San Diego rents declined following surge in supply • Hacker News Board

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#111

Post by seanmcdirmid » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:27 AM UTC

darksaints wrote: post #73

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand picks up because supply increases, you will reach the previous equilibrium even with more supply. It isn’t rocket science, there is a price people are willing to pay to live in SD, and the market will keep gravitating to that price unless demand is somehow limited. The price people are willing to pay can even increase as density makes brings in things (eg culture, job opportunities) that make the city more…

At the levels of density seen in Paris, San Diego could house 16 million people. That's city proper. The metro area could house 226 million people. You're gonna have to do a lot better job convincing me that 16 million people would move to San Diego if they just built more housing. Let alone 226 million.

Twist do you think happens to every city that has reached 16 million people? Did they become more popular or less? Given that I’ve lived in a city of that size, my answer will differ from yours (they become more expensive, not less).

I’m confused on why you think paris is affordable and San Diego metro could somehow have enough water to grow to 220 million. The nearest comparison I can think of is south China Bay Area population (87 million), and if you think that those cities are affordable…I’m guessing we really have to agree to disagree.

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#112

Post by seanmcdirmid » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #67

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand picks up because supply increases, you will reach the previous equilibrium even with more supply. It isn’t rocket science, there is a price people are willing to pay to live in SD, and the market will keep gravitating to that price unless demand is somehow limited. The price people are willing to pay can even increase as density makes brings in things (eg culture, job opportunities) that make the city more…

Supply increased, rents declined.

Short term. Long term the market will change to equilibrium. If you are buying, just lock in lower housing prices now. If you are renting without rent control, you get one or two years of reasonable rates and then it will go nuts again.

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#113

Post by superfrank » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:29 AM UTC

dmitrygr wrote: post #2

Increase in supply lowers equilibrium price? Somebody, pinch me!

Except when it doesn't. From the same article, Seattle and Oakland had supply increase 13% and 6% respectively and both saw average rents go up. Long Beach, CA and Santa Ana, CA both had supply increase by over 10% and saw rents stay basically flat.

More supply generally will help, but it's not a silver bullet.

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#114

Post by nostrebored » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:31 AM UTC

pydry wrote: post #71

darksaints wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zoning that reduces buildable footprint and/or height artificially increases demand for land. If the only way to build a home is to buy a 9000 sqft lot, then my demand for land is 9000 sqft. If you can build 18 homes on that same lot, my demand for land is 450 sqft. Land definitely needs to be taxed, but not without the zoning changes first to allow more to be built on less.

Zoning is the hobby horse of property developers. They're endlessly frustrated by the way zoning prevents them from building the most profitable construction - no matter whether there is a good or a bad reason for it (sometimes it's good sometimes it's not). This inspires a lobbying and public outreach effort to try and convince people that relaxing zoning rules will fix everything . As with many corporate lobbied fo…

This is empirically not supported. Relaxing zoning rules works extremely well.

Look at Japan, look at any metropolitan U.S. city that has actually leaned into it. Europe has had mixed use zones for effectively centuries and is not the dystopia that NIMBYs proclaim will appear in the absence of zoning.

It is unpopular because we subsidize the lives and assets of people who “have things” through zoning policy that they make.

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#115

Post by LudwigNagasena » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:34 AM UTC

darksaints wrote: post #73

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand picks up because supply increases, you will reach the previous equilibrium even with more supply. It isn’t rocket science, there is a price people are willing to pay to live in SD, and the market will keep gravitating to that price unless demand is somehow limited. The price people are willing to pay can even increase as density makes brings in things (eg culture, job opportunities) that make the city more…

At the levels of density seen in Paris, San Diego could house 16 million people. That's city proper. The metro area could house 226 million people. You're gonna have to do a lot better job convincing me that 16 million people would move to San Diego if they just built more housing. Let alone 226 million.

Yet the rent in Paris is still too high for an average French resident; and while rent is lower than in San Diego, the price of an apartment is higher. And, of course, median salary in San Diego is far higher than in Paris.

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#116

Post by Dylan16807 » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:36 AM UTC

throw-undefined wrote: post #33

Detrytus wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, building luxury housing still helps, to some degree: the richest residents of the area would buy it, and they would sell their old house to someone slightly less rich, who in turn would sell their old house… At the end of this chain you get affordable housing.

> and they would sell their old house lol in reality they just keep their "investment" and, in some cases, decide to convert their old house to an airbnb for extra passive income

There's only so much demand for airbnb, and most of those kept houses would be rented out which still improves supply.

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#117

Post by LudwigNagasena » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC

verteu wrote: post #77

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand picks up because supply increases, you will reach the previous equilibrium even with more supply. It isn’t rocket science, there is a price people are willing to pay to live in SD, and the market will keep gravitating to that price unless demand is somehow limited. The price people are willing to pay can even increase as density makes brings in things (eg culture, job opportunities) that make the city more…

No, this is a false belief known as supply skepticism: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=supp...

Weird title for a paper that argues that "Government intervention is critical to ensure that supply is added at prices affordable to a range of incomes". I would personally classify that position as "supply skepticism".

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#118

Post by darksaints » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:40 AM UTC

LudwigNagasena wrote: post #108

exabrial wrote: post #10

Incredible. So what you're saying is... we should just build more housing? Who would have thought that was the answer?

There is abundance of housing. It's just that people want to live in big metro areas that have extreme concentration of economic opportunity and amenities. I don't understand how transforming every urban area into Kowloon Walled City will solve that unless your plan is to make it so dense that people will finally find it undesirable to live there?

At the density of Kowloon Walled City, the entire population of India could fit within the city limits of San Diego. Nobody is asking for that, silly.

We could 1.5x the density of San Diego and still have the livability of Copenhagen. We could 3x the density of San Diego and still have the livability of Vienna. We could 5x the density and still have the livability of Paris. 8x and still have the livability of Tokyo. We have a ridiculously low bar to pass, all we have to do is allow it.

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#119

Post by Izikiel43 » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:41 AM UTC

darksaints wrote: post #88

pydry wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zoning is the hobby horse of property developers. They're endlessly frustrated by the way zoning prevents them from building the most profitable construction - no matter whether there is a good or a bad reason for it (sometimes it's good sometimes it's not). This inspires a lobbying and public outreach effort to try and convince people that relaxing zoning rules will fix everything . As with many corporate lobbied fo…

TFA shows that it was zoning changes that allowed the influx of housing and lower prices. You can find similar articles across the country everywhere that has had significant relaxation of zoning restrictions, like in Minneapolis, Austin, and Seattle (just off the top of my head). This includes places where building code and permitting processes have gotten more arduous while the zoning was relaxed. I don't care if i…

> Seattle

Source for Seattle? I know there was a state law a couple years ago allowing for more housing, but I haven't seen reports of its effects.

Re: San Diego rents declined following surge in supply

#120

Post by marcosdumay » Wed, Apr 22, 2026, 4:42 AM UTC

exabrial wrote: post #10

Incredible. So what you're saying is... we should just build more housing? Who would have thought that was the answer?

Well, that will work in a 1M people city, but in larger ones you also have to fix transit.

Another impossible problem, that nobody has ever been able to discover the solution is to build mass transit. Maybe one day people will manage to solve it.