Earlier quoted context omitted.
Right re 80 million in Germany. After a bombing campaign, most of the people tend to hate whoever bombed them.
I don't believe you understand how modern bombs work.
Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
471–480 of 1001 posts
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#472Earlier quoted context omitted.
Drones have limited range. Perhaps a submarine would be better: sneak close to your target, raise a pipe from the sub to the surface, then launch a bunch of drones from it.
Look at SSGNs. Not drone carriers, but TLAM is pretty close to drone warfare from the US's point of view.
Ehm, there is the tiny issue of cost and overall inventory size ...
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#473A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…
You think the pentagon was like "shit, Iran is bigger than we thought"?
Of course not, but it's very believable that the current administration ignored what the pentagon told them.
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#474Must be nice for western arm chair commentators to discuss this without once feeling the consequences of the actions of their elected government.
Where I live - we face a severe shortage of LPG fuel due to this. Quite a few restaurants have shut down temporarily. Migrant workers around the parts who have no access to a kitchen because they live in tiny quarters with a bedding and a common toilet are struggling to find sustainable food. Acquaintances who own workshop are running around trying to figure out food arrangements for their employees. And we are not even party to this shitty war!
We are making do with electric alternatives but thats also because we are in the top 5%. Our household staff are struggling to figure out the situation. Induction gas stoves are either stocked our or selling for 3-4x their regular price. Even if they get access to one - electric supply is unreliable and they are not sure how to pay the bill. Electricity usage is subsidized (its free upto 200 Kwh / month) but if it exceeds that they will have to pay full price which hurts their budget quite a lot.
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#475Earlier quoted context omitted.
The position of the article seems to me to be it 'won't' because it can't. And that is an accurate assessment. It would take much more than the forces in the region, to secure the "strait". To actually secure the strait, you have to secure the entire Persian Gulf. It doesn't matter if tankers can pass through the strait only to be blown up just of Qatar. At it's widest the Gulf is about 360 kilometers, well within th…
> The US navies ships are good for real wars This is a real war.
It's not the first time that overwhelming force fails to deliver results for the US when they get bogged down in an asymmetric war. The Korean and Vietnam wars last century still involved air carriers parked off the coast of Korea and Vietnam. But in the end, those wars turned into messy grinds. And even with extensive navy and air support resulted in eventual withdrawal/cease fires on unfavorable terms. Vietnam especially was painful.
Asymmetric war fare against a determined enemy is just hard and it always has been. Cheap drones and missiles are part of wars like that now. You can stash them all over the place and dig in. The Russians learned that the hard way in Afghanistan. As did the British before them. And more recently the US of course. The withdrawal from Afghanistan rivaled that of the one in Vietnam. Complete with chaotic scenes of people desperately trying to get out. That's only a few years ago.
In the Gulf, the Houthis still pose a threat after years of determined efforts to take them out. In the same way, it took the Israeli's very long to neutralize Hamas in Gaza. And that's a few tens of miles away from their capital. Same with Hezbollah on their northern border. In Iraq, IEDs kept grinding away at the US forces long after victory was declared. And that was with massive amounts of boots on the ground and the country fully defeated and occupied.
Iran of course has been supplying weaponry for proxy wars like this for decades. Iran is much bigger than Iraq or Afghanistan and much better prepared for a land/guerilla war on their own territory. The country was built on asymmetric warfare like this and has had decades to prepare and dig in and lots of experience via the various proxy wars I mentioned. The unfortunate reality is that that straight is only going to open when Iran decides that is in their interest.
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#476Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…
The real thought experiment is ~600m people in central/south American within ~6000km, i.e. IRBM range of US gulf coast, where ~50% of US oil refinery and LNG plant production are. Now that Iran has validated mid tier power can cobble together precision strike complex, it's only going to be matter of time before relatively wealthier countries realize only way out of M/Donroe is to build conventional strike against US…
Downvoting a description of a technical solution for smaller nations based on actual evidence from existing conflicts is silly. You might not like the politics you perceive from someone using particular vocabulary, but the proof is there. The USA's supremacy has been challenged in a meaningful way (along with every other major military power). The strategies of the large powers will have to evolve.
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#477A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…
Germany has 80+ mil inhabitants. Also 90,000,000 people doesn't mean 90,000,000 soldiers, especially when a large part of them hate their own regime.
> Also 90,000,000 people doesn't mean 90,000,000 soldiers, especially when a large part of them hate their own regime.
You know what engenders nationalism? Attack on your way of life and the murder of someone you know by said attack.
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#478Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US military did exactly that two weeks ago: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5789279-strait-hormuz-oil... If it was as effective as you presume, the strait would have been open by now.
That was step one. The article doesn't even state the results of the bombing
isn't it obvious?
some rearranged concrete, maybe mixed with missile parts
does not change anything
unless you know you have eliminated ALL threads
which you would never know
and probably never achieve anyway
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#479Your military and whoever directs them are criminals, and are guilty of horrible crimes. And those who back them are accomplices.
This is true for most militaries, of course, some more than others - see the Hague Invasion Act[0].
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members'_Prot...
Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz
#480I haven’t read the article but what exactly are you going to blast? You can fire the Shahed drone from the back of a pick up truck. They could be scattered all over the country they’re cheap as hell to make and they could pump out hundreds of thousands of them.