Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

e360.yale.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 183 posts

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#51

Post by UltraSane »

contubernio wrote: post #29
mchusma wrote: post #3

I do think the Iran crisis should continue to push countries towards nuclear + solar. Like Ukraine helped shift some in Europe back to supporting nuclear after foolishly shutting down reactors.

The wars in Ukraine and irán have also highlighted what a horrendous insecurity nuclear power plants are. A direct missile attack on one could be catastrophic. The idea that such will never happen is as silly as the idea that there will never be an accident or a tsunami. But passive safety won't stop a missile.

Saying humanity should never use nuclear energy just because someone might shoot a missile at it is incredibly stupid when CO2 emissions are causing climate change.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#52

Post by foobarian »

senko wrote: post #35
contubernio wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wars in Ukraine and irán have also highlighted what a horrendous insecurity nuclear power plants are. A direct missile attack on one could be catastrophic. The idea that such will never happen is as silly as the idea that there will never be an accident or a tsunami. But passive safety won't stop a missile.

> what a horrendous insecurity nuclear power plants are. A direct missile attack on one could be catastrophic The same holds for hydro. Even worse, there would be no time for evacuation. Yet nobody is considering banning dams.

Dams are just too good a source to ban them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medog_Hydropower_Station 60 GW planned capacity!

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#53

Post by lukeschlather »

dummydummy1234 wrote: post #13
pstuart wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A promise of Nuclear SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) is that they could be dropped into existing coal fired power plants and leverage the existing power generation equipment. Apparently they are failing to attain traction because despite the promise of lower cost reactors due to them no longer being bespoke, their LCOE cannot compete with renewables. I'd argue that we should subsidize those and help make them happen NO…

How much is industrial scale batteries for solar?

The LCOE is better than nuclear and nuclear is not getting cheaper while industrial scale batteries continue to get cheaper.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#54

Post by UltraSane »

bluGill wrote: post #7
mchusma wrote: post #3

I do think the Iran crisis should continue to push countries towards nuclear + solar. Like Ukraine helped shift some in Europe back to supporting nuclear after foolishly shutting down reactors.

nuclear is not useful today. It is too slow to change output as load changes. We need to focus on storage for all the excess power renewables give at the best case, shifting that to worst case-

Stored electricity is much more expensive than nuclear electricity. To replace 1 GW of nuclear running at 92% CF with solar+storage, you need 3-4 GW of solar nameplate plus enough storage to cover nighttime AND multi-day cloudy periods AND seasonal winter deficit. The seasonal piece is what blows up the cost, you'd need weeks of storage, which at current Li-ion prices is economically absurd ($1000s/MWh delivered).

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#55

Post by robrain »

downrightmike wrote: post #39
gpm wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The shift in Canada predates the oil crisis the US just created... it dates back to at least the election a year ago. I strongly suspect it was primarily created by the US threatening to annex us via "economic force" and thus creating a need to prioritize our short term economic strength over longer term charity things like climate change.

Plus if Canada warms up, hey win win

I live in a ski resort, you insensitive clod /s

Warmer over here in the west means wetter, which means land slides and floods (plus more wild fires in drier seasons). It also means a pivot in tourism (from glaciers, ski resorts, frozen north) to well, who knows what at this stage.

Logging also becomes even less advisable (see land slides etc.).

So less "hey win win" (with an implied wink), more "hey win, lose, lose, ?".

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#56

Post by epistasis »

KaiserPro wrote: post #44
epistasis wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now renewables and storage are cheaper than most new fossil fuel types of generation. The cheapest new fossil fuel generation, gas, is bottlenecked by limited capacity to build new turbines currently. So if you look at new resources being added to the grid, it's all solar, wind, storage, and a tiny bit of new fossil gas generation. The biggest impediment to more renewables is no longer cost, it's politics and r…

> is bottlenecked by limited capacity to build new turbines currently. its bottlenecked by price. The reason why the UK's electricity is so fucking expensive is because its pegged to international gas prices

My comment, like the linked article, was focused entirely on the US's situation, which has abundant fossil gas to the point that many frackers burn it as a waste product.

I'd totally agree for UK and continental Europe. The difference between oil and gas is massive on the distribution angle, oil moves easily as long as there's not a naval blockade, but fossil gas requires super super expensive infrastructure either via pipeline or LNG. And with nearly all fossil fuel companies in the last stages of their life, trying to maximize profits on existing capital, it's hard to get investor support to buy infrastructure that costs multiple billions and has limited lifetime. I don't know the details in Europe, but it seems like this phasing out of infrastructure as the transition happens is a major hassle... I'd love any links on that sort of info about Europe.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#57

Post by UltraSane »

epistasis wrote: post #21
nradov wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we want to have an industrial economy with 24×7 heavy manufacturing then we need nuclear power for the base load. There's no need to change output much. The amount of batteries needed to keep a huge factory running is ridiculous.

The need for nuclear is simply not clear. Storage has advance so quickly, while nuclear tech has remained stagnant or even gotten more expensive. Eve China, the best nuclear power builders out there, are shifting away from massive nuclear to storage and wind and solar. Without a major technological innovation in the nuclear power space, I don't see how it can compete, except at the poles and in niches with very poor…

Grid Storage is very expensive and right now only has a few hours of capacity. We would need weeks to really replace nuclear.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#58

Post by epistasis »

dylan604 wrote: post #19
epistasis wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now renewables and storage are cheaper than most new fossil fuel types of generation. The cheapest new fossil fuel generation, gas, is bottlenecked by limited capacity to build new turbines currently. So if you look at new resources being added to the grid, it's all solar, wind, storage, and a tiny bit of new fossil gas generation. The biggest impediment to more renewables is no longer cost, it's politics and r…

You seem to be focused on generation and delivery costs. Fossil fuels like coal needs to be mined and then shipped to the power plants.

I'm including the costs of fossil fuel extraction in the comparison here; in the US fossil gas is super super cheap which makes it more competitive with solar and storage than in most places.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#59

Post by mekdoonggi »

Extending the life of existing power infra is low-hanging fruit for more power short term, but the economics of renewables are just unstoppable.

Article states 93% of new generation capacity was renewable which is good, but I can sense that nimbyism is growing towards wind and solar. Not to mention the animus towards China who has wisely cornered manufacturing of these.

The US has shot itself in the foot because of its energy dependence on its own energy source. The resource curse strikes again.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#60

Post by UltraSane »

energy123 wrote: post #31
nradov wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we want to have an industrial economy with 24×7 heavy manufacturing then we need nuclear power for the base load. There's no need to change output much. The amount of batteries needed to keep a huge factory running is ridiculous.

The world's biggest industrial economy, China, installed about 300x more renewable energy than nuclear last year. New nuclear sucks, and baseload is a false concept that can (and is) being synthetically replicated with over-building + storage + transmission + peaking.

Firm/dispatchable capacity that can run for arbitrary durations is required unless you've solved seasonal storage.

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(18)30386-6

Firm low-carbon resources consistently lower decarbonized electricity system costs

• Availability of firm low-carbon resources reduces costs 10%–62% in zero-CO2 cases

• Without these resources, electricity costs rise rapidly as CO2 limits near zero

• Batteries and demand flexibility do not substitute for firm low-carbon resources

Post reply on HN