US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#371

Post by stinkbeetle » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:16 AM UTC

keyle wrote: post #339

chasd00 wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Posts like this from the HN community are almost surreal. Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue. This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking, no country has agreed to anything on it. How is this missed on the community here?

Who knew tech employees weren't exactly across international politics.

No it would be trivial to gain a thorough understanding of Middle East politics and the oil market for an enlightened people who were able to become foremost experts in epidemiology, molecular biology, global supply chain logistics, the war in Ukraine, semiconductor manufacturing, and many other fields entirely self-taught simply by obsessively reading social media and wikipedia.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#372

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:16 AM UTC

swat535 wrote: post #352

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#373

Post by hackable_sand » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:16 AM UTC

nunez wrote: post #258

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Did we get "The Art of the Deal"'ed?

Someone is experiencing materiel gain, that's for sure.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#374

Post by estearum » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:16 AM UTC

chasd00 wrote: post #335

mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

Posts like this from the HN community are almost surreal. Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue. This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking, no country has agreed to anything on it. How is this missed on the community here?

Nobody knows what "the actual deal" is because we have pathological liars on both sides (well, especially pathological on one side, most just utilitarian on the other)

Iran's version of events includes the Iranian military controlling the Strait and incurring fees.

AP is reporting Iran's version as the true one.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#375

Post by themafia » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:17 AM UTC

tdeck wrote: post #86

idle_zealot wrote: post #80

We already attacked Iran twice during "talks," is there any indication that we mean it this time, or are we just going to bomb them again while negotiations are ongoing?

This will be the one ceasefire that Israel respects?

They underestimated Iran's unique mix of capabilities and strategy. It's not that Iran is undefeatable but it seems that the price is going to be far too high both globally and especially regionally for the tiny coalition of Israel and the US to succeed in the long term.

I think it says something that the US paid such a high price to try to produce a "viral military campaign" video of a Uranium heist. Straight out of the cold war. The palatable options must be steadily dwindling.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#376

Post by smcnc » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:17 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #360

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Perhaps stop taking the administration's claims at face value. Their army has not been destroyed. They continue to launch missiles daily and have been extraordinarily successful in targeting US/Israel radar and defensive assets throughout the region. They have suffered air force and naval losses, but if you look back at analysis from before the war started, exactly nobody considered the Iranian air force or navy to b…

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#377

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:18 AM UTC

computerex wrote: post #285

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Wars are about objectives. The USA managed to accomplish none of its objectives. Iran forced USA to concede and call for ceasefire before US could achieve objectives. That’s the definition of defeat. Iran won by not losing and holding out. Iran has more leverage at the end of this war than it did at the start. Iran has proven that it has the capability to catastrophically disrupt global economy.

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#378

Post by Cyph0n » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:18 AM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #342

smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

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> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal

And Iran has been respecting that principle for decades. So why exactly did the US and Israel (and GCC countries) think that the status quo would remain even if they keep antagonizing Iran? Imagine getting bombed during negotiations - not once, but twice in a single year! Their sovereignty was being disrespected, so now they're understandably establishing a new status quo.

And btw, if Iran and Oman cooperate, there is no threat to "freedom of navigation" under international law.

In a nutshell: play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#379

Post by dmoy » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:18 AM UTC

shash wrote: post #331

computerex wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wars are about objectives. The USA managed to accomplish none of its objectives. Iran forced USA to concede and call for ceasefire before US could achieve objectives. That’s the definition of defeat. Iran won by not losing and holding out. Iran has more leverage at the end of this war than it did at the start. Iran has proven that it has the capability to catastrophically disrupt global economy.

That analysis requires discovering what the US’s objectives were. Not sure we can…

Well if the objective was just about distracting from some domestic issue, then maybe it doesn't matter from Trump's perspective.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#380

Post by AuthAuth » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:20 AM UTC

chasd00 wrote: post #335

mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

Posts like this from the HN community are almost surreal. Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue. This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking, no country has agreed to anything on it. How is this missed on the community here?

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