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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

551–560 of 1001 posts

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#551
If Israel actually stops attacking Iran, that will be a win for the world. Will it happen? I doubt it. The last thing Netanyahu wants is a ceasefire or diplomacy. I think even if Trump tells him to stop he'll keep going.

The furniture salesman knows he's in trouble for the all the illegal gifts he has received and all the other horrific crimes he has committed. He'll hold on for as long as he can. The world be damned.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#552

I've been calling my reps and demanding they impeach Trump and Hegseth and get in contact with Doug Burgum and get going on the 25th amendment.

Kamala Harris would have started this exact same war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48DxQTPOouU

Sometimes, it doesn't matter who you vote for.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

1. Why pretend like you have any insight into the state of Iranian uranium? Just immediately makes you unreliable. 2. Ah yes, "supreme leader" doesn't sound "top down" at all 3. If by "still operating" you mean, not shooting missiles out of fear of getting destroyed. Sure. But that's silly. 4. For now. But very unlikely to last, imo. 6. "IRGC stronger than ever" is an insane take. How could they be stronger than befo…

you seems very confident about 30k casualties propagated by western media. all we, in the south east, see from west media and leader are just lies and hypocrisy

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#554
This is basically a win for Iran.

1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini.

2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”.

3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them.

4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if anyone messes with them they’ll close the straight. Then gas prices go up. Then your own domestic pop gets pissed. Then your chances of re-election drop.

5. Destabilised the whole region costing the ME lots and lots of money.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

> They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission This is fake Iranian propaganda. It makes no logical sense. The force sent to extract the F15 officer (approx 2 C130s of equipment) is far to small to retrieve tons of nuclear material stored at Isfahan. > Military apparatus is intact No, the IRGC is struggling. After weeks of bombardment, they are unable to provide food or basic supplies for its own…

I basically believe you're right, but I can't wrap my head around this: How is it that they still have any control at all of the strait after all of this? Is their significantly depleted missile force enough of a threat as long as they have any credible capability whatsoever left?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#556

How does anyone just open a strait that has mines in it in 2 weeks?

The strait is barely mined, at most a few dozen mines were placed. Multiple ships have transited through in Omani waters since the start of the conflict. So far none have been struck by mines. The threat why boats do not cross are Iranian missiles / drones striking ships attempting to pass thru, without paying a protection fee. It's basically a terrorism protection fee.

does policemen shooting at you when you don't listen to his orders is considered terorism? i would say its just enforcing tax collection.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#557

Let's not forget the road to war started in 2016 when Trump walked into the White House at withdrew from the JCPOA. He's wanted the war for years, got it, and lost it.

JCPOA was a really stupid, badly designed deal, it never placed any limits on missile or drone production. Obama wanted a deal badly, and it was rushed through negotiations without addressing this point for a quick political win. Iran kept developing its ballistic missiles and drone program even after the deal was signed, and a decade later, Iran has hundreds of thousands of drones and 20,000+ ballistic missiles. A t…

The nuclear program is orders of magnitude more important than everything else. If you think JCPOA was bad, take a look at Iran's 10 point plan.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#558
post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

All policy aimed at preventing nuclear Iran has one goal: buy time. I think it is hard to argue that time has not been bought (though how much and whether the price was right is another question). The only semi-stable long term option is a friendly Iranian government. The IRGC's main purpose is to occupy Iran, so anything that makes them weaker, less stable and more decentralized improves the odds of successful inter…

> It is really hard for me to see how any of this has made the IRGC more stable in the long run.

It's not really that hard to see - if you open your eyes.

If you refuse to do that, to the point where you see nothing but the hint of a silver lining in every carcinogenic cloud, then yeah I guess things must look pretty silvery.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#559

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

Yup, and it's a demonstration that the US is unable to just impose its will wherever it wants, making the US look weaker.

Failure all around.

But no doubt Trump and his people will tell the world what an amazing success the whole thing was, and how they exceeded all their goals, whatever those goals might have been.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#560

The fact that so many people on this thread believe any of this is real is really a sobering reminder. The entire thing, top to bottom, is theater.

To which extent exactly? The images of destruction are faked?

I know what you're saying just not sure how literally to take your words

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