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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#841

Post by the_gipsy »

b112 wrote: post #572
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. There is value in much of what you're saying in your post, even though I don't necessarily agree 100% with all of it. However, no one involved in planning or starting this attack, underestimated the size of Iran at all. All of that would have been covered by all briefings. The US admin and military knew all of this, and frankly has planned all of this.…

> Don't sell oil to China.

And what happens if Iran doesn't fold like Venezuela? Then the gates are open to trade in whatever is not dollars. Which means that the US economy will die.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#842

Post by mycall »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

Sorry but if Cuba starting launching drones at Florida, especially Mar-a-Lago, Cuba will be carpet bombed. Americans would simply not put up with that. It would be sad days in history imho.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#843

Post by beepbooptheory »

bluGill wrote: post #779
ekianjo wrote: post #761

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember, they killed 30K of their own to quell an uprising.[2] There is absolutely no way to know if it's true or not

There are ample indepentant sources for that estimate. We don't know an exact number but we know it is close to that.

To be charitable, it is prima facie weird that that this seems to be the one thing we do know for sure. Literally every other detail here seems to be trapped in a black box or uncertainty, except for this. First the US blew up all the nuclear last year, then it turns they were days away. They were out of missiles a week ago, and then they werent at all. We were so sure about "the appetite for rebellion" among the people, until we weren't.

I guess you just have to reflect on how nice it is that the one thing we know for sure aligns with an ongoing justification for all the bad stuff that needs to happen! It's funny how it works like that, but we have to take their word for it.

I remember seeing those maps pointing to the WMDs in Iraq on NYT. I remember when it was unspeakable to be critical of the narrative. All you can do, I guess, is hope that they wouldn't do that again, believe that this time its different.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#844

Post by mycall »

senordevnyc wrote: post #748
matheusmoreira wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how nukes work. When it comes to nuclear weapons, the world is divided into haves and have-nots. Anyone lacking effective nuclear response can be steamrolled by those who do with total impunity. The USA has been attacked before but it has never been invaded and forced to fight a war on its own soil against foreign enemies. It's possible that they unconsciously believe war is something they bring to others, nev…

Anyone lacking effective nuclear response can be steamrolled by those who do with total impunity. Ukraine begs to differ.

Ukraine is different and did the reverse, giving up their nukes. They said it was too expensive to keep them, which is only partially true. Ukraine could have deconstructed them and created new Permissive Action Links (PALs) in Dnipro although this process would have taken years and carried a high risk of accidental detonation or radioactive mishaps during the reengineering phase.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#845

Post by lejalv »

Urahandystar wrote: post #818
coffeebeqn wrote: post #775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If anything, this war demonstrates the tyranny and tentacles of the modern state. The well seems forever poisoned once power is lost to despots. Didn’t we just see in Syria that’s not the case. It is supremely hard to nation build a large failing state no matter who’s attempting it. Having the guns to challenge the internal security forces seems like a necessary first step.

Did you not see how long it took in Syria? Did you miss ISIS? the massive number of groups splintered off? Sure people hated Assad but what it took to get rid of him was horrid. If any thing the Iranians are probably scared that this is what will become of them I know I would be.

This is perhaps the endgame for Israel: a fractured, warlording Iran that will never become a cohesive threat again.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#846

Post by mdni007 »

torlok wrote: post #800
zmmmmm wrote: post #454

Given it is reported to be successfully targeting Israel with cluster ammunitions in warheads, I am curious what stops Iran from targeting US ships even far outside the strait? I would have thought if you could send multiple missiles with cluster bombs simultaneously at short notice it would be very difficult to counter and impose catastrophic cost. Is anti-missile defense is just that good on ships that no amount of…

It's a waste. Iran can't win against the US army. They'll win by being as disruptive as possible, for as long as possible. They'll keep seldomly launching rockets until they get what they want or the global economy collapses. This whole situation perfectly illustrates that wars are won with intelligence, and not by gung ho "warrior ethos" morons like Hegseth.

Are you saying Iran, a country that was just sanctioned to hell for almost half a century, with a defense budget of at most $30B is outsmarting our $2T/year military which we consider to be the greatest in the world? The can't be. That's literally the only thing that makes this nation "great". That would imply that our country is being led by morons

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#847

Post by readitalready »

bluGill wrote: post #779
ekianjo wrote: post #761

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember, they killed 30K of their own to quell an uprising.[2] There is absolutely no way to know if it's true or not

There are ample indepentant sources for that estimate. We don't know an exact number but we know it is close to that.

No, there aren't independent sources for that estimate, and we do not even know if it is close to that.

That number was simply made up and comes from Iran International, a Mossad-funded Pahlavist site.

Additionally, the Iranian government states that 2-3,000 were killed, mostly from Mossad-armed insurrectionists killing Iranian police.

So who are you going to believe? Israel, or Iran?

The vast majority of people trust the Iranian government over the Israeli regime.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#848

Post by bildung »

PunchyHamster wrote: post #255
tim333 wrote: post #225

>The era of carrier-dominated airpower is fading, as cheap, unmanned anti-ship weapons reshape naval warfare, whether US planners are ready for it or not. is not really backed up by reality. Pretty much the whole US operation so far, destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are. Also straits being closed to shipping by whatever power co…

> is not really backed up by reality. Pretty much the whole US operation so far, destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are. The country with 0.3% of global spending in military is putting a noticeable dent in assets of country that has 35% of global spending in military and are begging allies for help coz they can't even stop the dro…

To add to that, the current take that the US could just walk away from the conflict is incredibly naive - Iran will decide when this is over, and it won't be before the November elections. Before the US attacked, blocking the strait was only a potential, now Trump gave Iran the chance to prove that they are capable of doing it. And why on earth would Iran now give that away for free?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#849

Post by zimpenfish »

malfist wrote: post #824
tda wrote: post #765

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the comparisons were referring to land area, but I agree this is not that clear from from the comment

> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq Sure, they're talking multiples of land area.

> Sure, they're talking multiples of land area.

But then don't say "people"? Because if you say "has N people" and then "more than 2x Y", no-one is going to go "yes, that's 2x land area" when it was NEVER MENTIONED IN ANY CONTEXT.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#850

Post by DiscourseFan »

lejalv wrote: post #845
Urahandystar wrote: post #818

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you not see how long it took in Syria? Did you miss ISIS? the massive number of groups splintered off? Sure people hated Assad but what it took to get rid of him was horrid. If any thing the Iranians are probably scared that this is what will become of them I know I would be.

This is perhaps the endgame for Israel: a fractured, warlording Iran that will never become a cohesive threat again.

They did it in Libya
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