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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#781

Post by mizzao »

simonh wrote: post #294
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

So this 10 point plan that was “not good enough” according to Trump on Monday 6th April, now as the deadline looms, it’s suddenly “a workable basis” for negotiations? Frankly if Iran get nothing more than a complete lifting of sanctions this would be a massive climb down for the US.

Trump's rhetoric was all bluster, he actually had no leverage and was unwilling to pay the cost to continue the war (mostly in terms of cost to himself). He needed an offramp and this was it.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#783

Post by rcbdev »

helo4362 wrote: post #765
karim79 wrote: post #614

This is Israel's "business as usual" stuff. Mowing the lawn, fake ceasefire, distraction, expansion and greater Israel project let's go! stuff. Stretch goal is to make Iran a failed state. Primary goal is distraction from the very real annexation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, one war crime at a time.

What option is there for israel.

The only endgame I see for the region is sadly the complete and utter annihilation of all civilizations there, possibly through nuclear means.

I do not say this lightly and I say it with a deep sadness in my heart for the people of the middle east, but also with the sober realization that this is the only end of the path that is currently walked.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#784

Post by Den_VR »

krembo wrote: post #778

It's interesting how the hackernews-biased views of the war outcomes don't align with how Iranians themselves see that. For instance you can translate from persian the following geopolitical view which will shed a totally different light on the situation to whoever depends solely on hn comments https://x.com/i/status/2041693098833518976

Posted from Maryland?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#785

Post by chrisjj »

Invictus0 wrote: post #443
Aloisius wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

Either way, it's maximalist aims, not realistic aims. Negotiations will obviously converge closer to US aims since Iran has no leverage.

> Iran has no leverage.

Patently false. Else there'd be no ceasefire.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#786

Post by anovikov »

karim79 wrote: post #614

This is Israel's "business as usual" stuff. Mowing the lawn, fake ceasefire, distraction, expansion and greater Israel project let's go! stuff. Stretch goal is to make Iran a failed state. Primary goal is distraction from the very real annexation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, one war crime at a time.

[flagged]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#787

Post by EmptyCoffeeCup »

fernandopj wrote: post #340
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have the U.S. and Iran agreed the points? Or is this two weeks to hammer them down?

Two weeks of open Strait to nail the final version, yes. I guess gas prices in US will cool down to pre-war price averages and the pressure not to resume aggression will be huge.

No chance. Up like a rocket, down like a feather.

and that's without considering the lost production capacity.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#788

Post by contingencies »

zacksiri wrote: post #768

I hope that one day humanity learns that in war there are no winners. We're all just brothers and sisters born on different corners of the planet. We share the same home. I hope that we stop attacking one another and find peace and work together as a race to overcome our challenges.

Amen. Also, nature is awesome and we live in a period of technological plenty and instant global communication with arbitrary knowledge and decent translation available in seconds, so why are we still acting like lunatics and hating on groups?

Parents: stop teaching your children to identify with irrelevant concepts of ethno-nationalism, and instead teach them to be globalist scientists with empathy.

Nationalismus ist eine Kinderkrankheit. Die Masern der Menschheit. ("Nationalism is an infantile disease: the measles of mankind") - Albert Einstein, 1929. Who, incidentally, turned down the presidency of Israel.

"Should we be unable to find a way to honest cooperation and honest pacts with the Arabs, then we have learned absolutely nothing during our two thousand years of suffering and deserve all that will come to us." - Einstein on Israel, late 1920s.

PLUR

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#789

Post by aucisson_masque »

I can't figure out what was even USA goal in this war ? they have said everything and it's contrary, so there is no way to know if they won or if they lost. I guess it's a smart move.

But on the other hand,

Iran still has enriched uranium, nuclear facilities and now they even have put in the agreement a recognition of Iran's right to seek nuclear technology.

Iran missiles.. they still shoot them and there is nothing to prevent them to build more. They are going to get a big cash-flow with that control of the Detroit, recognized in the 10 point agreement.

Iran government has not been replaced. I'd say it's even stronger now that it 'won' the war (that's the way they're going to show it on national television) and they even asked to get UN sanctions lifted. That will bring them some legitimacy back.

What other usa war goal were proclaimed ?

I vaguely remember a national security thing where Iran was going to bomb America. I guess the war didn't prevent that because Iran did kill American soldiers and caused billions of $ in loss.

Iran goal on the other hand ?

Destroy the evil American ? They weren't going to anyway.

Survive ? I guess they did.

And now the population that was supporting their government is even more radicalized.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#790

Post by throawayonthe »

anovikov wrote: post #786
karim79 wrote: post #614

This is Israel's "business as usual" stuff. Mowing the lawn, fake ceasefire, distraction, expansion and greater Israel project let's go! stuff. Stretch goal is to make Iran a failed state. Primary goal is distraction from the very real annexation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, one war crime at a time.

[flagged]

What do you mean?
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