US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#271

Post by mikehotel » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:42 AM UTC

ajross wrote: post #95

cjbgkagh wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this 10 point plan drops the need for US to pay reparations instead relying on transit fees which will be split with Oman. Missiles are still flying so it’s hard to say who has really agreed to what. I’ve heard rumors that Iran has agreed to dilute its highly enriched uranium so maybe the US could count that as a win. Given they’ve demonstrated sufficient conventional deterrence they may feel that they don’t…

FWIW, money is the easiest term to agree to. We have lots and lots. I agree, it will never be called "reparations", but you can trivially structure it in a zillion ways that just look like foreign aid or debt forgiveness or whatever. The WHO forgives some loans or the UN agrees to build some infrastructure, and we coincidentally make a new fund of about the same size, etc...

What if Iran refuses payment in USD? For reparations, tolls, or for future sale of oil?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#272

Post by danans » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:42 AM UTC

dataflow wrote: post #223

How does anyone just open a strait that has mines in it in 2 weeks?

> How does anyone just open a strait that has mines in it in 2 weeks?

The strait has been open for weeks for friendly countries' ships that pay Iran $2M per passage through their "toll booth", an unmined route through Iranian territorial waters.

This ceasefire appears legitimize that situation. If it holds, Iran is about to make huge amounts of money on top of sanctions relief.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#273

Post by alfiedotwtf » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:43 AM UTC

Weird how Iran is able to come to a ceasefire when their whole leadership has been killed times over. Who exactly does Trump think he’s negotiating with?!

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#274

Post by HKH2 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:43 AM UTC

danny_codes wrote: post #200

cheriot wrote: post #102

Let's not forget the road to war started in 2016 when Trump walked into the White House at withdrew from the JCPOA. He's wanted the war for years, got it, and lost it.

Hey now, the JCPOA was designed to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, and was working effectively at doing that. That’s completely different from what Trump is demanding now, which is to prevent Iran from getting nuclear.. Wait I think Trump dementia’d again

Israel would still get the US to attack Iran regardless.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#275

Post by smcnc » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:44 AM UTC

none2585 wrote: post #263

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

[flagged]

Insightful

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#276

Post by NomDePlum » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:44 AM UTC

mgfist wrote: post #202

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

[dead]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#277

Post by kelipso » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:44 AM UTC

Aloisius wrote: post #260

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

Interesting. I have noticed that news about events in Iran has been markedly different within the US and outside the US for years.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#278

Post by kumarvvr » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:45 AM UTC

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Contrast it with the JCPOA by Obama

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/joint-comprehensive-p...

Key Aspects of the JCPOA: Enrichment Limits: Iran capped uranium enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years.

Centrifuge Restrictions: Reduced operating centrifuges to 5,060 IR-1 machines for 10 years.

Stockpile Restrictions: Limited enriched uranium stockpile to 300 kg for 15 years.

Facility Redesign: Redesigned the Arak heavy water reactor to prevent plutonium production and converted Fordow into a research center.

Monitoring: The IAEA receives enhanced access and monitoring capabilities.

Sanctions Relief: UN, EU, and US nuclear-related sanctions were lifted, restoring Iranian oil sales and banking access.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#279

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:45 AM UTC

[deleted]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#280

Post by GorbachevyChase » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:46 AM UTC

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

I’m not sure the terms of negotiation are even worth discussion. Every time this administration has negotiated with anyone on matters pertaining to Israeli interests, it’s only been a ruse to position for another attack.

My guess is that they know good and well all the marine landing craft are going to get smoked and are using a false peace to preposition the ground invasion. The ridiculous James Bond scheme they tried to pull off which resulted in us destroying a dozen of our own aircraft and, quite probably a few of our own operators was a Hail Mary inspired by too much television. That failure leaves the administration with quite the dilemma. Surrender and call it a victory, which Israel will not allow. Or repeat the Syracuse Expedition as farse.

It’s a bit depressing to think about, but my hope is that these catastrophic failures will get false allies out of the decision loop and we proceed as a more peaceful and wiser country.