Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic • Hacker News Board

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#121

Post by iLoveOncall » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:19 PM UTC

tiffanyh wrote: post #116

33MHz-i486 wrote: post #55

I think the subtext of the last few weeks is the Anthropic was becoming severely capacity constrained (or approaching that). They seem to have had to sign two somewhat adverse contracts with Amazon and Google in short succession. suddenly model quality is back up again.

That’s what’s needed when you go from $9B in ARR … to $30B in ARR literally just one quarter later . That kind of insane growth & demand is unprecedented at that scale. https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-c...

Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B.

Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#122

Post by politelemon » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC

altern8 wrote: post #51

urba_ wrote: post #28

I consider them competitors… This reminds me of Microsoft in 1997 investing $150 million in Apple, saving it from near bankruptcy

If I remember correctly, Microsoft allegedly did that for the very selfish reason of looking better in terms of being a monopoly.

Of course this is well known. Everything Microsoft does is for selfish capitalist reasons and everything Apple does is for altruistic philanthropic reasons.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#123

Post by siva7 » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:23 PM UTC

iLoveOncall wrote: post #121

tiffanyh wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s what’s needed when you go from $9B in ARR … to $30B in ARR literally just one quarter later . That kind of insane growth & demand is unprecedented at that scale. https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-c...

Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.

the fact!?

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#124

Post by pixl97 » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:24 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #83

afavour wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What backfired? I think it was psychological to a degree. For many consumers OpenAI, or at least ChatGPT was AI. The controversy was enough for folks to be introduced to competitors in the AI space and suddenly OpenAI's success felt a lot less inevitable. I agree with OP though that this won't actually be the cause of OpenAI's downfall, should it happen. But I still think it's an interesting inflection point.

> controversy was enough for folks to be introduced to competitors This is my suspicion. Consumers hadn’t previously heard of Anthropic and Claude. Now they had, particularly in cities. > this won't actually be the cause of OpenAI's downfall, should it happen. But I still think it's an interesting inflection point Also agree. Hence why I said “I don’t think” the fight is “the ultimate cause.”

Anecdotally a whole lot more people around me started using Anthropic models in the last few weeks and seem to like them more than OpenAI. For many of these people it was the second provider they ever used.

Of course this is part of what has lead to such insane demand and outages they've experienced since then.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#125

Post by senordevnyc » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:25 PM UTC

iLoveOncall wrote: post #121

tiffanyh wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s what’s needed when you go from $9B in ARR … to $30B in ARR literally just one quarter later . That kind of insane growth & demand is unprecedented at that scale. https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-c...

Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.

For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B.

Can you explain how that’d work? What would the $30B figure be based on if they only have $100 in revenue?

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#126

Post by IncreasePosts » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:27 PM UTC

throwawaytea wrote: post #45

If you added up all the major AI valuations, it's apparently worth more than products Americans constantly buy and rely on for their main life. So either AI is going to be involved in every Americans life to a large degree, and paying real money for, or these valuations are insanely wrong.

I'm not sure exactly what kind of point you are making but the valuations are at least nominally based on the expected value of the business far into the future and aren't comparable to, say, purchases done over a year despite both being denoted in dollars.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#127

Post by DavidSJ » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:27 PM UTC

senordevnyc wrote: post #125

iLoveOncall wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.

For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Can you explain how that’d work? What would the $30B figure be based on if they only have $100 in revenue?

There are about 30 million seconds in a year. If they made $100 over the last hundred milliseconds, then that’s $30B annualized.

(That said, their numbers are much realer than that.)

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#128

Post by KingMachiavelli » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:29 PM UTC

throwawaytea wrote: post #70

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's apparently worth more than products Americans constantly buy and rely on for their main life What are you counting in this category?

There are countless examples, but let's say Ford. Worth $150 billion, $50 billion not counting debt. My neighbors just gave Ford $60k. It'll be a while until my neighbor gives Anthropic $60k.

> My neighbors just gave Ford $60k. It'll be a while until my neighbor gives Anthropic $60k.

How much of that 60K does Ford actually keep? And how much will it be once BYD is allowed in the US? The forecast for Ford is pretty much only downwards, the possible upside on AI is huge.

If every company in the F500 starts spending $2000+ on AI credits per employee, then every consumer product will indirectly be funding AI companies. I think it's already the case that companies small enough to avoid/skip getting O365 or Google Suite subscriptions will pay for AI first.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#129

Post by siva7 » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:29 PM UTC

stephc_int13 wrote: post #78

My opinion about this is that Google see it as a way to weaken OpenAI, and few other side benefits, including the option to acquire Anthropic. And it may very well be bad news for OpenAI.

That boat has sailed off. Not even Google has the cash to buy a company valued at almost a trillion dollars.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#130

Post by nilkn » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 9:30 PM UTC

senordevnyc wrote: post #125

iLoveOncall wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.

For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Can you explain how that’d work? What would the $30B figure be based on if they only have $100 in revenue?

They're pointing out that run-rate revenue is based on essentially sampling revenue over some limited time interval, then extrapolating from there assuming revenue always occurs at the same rate (or greater) over all similar intervals in the future. More specifically, they're pointing out that estimates of ARR derived from this kind of sampling are fundamentally prone to error and can be arbitrarily inflated based on how the time interval is sampled.