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America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

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Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#31
post #3

I was expecting a more nuanced article that talked about the “Suez Moment” in America but this is basically a (not even a good) critique of deindustrialization.

I don't expect anything from the guy who declared self driving cars are easy, everyone is just doing it wrong, and he could do it better in a just a year; 5 years ago. The fame totally went to his head :P It is somewhat common issue for Nobel award winners, in this case the scope is limited "I am great at security and reverse engineering, that makes me an expert for anything IT related".

> self driving cars are easy

Self-driving cars are easy though, 12-year-olds make them in high school STEM classes. You just give it a light sensor so it can follow a strip of white tape down the middle of the "road" and let it go from one place to the other.

Oh, until it hits an obstruction.

Okay well you add some sort of bumper switch to it so if it hits an obstruction it stops and backs up, to find a route round it.

Ah right, well, let's see, that didn't work so well when the obstruction was much smaller and squashier than the car.

Let's have some sort of distance sensors that - ah bollocks, they pick up everything including objects beside the road, and stop the car.

Okay what about some sort of camera and machine vision system? Great, that lets it "see" the road ahead and steer or brake to avoid obstacles! But it turns out it now needs to understand a bit of physics, at least enough to stop it booting it wide open through a sharp bend and ending up shiny side down.

Right so now it will drive at a sensible speed through bends, use a camera to look for obstructions, LIDAR to look for obstructions too, and it can actually follow road markings quite well, and even pick up speed from signs.

Ah. It can't actually be used around other vehicles because it can't anticipate what they're going to do, and keeps getting into bad situations that it then needs to brake and swerve to avoid.

Oh well, turns out self-driving cars aren't easy after all.

Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#32
> I read an article a while back about how, basically because labor unions became too much of a pain to deal with, they were just cut out of the conversation.

> This isn’t like when stuff is made in China. Those are basically American factories, just located in another country where you don’t have to negotiate with American labor.

I guess you do need to be socialist to formulate that first sentence in the active instead of passive voice or wonder how it even was possible that America could build American factories in other countries without negotiating with any labor (American or of the other country).

The part that is also missing is how China gladly took all the outsourced jobs, said "thanks guys!" and used them to become the rivaling power to the US it is today.

Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#33
> When I was younger I used to think more negatively about jobs, I even called it the jobs problem in my 2019 agentic coding startup template. I have since come around, the point of a society is the flourishing of its inhabitants.

That’s the key. The world is a delicate fabric that changes over time.

It’s nice (or frustrating) reading opinions. Forecasting the future is tricky.

While the world and us humans waste our time arguing, conflicting or dreaming, earth and the universe can easily introduce earthquakes, meteors and other unforeseen events that will have more impact than human made events we already cannot completely forecast.

Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it's a very short-sighted article. Taking a quote like this: > I can’t believe those who seriously try and say America’s value is in consuming. as a case against outsourcing manufacturing really doesn't understand the value that societies create when they are on the forefront of innovation. Maybe, just maybe , at a certain point physical labour is not the best way to use your working population, but instead, you…

China is at the forefront of innovation. America is not, except for financial innovation a.k.a. the best ways to get money out of people without doing actual work.

China is a the forefront of catching up. Don't mistake that for innovation. China isn't building the best chips, that's Taiwan with really Netherlands doing the hard part. China is catching up to European car makers except they've largely caught up to Tesla in the powertrain (I partly blame that on Americans boycotting Tesla for silly political reasons). In the AI space obviously China is just running after playing catch up. Biology, catch up. Chemistry, catch up. Physics, catch up.

Where is China leading?

Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#35
A problem with politics now is it becomes a debate on Trump and sidesteps existential problems that we're facing and in favor of dunking on the other party. Stocks are going up when manufacturing isn't and the clumsy tarrif system we slapped on top of our economy isn't going to right the ship. I think the article is on the right track as we probably need more jobs related to building physical goods and not inflating the price of financial products. I'm just not sure if it goes far enough into a positive vision on what we should do to correct that.

Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#36

The Chinese are not worried about AI taking anyone's job. In fact they're excited by it. For some reason, there is this unbelievably thick air of paranoia in America where everyone is just waiting for the day when their job will go away. To a point where I think it should be classified as mass hysteria and looked into by public health authorities. We should all introspect why so many of us perceive America as this ve…

To be fair, losing your job in America is a lot scarier than in most countries; especially when your whole industry is affected and your skill set has become obsolete. There’s not much of a social safety net to catch you.

Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#37
post #36

The Chinese are not worried about AI taking anyone's job. In fact they're excited by it. For some reason, there is this unbelievably thick air of paranoia in America where everyone is just waiting for the day when their job will go away. To a point where I think it should be classified as mass hysteria and looked into by public health authorities. We should all introspect why so many of us perceive America as this ve…

To be fair, losing your job in America is a lot scarier than in most countries; especially when your whole industry is affected and your skill set has become obsolete. There’s not much of a social safety net to catch you.

> losing your job in America is a lot scarier than in most countries

Compared with China?

Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#39
post #14

The article is certainly firebranding, but the core tenet strikes a valid point: how has the US lost the plot within such a short time? How did it go from the flag bearer of freedom and progress to isolationist bully that wants to invade Greenland and become best friends with Russia? From the outside it is really hard to comprehend. Was it FoxNews that poisoned the American mind or the social media brainwashing? How…

It hasn't been a short time, it's been a gradual process. I would look for example at the trust in congress over time.

https://www.pew.org/en/trend/archive/fall-2024/americans-dee...

Re: America Lost the Mandate of Heaven

#40
post #36

The Chinese are not worried about AI taking anyone's job. In fact they're excited by it. For some reason, there is this unbelievably thick air of paranoia in America where everyone is just waiting for the day when their job will go away. To a point where I think it should be classified as mass hysteria and looked into by public health authorities. We should all introspect why so many of us perceive America as this ve…

To be fair, losing your job in America is a lot scarier than in most countries; especially when your whole industry is affected and your skill set has become obsolete. There’s not much of a social safety net to catch you.

The belief that there is no safety net is also part of the paranoia that I'm referring to. America is actually one of the most welfarist states in the world.
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