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You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#41

Post by ivankirigin »

palish wrote: post #11
aandreev wrote: post #8

You make a surprisingly random assumption (500 apps) and then base your entire post around statistical interpretations of that assumption. Bravo! You should become an economist.

Ok. There were 435 applications for this summer. I assume that YCombinator's traffic has been growing steadily and that more hackers have been captivated by YC, so therefore more will apply. 65 more probably isn't too far off the mark. As for the other assumption that YC will accept more than they did last time, I'm basing that off of Paul's words. Can I still become an economist?

Some recommendations for intro to econ books :)

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2007/08/for_introductor_...

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#42

Post by rms »

palish wrote: post #11
aandreev wrote: post #8

You make a surprisingly random assumption (500 apps) and then base your entire post around statistical interpretations of that assumption. Bravo! You should become an economist.

Ok. There were 435 applications for this summer. I assume that YCombinator's traffic has been growing steadily and that more hackers have been captivated by YC, so therefore more will apply. 65 more probably isn't too far off the mark. As for the other assumption that YC will accept more than they did last time, I'm basing that off of Paul's words. Can I still become an economist?

Hey, the great economists are the ones who get really good at just making shit up.

Check out Confessions of an Economic Hit Man. http://books.google.com/books?id=nJFFrLX-924C

Isohunt also shows me the book and audio book is available free online.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#43

Post by portLAN »

vlad wrote: post #39
portLAN wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a misinterpretation. Maybe this quote will explain it better: "I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to…

No, there's no "misinterpretation." I hope you respect that I choose to follow more credible sources. It's very hard to take somebody's advice who we don't know. Maybe you care to share your background? Thanks for the discussion! I DO want to work on what I want to work on, but with investment and other people (which might not be exactly what I or my team envisioned, of course.)

> I DO want to work on what I want to work on

That's funny, you just spent several messages reiterating that you didn't care what project you worked on.

To me, "please give me money and great people to work with" is not a convincing pitch. Plus, if I already have a group of great people working on something, why would I want to burden them with an additional person who had no particular interest in what they were working on?

On the other hand, if you were really interested in a particular problem domain and had expertise or at least enthusiasm for it specifically, then you're giving investors a more compelling reason to put their money behind you. Remember that investors aren't only the VCs and angels, they're the people you're working with. They have a lot invested, too.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#44

Post by brlewis »

portLAN wrote: post #40
asdflkj wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Subjective preference" and "whim" are two completely different things. Let's look at the post that started all of this: "Don't leave your fate up to someone else's whim". If you replace that with "Don't leave your fate up to someone else's subjective preference", that doesn't sound quite so undeniably prudent anymore, does it? Especially considering that the "someone else" in question is highly authoritative on the…

You might find it helpful to check the definition. Amer. Heritage: whim: "Arbitrary thought or impulse". Arbitrary: "Based on or subject to individual judgment or preference". > that doesn't sound quite so undeniably prudent anymore, does it? Good thing it's definitionally equivalent and I used the form that would provoke a stronger visceral response, in order to get the idea across more forcefully. YC should just be…

> Starting your own investment company doesn't make you an expert on people and ideas

True, but advising dozens of startups, some of which became highly successful, does. Especially when your investment money came from the sale of your own successful startup.

"Whim" and "arbitrary" have a connotation of carelessness; I don't think they fit here.

Still, there's truth in what you're saying: The large number of applications necessitates that they use heuristics and gut feelings to choose whom to interview. Their rejection letter admits that the process isn't perfect, and it would be unwise to give up on an idea on the basis of a YC rejection.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#45

Post by asdflkj »

portLAN wrote: post #40
asdflkj wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Subjective preference" and "whim" are two completely different things. Let's look at the post that started all of this: "Don't leave your fate up to someone else's whim". If you replace that with "Don't leave your fate up to someone else's subjective preference", that doesn't sound quite so undeniably prudent anymore, does it? Especially considering that the "someone else" in question is highly authoritative on the…

You might find it helpful to check the definition. Amer. Heritage: whim: "Arbitrary thought or impulse". Arbitrary: "Based on or subject to individual judgment or preference". > that doesn't sound quite so undeniably prudent anymore, does it? Good thing it's definitionally equivalent and I used the form that would provoke a stronger visceral response, in order to get the idea across more forcefully. YC should just be…

The word "arbitrary" has several meanings, but for each instance of its use, there is only one meaning, and the context determines which one it is. In the definition of "whim", the meaning of "arbitrary" is not one you mentioned, but this one: "Determined by chance, whim, or impulse, and not by necessity, reason, or principle". Unfortunately, that makes it a bit circular. Let's try another dictionary. Webster gives "existing or coming about seemingly at random or by chance or as a capricious and unreasonable act of will", which I think is suitable in that context.

Of course, your judgment of what is suitable in the context may be different from mine, but there is at least one thing that speaks in my favor: your very own claim that your version "would provoke stronger visceral response". Why would it, if its meaning was the same?

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#46

Post by [deleted] »

portLAN wrote: post #43
vlad wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, there's no "misinterpretation." I hope you respect that I choose to follow more credible sources. It's very hard to take somebody's advice who we don't know. Maybe you care to share your background? Thanks for the discussion! I DO want to work on what I want to work on, but with investment and other people (which might not be exactly what I or my team envisioned, of course.)

> I DO want to work on what I want to work on That's funny, you just spent several messages reiterating that you didn't care what project you worked on. To me, "please give me money and great people to work with" is not a convincing pitch. Plus, if I already have a group of great people working on something, why would I want to burden them with an additional person who had no particular interest in what they were wor…

[deleted]

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#47

Post by nostrademons »

rokhayakebe wrote: post #30
vlad wrote: post #2

Thanks for your advice; I just submitted 20 applications. :) On a serious note, can one apply as a single hacker who doesn't care about which project he takes on?

Does anyone know if you get some feedback when you apply early?

In the last round, we got an e-mail from PG back within hours. It said, basically, "Too many uncommitted founders. Ditch some and hire them back as employees when you have money." We had submitted one day before the deadline (I'd thought it was half an hour actually...I misunderstood the deadline), and he encouraged us to resubmit if we could deal with the founder issue.

We ended up getting rejected anyway, but he turned out to be right. Basically, if there's an obvious problem with the application, he'll point it out to you. Don't expect him to write volumes or fix something that's so far out in left field that it's hopeless, though. Maybe a paragraph or so.

I also got back a long response from Trevor when I applied to SFP05. In retrospect it had a lot of good points, though I wasn't ready to hear them at the time. I doubt they have time to do that sort of detailed fixes/clarifications now, though.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#48

Post by vlad »

portLAN wrote: post #43
vlad wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, there's no "misinterpretation." I hope you respect that I choose to follow more credible sources. It's very hard to take somebody's advice who we don't know. Maybe you care to share your background? Thanks for the discussion! I DO want to work on what I want to work on, but with investment and other people (which might not be exactly what I or my team envisioned, of course.)

> I DO want to work on what I want to work on That's funny, you just spent several messages reiterating that you didn't care what project you worked on. To me, "please give me money and great people to work with" is not a convincing pitch. Plus, if I already have a group of great people working on something, why would I want to burden them with an additional person who had no particular interest in what they were wor…

I don't think that's what you said in the other posts. I find it very hard to follow your posts because you've made about 30 different points. At this time, there are more credible resources than yourself I choose to follow. I hope you respect that. If you would like to share your credentials and background like I have, then by all means.

I wish you well, and thanks for the discussion.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#49

Post by portLAN »

asdflkj wrote: post #45
portLAN wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might find it helpful to check the definition. Amer. Heritage: whim: "Arbitrary thought or impulse". Arbitrary: "Based on or subject to individual judgment or preference". > that doesn't sound quite so undeniably prudent anymore, does it? Good thing it's definitionally equivalent and I used the form that would provoke a stronger visceral response, in order to get the idea across more forcefully. YC should just be…

The word "arbitrary" has several meanings, but for each instance of its use, there is only one meaning, and the context determines which one it is. In the definition of "whim", the meaning of "arbitrary" is not one you mentioned, but this one: "Determined by chance, whim, or impulse, and not by necessity, reason, or principle". Unfortunately, that makes it a bit circular. Let's try another dictionary. Webster gives "…

> In the definition of "whim", the meaning of "arbitrary" is not one you mentioned

It most certainly is: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/whim

> Why would it, if its meaning was the same?

You may as well ask, "Why do words matter?"

You're unsuccessfully trying to argue an academic point while ignoring the basic gist of the decision, which is de facto one of considerable extrapolation. There simply isn't enough data in many cases to make a decision based on reason; that leaves whim. Even in cases where the data is obvious, whim comes into play, which is why Cisco had to go to 70 or 80 venture capitalists despite doing hundreds of thousands a month in business already without outside investment. Other VCs' stories of "the one that got away" involve a long-haired Steve Jobs.

This is merely human nature. It's no particular indictment of YC, everyone does it. I'm advocating for not leaving your decision of what to do with your life up to any single investor, or indeed, a series of 70 or 80 of them.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#50

Post by portLAN »

brlewis wrote: post #44
portLAN wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might find it helpful to check the definition. Amer. Heritage: whim: "Arbitrary thought or impulse". Arbitrary: "Based on or subject to individual judgment or preference". > that doesn't sound quite so undeniably prudent anymore, does it? Good thing it's definitionally equivalent and I used the form that would provoke a stronger visceral response, in order to get the idea across more forcefully. YC should just be…

> Starting your own investment company doesn't make you an expert on people and ideas True, but advising dozens of startups, some of which became highly successful, does. Especially when your investment money came from the sale of your own successful startup. "Whim" and "arbitrary" have a connotation of carelessness; I don't think they fit here. Still, there's truth in what you're saying: The large number of applicat…

> True, but advising dozens of startups, some of which became highly successful, does.

I would be surprised if anyone on YC news couldn't get a few successes out of 60 start-ups.

YC's had its share of duds as well. And various times we've heard they're not far in the black; considering the micro-investments they're making, that doesn't strongly support the notion that they are especially successful.

> "Whim" and "arbitrary" have a connotation of carelessness; I don't think they fit here.

I'm sure they are careful in certain ways but there's only so much to be gleaned from a brief application, which may not include the follow-up 10-minute interview. Three people can't advise 60 existing start-ups and do due diligence on 500 more. Not to mention, a substantial number of people haven't even built anything, which means they really have no choice but to judge the book by its cover. There are always snap judgements and rush decisions in any big application process.

Hence, whim.

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