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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#811

Post by dfedbeef »

jacquesm wrote: post #657
watwut wrote: post #540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USA is good at bombing places. It just so happen that it usually looses the wars after that and usually creates a lot more probpems for itself in the long run. Taliban is back in power, having stronger grap on power then before. Meanwhile, everybody knows what happens to those who cooperate with USA - they get abandoned and betrayed.

All this does in the long run is set the stage for another 9/11.

Literally. The US is run by people who can't see past their fucking noses.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#812

Post by Guillaume86 »

Jackpillar wrote: post #620
b112 wrote: post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. There is value in much of what you're saying in your post, even though I don't necessarily agree 100% with all of it. However, no one involved in planning or starting this attack, underestimated the size of Iran at all. All of that would have been covered by all briefings. The US admin and military knew all of this, and frankly has planned all of this.…

This reads as a Tom Clancy wet dream of American Machiavellian geopolitical maneuvering and not (what it is) yet another historic military intervention blunder - the likes of which we've seen multiple times in just our lifetimes alone (Vietnam/Iraq) - lead by some of the dumbest people to ever grace the highest positions of our military apparatus. Not only is China still receiving oil from Iran but Russias oil revenu…

Yeah this should be a citation in the sanewashing wikipedia article.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#813

Post by johnbarron »

bluGill wrote: post #779
ekianjo wrote: post #761

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember, they killed 30K of their own to quell an uprising.[2] There is absolutely no way to know if it's true or not

There are ample indepentant sources for that estimate. We don't know an exact number but we know it is close to that.

[flagged]

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#814

Post by seewhat »

kitd wrote: post #273
wvbdmp wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s difficult to imagine something more psychologically damaging than WWI trenches. Where can we read more about this?

Written by protagonists: "The Complete Memoirs of George Sherston" by Siegfried Sassoon. (Ignore the title, it's actually his autobiography, and you could probably skip the first book in the trilogy). "Goodbye to all that" by Robert Graves. Two of the best writers in the English language recounting their times in the trenches.

“Storm of Steel” by Ernst Jünger, for one view from the German side. It has been variously perceived as pro- and anti-war.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#815

Post by dlisboa »

jvanderbot wrote: post #809
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

This is a fairly well trod argument. It also requires a fairly long series of strawman arguments to come together. Yes, there are challenges, but ... The reality of Hormuz was well known decades ago - even in 2002 Millenium exercise a bunch of speedboats and motorcycles stopped the US Navy from opening hormuz. [1] Moskva was taken down by a well coordinated strike that distracted its one (1!) fire control radar. It w…

> A blanket comparison of Russia's attempts to eliminate Ukraine's industry with US Navy's ability to eliminate Iran's is ... questionable. We've flown 1000s of uncontested sorties over Ukraine, and Russia has been relegated to knocking down apartment buildings with Iran's own drones.

Russia has literally taken over the industrial heart of Ukraine in the east and southeast regions. With boots on the ground, tanks, everything. They claim it as their land. And yet they can't stop Ukraine from building drones.

That's far more than the US/Israel have done or are willing to do. It's extremely realistic that they do not have the capacity to destroy Iran's drone making capabilities, ever.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#816

Post by mothballed »

curiousElf wrote: post #474

Must be nice for western arm chair commentators to discuss this without once feeling the consequences of the actions of their elected government. Where I live - we face a severe shortage of LPG fuel due to this. Quite a few restaurants have shut down temporarily. Migrant workers around the parts who have no access to a kitchen because they live in tiny quarters with a bedding and a common toilet are struggling to fin…

I used an MSR international stove when I was homeless. 1L of some sort of fuel (it takes gasoline, white gas, kerosene, etc) would last me at least a week and at least one form of fuel it accepts can usually be obtained somehow from somewhere. If you can come up with 1 gal gas / person / month it will cook rice or boil some meat easy enough. Of course if there is not even enough gas for 1 ga / person / month I think you are in deeper shit because there's not enough to even transport basic needed supplies and you are probably using mules like in Cuba (in which case, hopefully you can chop down a tree for wood).

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#818

Post by Urahandystar »

coffeebeqn wrote: post #775
fny wrote: post #747

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big mistake was underestimating the appetite for rebellion despite 70%-80% wholesale opposition to the regime.[0] I personally know many, many Iranians who welcome the attacks along with their families. All of the high-profile assassinations involve intelligence from Iranians. However, no one has guns, and government-backed militias roam the streets to maintain order.[1] There is no possibility of military coup.…

> If anything, this war demonstrates the tyranny and tentacles of the modern state. The well seems forever poisoned once power is lost to despots. Didn’t we just see in Syria that’s not the case. It is supremely hard to nation build a large failing state no matter who’s attempting it. Having the guns to challenge the internal security forces seems like a necessary first step.

Did you not see how long it took in Syria? Did you miss ISIS? the massive number of groups splintered off? Sure people hated Assad but what it took to get rid of him was horrid. If any thing the Iranians are probably scared that this is what will become of them I know I would be.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#819

Post by traceroute66 »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years.

I think you're missing the point.

I am sure Israel did not underestimate the scale of Iran.

That is why Netanyahu dedicated 40 years of his life to the famous "40 years 2-weeks away from a bomb" one-man stand-up comedy show when visiting the US or the UN.

For 40 years Netanyahu waited for a stupid enough President to take a seat in the Oval Office.

For 40 years, consecutive US presidents asked their advisors before going back to Netanyahu with a polite but firm "Thanks, but no thanks".

Then along came the Donny.

Advisors ? What advisors ?

Cabinet of yes-men ? Yes please !

Netenyahu's birthday and christmas both came at once.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#820

Post by ajsnigrutin »

fny wrote: post #747
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

The big mistake was underestimating the appetite for rebellion despite 70%-80% wholesale opposition to the regime.[0] I personally know many, many Iranians who welcome the attacks along with their families. All of the high-profile assassinations involve intelligence from Iranians. However, no one has guns, and government-backed militias roam the streets to maintain order.[1] There is no possibility of military coup.…

Let's be fair, they're being attacked by a foreign superpower, if something "brings the people together" is having a common external enemy.

I assume you don't live in iran and don't converse with iranians who live in iran and have bombs fall on their homes. If you asked yugoslav people in argentina in 1945, they'd be very anti-communist too... the situation in yugoslavia was a lot different (just giving an example from home).

The statistics are well... just statistics, if you collected the stats on trump support in san francisco near colleges, you'd get a drastically different result then on the elections. Same thing is happening in eg. serbia, where "everyone hates vucic", but the second you leave urban areas or ask anyone above 50yo, the situation is much different.

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