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The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

forbes.com

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Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#31

Post by operatingthetan »

adventured wrote: post #26
operatingthetan wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). This seems like ... not the situation we are in. LLMs are great for coding now but their text generation capabilities aren't exactly capturing the masses or replacing their jobs yet. People are already tired of the deluge of fake content on the inter…

LLM usage will largely replace traditional search, and that's stage one. To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. Search will more be a feature of Gemin…

> To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end.

We already have the tech for that, why hasn't it happened? People are revolted by the AI results in Google. AI isn't going to make people use their computers more. It's not opening up a new consumer market. This is just making each search infinitely more expensive.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#33

Post by adventured »

steveBK123 wrote: post #22
adventured wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). If GPT is a leader in that, they'll take a sizable share of that pot. There's a lot more money in being Google -> consumer ads, or Amazon -> consumer ads, or Meta -> consumer ads, than there is in being Anthropic -> enterprise. Just take a look at the…

> Just take a look at the enterprise. Amazon's ad business alone is already a better business than Oracle or SAP or Salesforce, with superior margins, and it's growing faster too. You can say the same about AWS and then prove the b2b case instead of ad case as well

AWS is legitimately a giant and it should be considered in enterprise broadly. It's infrastructure more than enterprise software of course, which is where Anthropic is at. Anthropic is not trying to host the world's databases and services (at present anyway). Anthropic will however help you write software to compete with Salesforce, Oracle, SAP, et al.

Google's ad business remains far larger and more profitable than AWS. And the advertising segment is drastically larger than the segment AWS is in. Just Google + Meta = nearing $600 billion in ad sales. Amazon will soon have their own $100 billion in ad sales.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#34

Post by bdangubic »

iAMkenough wrote: post #19
adventured wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). If GPT is a leader in that, they'll take a sizable share of that pot. There's a lot more money in being Google -> consumer ads, or Amazon -> consumer ads, or Meta -> consumer ads, than there is in being Anthropic -> enterprise. Just take a look at the…

Not interested in a service with ads throughout my workday, which is why I switched to Anthropic. Billions in projected revenue is nothing but hype/cope. Google and Meta got their edge because their product was offered for "free" to the masses.

absolutely not the case. there isn’t a single nerve in human brains that goes “oh imma tolerate ads cause this shit’s free but if I pay a few bucks no way” - if the product you use has utility to you, you will tolerate ads provided no other acceptable alternative. not to tell you something you don’t already know but anthropic is getting ads, eventually, it is a given. so while today you may have an alternative (arguably better even if no ads in the equation) at some point you won’t have an alternative (other than running local) and you’ll tolerate ads. the thing with LLM ads is that companies can make $$$$ from “ads” you don’t see, i.e. I can (not now but in the future) companies to push my product, e.g. claude is setting up architecture and proposes upstash (which I own and am paying anthropic a lot of money) instead of any competitor. or even more silently adding dependencies on my NPM library which has free and commercial offering…

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#35

Post by adventured »

cmiles8 wrote: post #13
adventured wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). If GPT is a leader in that, they'll take a sizable share of that pot. There's a lot more money in being Google -> consumer ads, or Amazon -> consumer ads, or Meta -> consumer ads, than there is in being Anthropic -> enterprise. Just take a look at the…

“The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue” And yet every attempt to extract even minimal ad revenue has been canned to date as something nobody wants with AI providers retreating in failure. I don’t doubt that there’s “some” ad revenue to be had but there’s little evidence that ads are going to save the day here.

For several early years search was thought to have no great business model (banner ads and similar). And then it did.

GoTo.com -> Google -> $$$

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#36

Post by adrian_b »

MisterTea wrote: post #24

Who is the person in the portrait at the top of the page?

The CEO himself.

For some reason, he does not look like a man whom I would trust with my money, but it appears that there are enough rich investors who disagree.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#37

Post by iAMkenough »

bdangubic wrote: post #25
cmiles8 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue” And yet every attempt to extract even minimal ad revenue has been canned to date as something nobody wants with AI providers retreating in failure. I don’t doubt that there’s “some” ad revenue to be had but there’s little evidence that ads are going to save the day here.

These exact words were said tens of thousands of times about Facebook (am old enough to remember those discussions :) ), “no way they can monetize on mobile” (this was the most fun). rules are simple, if you have Xbn or XXXm users on your system, you will make big bank in ads eventually

At that time, Facebook provided a free service without any real competitors. The masses will switch to Meta AI or Gemini or Claude at the drop of an ad that annoys them enough.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#38

Post by harmonic18374 »

bdangubic wrote: post #25
cmiles8 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue” And yet every attempt to extract even minimal ad revenue has been canned to date as something nobody wants with AI providers retreating in failure. I don’t doubt that there’s “some” ad revenue to be had but there’s little evidence that ads are going to save the day here.

These exact words were said tens of thousands of times about Facebook (am old enough to remember those discussions :) ), “no way they can monetize on mobile” (this was the most fun). rules are simple, if you have Xbn or XXXm users on your system, you will make big bank in ads eventually

It's tempting to look at trends and assume there must be a rule behind them, but it's also intellectually lazy. Please do the hard work of justifying your stance like GGP did.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#39

Post by paxys »

dgellow wrote: post #3
cmiles8 wrote: post #2

This is important context in the wake of yesterday’s “raise” announcement. A lot of this stuff seems to just quietly never happen once the ink on the PR puff dries. The AI industry increasingly looks in scramble mode to keep the hype going as those storm clouds of financial and business reality get darker and darker on the horizon.

Anthropic does look healthier, with their enterprise focus. Or am I missing something?

If/when the bubble bursts Anthropic is going down as well. There's nothing unique that sets it apart from OpenAI. Their cash burn is similarly egregious.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#40

Post by cmiles8 »

steveBK123 wrote: post #28
operatingthetan wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). This seems like ... not the situation we are in. LLMs are great for coding now but their text generation capabilities aren't exactly capturing the masses or replacing their jobs yet. People are already tired of the deluge of fake content on the inter…

> The $20-200 LLM plans are all subsidized and aren't paying for themselves. Something has to give here. Whats interesting to me as well as much as companies are pushing AI adoption, i have started to hear AI token spend limits enforced across a few companies, so its not entirely clear that b2b can make them profitable yet either. If all the models reach good enough, then low cost provider would win. Gemini seems lik…

In large part because most companies have a set budget for IT spend. Thats how “normal” profitable companies operate outside this cash burning bonanza that’s going on.

And in that reality one can’t just magically spend a bunch more on some fancy new thing, especially when said fancy new thing isn’t retuning value. So “token limits” and cost controls on B2B is entirely expected here.

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