Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

forbes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 208 posts

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#51

Post by steveBK123 »

adventured wrote: post #33
steveBK123 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just take a look at the enterprise. Amazon's ad business alone is already a better business than Oracle or SAP or Salesforce, with superior margins, and it's growing faster too. You can say the same about AWS and then prove the b2b case instead of ad case as well

AWS is legitimately a giant and it should be considered in enterprise broadly. It's infrastructure more than enterprise software of course, which is where Anthropic is at. Anthropic is not trying to host the world's databases and services (at present anyway). Anthropic will however help you write software to compete with Salesforce, Oracle, SAP, et al. Google's ad business remains far larger and more profitable than…

I guess the question is how many more $100B of ad sales slots are available, aside from just stealing share from incumbents (who already took it from traditional media channels over last 20 years).

At some point someone needs to add value to the real economy, not just take an ad tax off the top.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#53

Post by adventured »

iAMkenough wrote: post #37
bdangubic wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These exact words were said tens of thousands of times about Facebook (am old enough to remember those discussions :) ), “no way they can monetize on mobile” (this was the most fun). rules are simple, if you have Xbn or XXXm users on your system, you will make big bank in ads eventually

At that time, Facebook provided a free service without any real competitors. The masses will switch to Meta AI or Gemini or Claude at the drop of an ad that annoys them enough.

Gemini, GPT and Claude will all have ads on the consumer side. They will go together in quasi lock-step into the ad future, because that money is gigantic and they're going to need it.

The masses will have no say in the matter. Just as they had no say in the matter with Google's ads getting ever more intrusive, or cable prices previously, or streaming prices going perpetually higher in the present, or YouTube ads, or anything else. Consumers will have no say in the matter, they'll take it and that's that.

With only three relevant competitors (maybe Mistral in Europe), there will be nowhere to flee the deployment of ads.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#54

Post by shimman »

jexe wrote: post #52

I'm not an OAI fanboy by a longshot - but I'd view lots of experiments that didn't work out as a healthy thing, especially for a company trying to find footing in a new industry.

It's not an experiment if you publicly showcase and create tens of millions worth of marketing materials on it.

Usually company "experiments" are typically hush hush, not blasted on every corporate media channel as a means to boost your company holdings.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#55

Post by sylos »

cmiles8 wrote: post #44
adventured wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLM usage will largely replace traditional search, and that's stage one. To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. Search will more be a feature of Gemin…

Google is already dumping LLMs into search and it works well and is free.

It doesn't work well. The searches are wrong and uninformative much of the time.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#56

Post by satvikpendem »

operatingthetan wrote: post #31
adventured wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLM usage will largely replace traditional search, and that's stage one. To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. Search will more be a feature of Gemin…

> To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. We already have the tech for that, why hasn't it happened? People are revolted by the AI results in Google. A…

Who is revolted? I use the AI Google results every day when asking for specific questions, I rarely visit the webpages before anymore. Also Google already injects ads into conversations in the form of Google Shopping affiliate links.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#57

Post by satvikpendem »

sylos wrote: post #55
cmiles8 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google is already dumping LLMs into search and it works well and is free.

It doesn't work well. The searches are wrong and uninformative much of the time.

Any examples of bad ones? I find them perfectly fine for my queries.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#58

Post by neaden »

Mistletoe wrote: post #8

Has there ever been a period o time where people saw a bubble coming and that we were in one, but it just inexorably refused to pop/drug out this long? This isn’t a rhetorical question, I’m wondering how this period compares to other irrational periods of the economy like railroad fever etc.

Not at all, there is a famous saying (often attributed to Keynes but as far as I can tell he never said) “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#59

Post by ceejayoz »

Mistletoe wrote: post #8

Has there ever been a period o time where people saw a bubble coming and that we were in one, but it just inexorably refused to pop/drug out this long? This isn’t a rhetorical question, I’m wondering how this period compares to other irrational periods of the economy like railroad fever etc.

NFTs lasted a lot longer than they should have.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#60

Post by satvikpendem »

adventured wrote: post #26
operatingthetan wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). This seems like ... not the situation we are in. LLMs are great for coding now but their text generation capabilities aren't exactly capturing the masses or replacing their jobs yet. People are already tired of the deluge of fake content on the inter…

LLM usage will largely replace traditional search, and that's stage one. To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. Search will more be a feature of Gemin…

You see it already with how many people use LLMs for everything these days. Google Gemini can also integrate with your other Google apps to personalize further, and Gemini already has product placement ads.
Post reply on HN