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OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

latimes.com

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Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#11

Post by igtt »

oezi wrote: post #9
brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Coding assistants won't win this game. They sure will win the hearts of developers, but to scale you need mass adoption and products for which users want to pay substantially. OpenAI is falling behind in the small features in their chat and app offering and have failed to innovate in their expensive offerings. Codex btw is getting very competitive. It is fast and no longer far behind.

The reality is given how much OAI has raised, they have to get to a place where they are doing insane revenues…

We’re talking on the level of meta, google and probably more if they keep raising money.

They really went all in with hubris and they’re gonna get punished eventually.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#12

Post by hgoel »

I wonder how much of this is associated with Scam Altman's personal negative PR and Anthropic's recent PR wins.

I'm inclined to think there isn't much of an association becauss investors don't seem very concerned with morality, but I know ~dozen developers that either switched to, or started using Claude in the past month or so, while not knowing anyone that uses Codex.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#13

Post by tombert »

brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

It's clearly because they didn't hire me after I applied :)

In all seriousness, I use Codex for work and Claude at home, and I feel like nowadays they're actually pretty competitive with each other. I don't know that it's that far behind.

I agree that they clearly erroneously assumed that no one would be able to catch up with them, though. OpenAI had such a head start that that should have been by itself a moat.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#14

Post by tombert »

morcutt wrote: post #7
brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Sam lost the plot for me. He took too many interviews which led me to not trust him. Last straw came with him standing by Anthropic one day then throwing them under the bus the next. He showed little awareness on why that is problematic.

That's why I changed as well. I got really irritated how Altman tried to get the social credit by having principles, only to change them the moment it was convenient.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#15

Post by igtt »

hgoel wrote: post #12

I wonder how much of this is associated with Scam Altman's personal negative PR and Anthropic's recent PR wins. I'm inclined to think there isn't much of an association becauss investors don't seem very concerned with morality, but I know ~dozen developers that either switched to, or started using Claude in the past month or so, while not knowing anyone that uses Codex.

The issue is investors want discipline.

They want to see the CEO communicate a path to profitability. Anthropic has - purely by focusing.

OAI in contrast is all over the place and they haven’t shown they’ve learned.

Zuckerberg got punished for his metaverse nonsense and investors were correct to be skeptical and reflect that in the stock price. Altman thinks he’s a god and the rules don’t apply to him. More fool him.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#17

Post by nayroclade »

oezi wrote: post #9
brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Coding assistants won't win this game. They sure will win the hearts of developers, but to scale you need mass adoption and products for which users want to pay substantially. OpenAI is falling behind in the small features in their chat and app offering and have failed to innovate in their expensive offerings. Codex btw is getting very competitive. It is fast and no longer far behind.

The strategic playbook of the web era said: Get a huge userbase of normies, then figure out how to monetise them (usually via advertising). OpenAI stumbled into the userbase via ChatGPT, but it's unclear if the strategy or the economics apply to AI. Anthropic tried to compete in the consumer market, but couldn't, so focussed on coding and enterprise, and it looks like that's actually turning into a smart choice, at least right now, because it turns out people will pay subscription costs for agents that do their job for them.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#18

Post by noosphr »

hmartin wrote: post #10
brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

What kind of OI slop is this? 5.4 Extra high >> Opus 4.6

Depends on your work flow.

I find that for human in the loop Gemini beats both.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#19

Post by 7e »

oezi wrote: post #9
brookst wrote: post #3

I don’t know how OpenAI screwed this up. They had the best tech, the largest installed base, the best brand recognition. And somehow instead of prosecuting the lead in all areas, they got all hubristic and sloppy and just failed to iterate on the core product, while also failing to respond quickly when Anthropic showed that coding agents are the flywheel that makes the whole company faster. It’s like they thought the…

Coding assistants won't win this game. They sure will win the hearts of developers, but to scale you need mass adoption and products for which users want to pay substantially. OpenAI is falling behind in the small features in their chat and app offering and have failed to innovate in their expensive offerings. Codex btw is getting very competitive. It is fast and no longer far behind.

Agents increase the velocity of OpenAI and Anthropic; whomever has the best in-house agent moves the quickest.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#20

Post by nothinkjustai »

majormajor wrote: post #4

> The large gap between OpenAI’s $852-billion valuation and Anthropic’s $380 billion has investors rushing to grab equity in the latter before it rises, according to Augment co-founder Adam Crawley. Interesting, so there are a lot of people still eager to invest in valuations of well greater than a-quarter-trillion, but OpenAI's latest raise has sucked up all the oxygen for enthusiasm of that valuation going even hig…

Vibe coding requires the sota models to work at all, but someone who knows what they are doing and uses the AI more responsibly can absolutely use the cheaper Chinese models for coding, and they’re often faster too. If I was one of the big players my entire focus would be on lobbying for regulation and outright banning of local models.
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