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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#801

Post by gcanyon »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

I am not a military expert, but the US theory of war has for a long time started with and was based on airspace dominance/control, and drones/cheap missiles put a serious dent in achieving that. Maybe laser weapons put the balance back toward the side that has them?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#802

Post by rbanffy »

danbruc wrote: post #778
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

The big mistake was attacking a state in violation of international law.

Any country that can veto a UN resolution is, effectively, immune to international law.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#803

Post by sheepscreek »

The US Navy does not operate in a vacuum, it serves at the pleasure of the commander-in-chief. And when the current administration is hell bent on undermining and underestimating everyone and everything, you’d be a fool to believe any report or conclusion. While it may be completely true and reasonable, it does nothing to dictate the future outcome.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#804

Post by FpUser »

vbezhenar wrote: post #668
account42 wrote: post #631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the whole point of having nukes - so others won't attack you.

No, it is not. Russia was attacked by Ukraine multiple times and nukes are still not used. India, Pakistan and China are in various stages of conflicts with each other for decades and all of them are nuke-enabled super-powers. There are three points of having nukes: 1. Deter other countries with nukes from using them against you, or your military ally. 2. Prevent total annihilation in the war. You can lose the war, b…

This applies to incumbents (well maybe until it does not). Smaller countries facing destruction of their regime might actually use the nukes. Probably do the test first along with the warning

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#805

Post by rbanffy »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Countermeasures can take out some attacking missiles, but not all of them.

Exactly. On asymmetrical warfare, one side needs to get lucky all the time while the other only needs to get lucky once.

> Mass-produced drones today are a simple airframe, a lawnmower engine, and the smarts of a cell phone. Ukraine has people making them in basements. Presumably, so does Iran.

Their cheap and simple nature allows them to easily swarm targets and saturate their defenses. You can defend from a dozen incoming drones, but a hundred is significantly more difficult.

Also, consider the massive quadcopter shows in China as an example of how a well placed shipping container can swarm a target and make a devastating attack. Ukraine demonstrated one and disabled a significant part of the Russian bomber fleet.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US.

Cuba would be foolish not to do that at the first opportunity, not to attack the US, but to neutralize any offensive from the US. Without a navy, a land invasion, or an effective blockade, is impossible.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#807

Post by andrewflnr »

culi wrote: post #539
recursivedoubts wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a strong majority of the united states citizens are against the war, despite a full court propaganda press against the right and a no-kings distraction op against the left https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/03/25/americans-br... don't confuse american citizens with the bought-and-paid talking & tweeting heads we are forced to live with

The No Kings protests I saw were full of anti-war signs. I kinda assumed the whole protest was an anti-war protest primarily so I'm surprised to hear this take

It's an anti-Trump protest, so named because of how badly Trump wishes he was a king. The slogan (and organization, maybe?) dates back to at least the start of his current term.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#808

Post by torlok »

kjellsbells wrote: post #407
vgchh wrote: post #405

Irrespective of the political leadership, it's unlikely that USA military is completely oblivious about the new modes of wars - cheap drones, AI, rapid build-outs (e.g. in China). On the contrary, they are likely deeply aware of it. That being said, it is also likely true that USA has become more bureaucratic and there is a high chance of deer-in-headlights situation. USA remains the shining city on the hill, though…

There's no shortage of national security and military analysis talent in the US. There is a gigantic shortage of intestinal fortitude in the politicians. The Army tried reducing the sizeof their tank force, and had to back down after screams from Congress because it would have meant job losses in some representative's district. The US poured money into the strike fighter and littoral ship projects, despite the brass…

Sorry, are you suggesting that the US top brass wants less of something, but the politicians won't let them? That the US top brass would reform and modernize the military if only politicians wouldn't get in the way? Is this April Fools?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#809

Post by jvanderbot »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

This is a fairly well trod argument. It also requires a fairly long series of strawman arguments to come together. Yes, there are challenges, but ...

The reality of Hormuz was well known decades ago - even in 2002 Millenium exercise a bunch of speedboats and motorcycles stopped the US Navy from opening hormuz. [1]

Moskva was taken down by a well coordinated strike that distracted its one (1!) fire control radar. It was also alone. Those are important factors. [2]

A blanket comparison of Russia's attempts to eliminate Ukraine's industry with US Navy's ability to eliminate Iran's is ... questionable. We've flown 1000s of uncontested sorties over Ukraine, and Russia has been relegated to knocking down apartment buildings with Iran's own drones.

It is entirely possible that the US Navy is commanded by myopic idiots who fall for those tricks, but I doubt it.

Finally, it's not entirely clear that the large population won't, itself, become at least partially an asset of the resistance.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

[2]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/04/14/ukrain...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#810

Post by lazyguythugman »

I think these articles are a bit rushed. The very objectives are the reason the US has not moved on the straight. Obviously Iran has built up an insane arsenal. Rushing the straight is poor strategy when you have freedom of skies to pick apart their capabilities. Everything's a narrative article nowadays. If aircraft carriers were so vulnerable we wouldn't even send them that close.
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