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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The strait is barely mined, at most a few dozen mines were placed. Multiple ships have transited through in Omani waters since the start of the conflict. So far none have been struck by mines. The threat why boats do not cross are Iranian missiles / drones striking ships attempting to pass thru, without paying a protection fee. It's basically a terrorism protection fee.

does policemen shooting at you when you don't listen to his orders is considered terorism? i would say its just enforcing tax collection.

Iran doesn't have legal control over the entire strait; approx half of the strait is Iranian territorial waters and the other half is Omani territorial waters.

For Iran's toll system to work, they would need to strike at ships sailing in Omani territorial waters, which is an act of war.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#562
post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

In most wars, everybody loses. The best Iran could hope for given its inevitable defeat by a far superior aggressor was to deny the invader any kind of spoils. And by those standards they seem to be succeeding. So now we have a pointless war that has resulted in thousands of dead with no tangible benefit to anybody, except of course those cronies of the administration doing insider trading.

> The best Iran could hope for given its inevitable defeat by a far superior aggressor was to deny the invader any kind of spoils

clearly not, they had an already planned goal to remove the american ability to impose sanctions, and implemented the plan, while sufferjng a ton of losses to personel and materiel.

this is a major improvement from where the US could impose sanctions and states would comply. surviving iranians are in a much better position now than before the war

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#563

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain.

So I think there will be another leader elected soon.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#564

Let's not forget the road to war started in 2016 when Trump walked into the White House at withdrew from the JCPOA. He's wanted the war for years, got it, and lost it.

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One supreme leader replaced by another, even more hardline, supreme leader. Trump failed.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#565

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Why would the US accept these terms? They could just keep crippling Iran’s infrastructure and fuel supply and more until their new leadership fractures. Is this entirely about midterm elections?

We could have done that, but Donny Two-Scoops had to go and threaten them with total destruction. That limited his options greatly.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#566
post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

I don't think its a victory for either Iran or the US. Iran suffered a lot of losses in terms of people and widescale destruction of infrastructure. But the US lost too, we come out of this war looking much weaker and more chaotic than we did going in, not to mention the amount of money we poured into it while accomplishing nothing (nothing we destroyed in Iran was a threat to us until we bombed them in the first pla…

iran paid costs they expected to pay beforehand, but the result of negotation is that they dont need to give the concessions they were previously willing to give.

thats a pretty clear win. they paid a heavy cost for it sure, and war is expensive, but as a negotiation tactic goes, doing the war was a success

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#567
Aside:

We should not make fun of both of these lying cheating idiots in charge of either faction.

Look, it's really easy to dunk on them, like super easy. This is a very dumb war and will continue to be so, we all can see that.

But both sides are in a escalate-to-deescalate trap. Neither wants to back down in order to save face. So they can only make things worse.

And things can get a lot worse.

Lots of people legitimately thought that Tehran was going to be a glowing hole by the time you are reading this. That would have been ~17 million lives wiped out. A ground war is a generation in each country that is just decimated like Ukraine is seeing. Already there has been far too much death and destruction, too many children that are now without parents, too many parents now without children.

If avoiding that means not dunking on these barbarous morons for a little while, so be it, a small price.

I know that some random internet comments are about as important as the fly on a horse's ass is to a hurricane, but it has to start somewhere.

I'm not saying we should not hold them to account. No, this mess is maybe something that will snap everyone out of it, it's already so dumb and bad. They deserve, like we all do, the best justice we can give them. And it will not be kind to either side, we all know that.

But, let them have this win. Do the best we can to encourage others to let both sides walk away from this horrible trap. If the do so scot free, hey, that's a win in all of our books.

Let Donny strut about, walk away. Stop it with the TACO nonsense. Let him feel like a big man, a winner, whatever his little pudding brain needs.

Just let the war end before it gets even more out of hand.

Before even more babies have only pictures and stories to know their father by.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is one thing but there is no possible way Israel will stop bombing. They will openly say they will, and continue to do so. It just gives them more breathing room to calculate bigger and more serious strikes. Israel has literally nothing to lose. The US is taking all the heat for any actions in Iran. Israel and Iran are mortal enemies, one can not continue to exist while the other lives, this is how they view i…

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#569

If the USA walks away and lets every other country pay a new fee to Iran… That would be interesting…

It will not happen. The only way Iran can enforce the fee is by actually shooting missiles at ships that don't pay. This is an act of war and terrorism; and in our current international order, is not viable solution. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other gulf countries, will never agree to it. Another reason it won't work -- by Iran's logic, every nation adjacent to a strait of water can levy a toll on ships that pass thr…

Gibraltar's political situation is what it is because this was sorted out in the Treaty of Utrecht three hundred years ago, and Europe got very tired of leaders that thought they could redraw the map at the cost of millions of lives.

Probably the best we can expect from Iran is a frozen conflict like Korea or Cyprus, that stays frozen.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#570

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

> much younger and more formidable Khameini

Formidable?

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