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'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#81

Post by hvb2 »

logicchains wrote: post #23
ctime wrote: post #7

Between this and crypto cryptocurrencies (which obviously can be used to make bets) I don’t know which is more destructive to society

How is it even remotely as destructive as casinos, where the odds are always against you? From a probability perspective Polymarket is much more fair, as you actually have positive expected value if you have an information advantage.

I know a fair number of people who go to a casino, spend a pre determined amount of money and as such, have fun.

Also, in roulette there's nowhere to put your money on whether a countries leader will be dead by the end of the month

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#82

Post by GolfPopper »

echelon wrote: post #34
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.

Assassination markets where being discussed back in the 1990s.[1] I think it's been pretty clear for a while that "prediction" markets were going to arrive at the same place.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#83

Post by Eisenstein »

logicchains wrote: post #47
knappe wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article articulated this enough, I thought but I guess not. They're interfering with officially gathered data, used to forecast the weather. And they're not just gambling. They're also gaming the system to make money on it. This goes far beyond 'just gambling'.

>They're interfering with officially gathered data, used to forecast the weather. If that's illegal they should be prosecuted for that. Luxury goods create incentive for theft, but nobody suggests luxury goods stores should be banned to reduce the amount of theft.

Could you regulate the sale of luxury goods meaningfully without having negative impacts on necessary markets? Can you say the same about prediction markets?

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#84

Post by avidiax »

gizajob wrote: post #70
echelon wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.

Don’t even need a gambling marketplace for that - could already put a massive short on TSLA and have a pop at Elon if you were so motivated.

I don't think you even need to attack anybody to do this. Just have an AI media package ready for the top-N CEOs, and wait for any incident involving their name and "injured", "hospital", "attacked", etc. Then short the stock, go to social media and show the CEO being transported in an ambulance, or a gurney with a sheet over it, "X still missing", whatever.

Probably automatable, and simply counting on automated systems and panic selling. Might be possible just with the AI package these days (not even requiring a traditional media article).

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#85

Post by dugidugout »

strogonoff wrote: post #75

Betting against what is widely considered as “expected”, “reasonable” is such a major source of profit when one can influence the income. Whether it’s a temperature sensor one can breathe on or movement of troops one can control or influence[0], the idea is the same—except in one of the above you can add “death and suffering” in addition to some unfortunate gamblers losing their money. A depressing thought: it will o…

I don't mean to detract from your point, but regarding your footnote, you seemingly have. Unless it is in your writing style to make direct asides about how one may infer your message was procured.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#86

Post by j-bos »

ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

But why are they only using one sensor?

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#87

Post by samrus »

j-bos wrote: post #86
ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

But why are they only using one sensor?

Because we used to be a high trust society where degenrate gamblers wouldnt mess with scientific equipment to rip each other off

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#88

Post by alaudet »

vizzier wrote: post #53
alaudet wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that the genie is out of the bottle, even if you try to regulate it away it pops up in offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto. The ease with which polymarket can be manipulated is infinite because there are so many different random things you can bet on. It's a sign of our times and I don't think there is much that can be done about it by anyone.

> offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto. This vastly increases the barrier to entry for the normal person though. Is your position that just because laws don't work 100% of the time we shouldn't bother with them?

I didn't say that, you said that.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#90

Post by Dylan16807 »

dlenski wrote: post #46
echelon wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.

> Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. Quite likely it has already happened. There's been an enormous amount of betting on various military strikes by the Trump administration, much of which looks like insider trading. Almost certainly there have been insiders with money on the line who were financially motivated to launch lethal attacks, which they might have otherwise paused or delayed.

Why almost certainly?

It's much more effective to make the decision first and the bet second.

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