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OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

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21–30 of 161 posts

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#21
post #6

Odd timing...Everything I've read about Claude the last several days suggests that its users are disappointed, even furious at what's happened to its performance.

Now that they’ve relegated OpenClaw to pay-as-you-go API usage, I hope the compute overload issues they’ve been facing will ease up some.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#23

> The large gap between OpenAI’s $852-billion valuation and Anthropic’s $380 billion has investors rushing to grab equity in the latter before it rises, according to Augment co-founder Adam Crawley. Interesting, so there are a lot of people still eager to invest in valuations of well greater than a-quarter-trillion, but OpenAI's latest raise has sucked up all the oxygen for enthusiasm of that valuation going even hig…

I am playing around with this at home right now. I think a lot of the latest improvements came with the harness, instead of AI.

The part I am working on is to have better tools and data to search over. Curated for my needs. Similar to the Karpathy post yesterday about his wiki. I am trying something similar and even qwen 3.5 is totally fine for most of what I do.

Disclaimer: I bought memory before the crisis started. Not sure if I would build my PC as is now..

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#24
post #13
post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

It's clearly because they didn't hire me after I applied :) In all seriousness, I use Codex for work and Claude at home, and I feel like nowadays they're actually pretty competitive with each other. I don't know that it's that far behind. I agree that they clearly erroneously assumed that no one would be able to catch up with them, though. OpenAI had such a head start that that should have been by itself a moat.

Does it matter that codex is now as good as claude code?

Check dev spaces like twitter and discord and all anyone talks about is claude-code, openclaw, opus 4.6 etc.

The mindshare went to anthropic.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#25
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coding assistants won't win this game. They sure will win the hearts of developers, but to scale you need mass adoption and products for which users want to pay substantially. OpenAI is falling behind in the small features in their chat and app offering and have failed to innovate in their expensive offerings. Codex btw is getting very competitive. It is fast and no longer far behind.

The strategic playbook of the web era said: Get a huge userbase of normies, then figure out how to monetise them (usually via advertising). OpenAI stumbled into the userbase via ChatGPT, but it's unclear if the strategy or the economics apply to AI. Anthropic tried to compete in the consumer market, but couldn't, so focussed on coding and enterprise, and it looks like that's actually turning into a smart choice, at l…

But will they pay the unsubsidized cost when anthropic needs to turn a profit?

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#26
Both of these valuations are absolutely absurd. I guess Anthropic looks good in comparison, but I don't want to hold that bag.

The Chinese models are catching up in quality while being a fraction of the price. The market will speak, how many devices that contributed to this thread were made in the USA?

Sure you can argue the Chinese companies are heavily subsidized, but no major LLM lab is remotely close to making a profit this decade.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#27
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coding assistants won't win this game. They sure will win the hearts of developers, but to scale you need mass adoption and products for which users want to pay substantially. OpenAI is falling behind in the small features in their chat and app offering and have failed to innovate in their expensive offerings. Codex btw is getting very competitive. It is fast and no longer far behind.

The strategic playbook of the web era said: Get a huge userbase of normies, then figure out how to monetise them (usually via advertising). OpenAI stumbled into the userbase via ChatGPT, but it's unclear if the strategy or the economics apply to AI. Anthropic tried to compete in the consumer market, but couldn't, so focussed on coding and enterprise, and it looks like that's actually turning into a smart choice, at l…

There are three possible paths that sort of substantiate current valuations:

1) Business: LLMs become essential to every company, and you become rich by selling the best enterprise tools to everyone.

2) Consumer: LLMs cannibalize search and a good chunk of the internet, so people end up interacting with your AI assistant instead of opening any websites. You start serving ads and take Google's lunch.

3) Superhuman AGI: you beat everyone else to the punch to build a life form superior to humans, this doesn't end up in a disaster, and you then steal underpants, ???, profit.

Anthropic is clearly betting on #1. Google decided to beat everyone else to #2, and they can probably do it better and more cheaply than others because of their existing infra and the way they're plugged into people's digital lives. And OpenAI... I guess banked on #3 and this is perhaps looking less certain now?

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The strategic playbook of the web era said: Get a huge userbase of normies, then figure out how to monetise them (usually via advertising). OpenAI stumbled into the userbase via ChatGPT, but it's unclear if the strategy or the economics apply to AI. Anthropic tried to compete in the consumer market, but couldn't, so focussed on coding and enterprise, and it looks like that's actually turning into a smart choice, at l…

But will they pay the unsubsidized cost when anthropic needs to turn a profit?

And they actually can’t increase the price much.

Token generation is the metric Jensen Huang keeps pushing to temper analysts, which also affect nvidia’s future expected cash flows of course.

If increasing the price causes that metric to drop, the whole narrative falls apart and fear will spread in the stock market.

They’re all racing very close to the edge. Some closer than others.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#29
post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Anecdotally, I would actually argue tbe opposite - Anthropic is overrated, ass-kissed way too much here for mediocre coding abilities (especially for Elixir). ChatGPT most of the time one-shots complex solutions in comparison. The only reason why people shit on OpenAI so much is because of the defence deal, but, it's not like Anthropic is a saint either:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/anthropic-gives-20-million-t...

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#30
post #19
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coding assistants won't win this game. They sure will win the hearts of developers, but to scale you need mass adoption and products for which users want to pay substantially. OpenAI is falling behind in the small features in their chat and app offering and have failed to innovate in their expensive offerings. Codex btw is getting very competitive. It is fast and no longer far behind.

Agents increase the velocity of OpenAI and Anthropic; whomever has the best in-house agent moves the quickest.

Any publicly available evidence to back that up? There have been post-exit blog posts from OpenAI employees on HN before and it did sound like the only black magic they use there is that many employees work 16 hrs a day during launch of new features. I know that some current Claude Code devs are doing interviews where they claim that they use Claude Code extensively but they clearly have a conflict of interest while they are still employed at Anthropic, so it would be like asking a barber if you need a haircut.
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