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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#631

Post by account42 »

integricho wrote: post #535
asa400 wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

It is so rich hearing that America can attack anybody, but godforbid an attack on the "homeland" is an unforgivable act that will invoke nukes immediately.

That's the whole point of having nukes - so others won't attack you.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#632

Post by markdown »

nevi-me wrote: post #575
unethical_ban wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one said nukes, that a giant leap even from the most crazy non nuclear attack. No one said the US is acting smartly, either, but it should not be surprising that the US would react harshly to a neighbor sending rockets.

To an otherwise defenceless country, it's really the same thing. Indiscriminately flattening buildings without notifying civilians to move, destroying industries, stealing their resources and reserves. Who can recover from this, especially a small nation? You might as well declare everything to be radioactive. So they'd react harshly even when they started it.

> Indiscriminately flattening buildings without notifying civilians to move

Boy they've really normalised this, haven't they?

No, it's not okay to destroy civilian infrastructure and make people homeless just because you dropped a pamphlet 30 minutes before you did do

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#633

Post by rob74 »

mschild wrote: post #624
rob74 wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...also, Germany has 84,000,000 people, so definitely not half of Iran. > Having said that Iran could sink an american ship if the navy will become complaicent and will assume there are no threats. Also, this is an election year in the US, and the war is already hugely unpopular, so despite all of Hegseth's posturing, they're probably playing it extra extra safe. That's also the reason why Trump is so angry that othe…

> ...also, Germany has 84,000,000 people, so definitely not half of Iran. I think OP meant land mass not people with the country comparison.

They also write that Iran is "2/3 of Russia", when surface-wise it's not even one tenth, so I doubt that they meant that...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#634

Post by lawgimenez »

asa400 wrote: post #438
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

USA “flattened” and invaded Afghanistan but decades after Taliban is just back again.

I don’t know, maybe it’s time for USA to just stop getting involved in wars.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#635

Post by xarope »

thelastgallon wrote: post #373

Also Millennium Challenge 2002 (MC02) was a major war game exercise conducted by the United States Armed Forces under United States Joint Forces Command in mid-2002: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 Red, commanded by retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper, adopted an asymmetric strategy. In particular, Red utilized old methods to evade Blue's sophisticated electronic surveill…

wasn't one of the controversies, that the simulation didn't account for the fact that Red's boats couldn't actually/launch carry the cruise missiles that were used to sink these ships?

be that as it may, the lesson still stands

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#636

Post by zimpenfish »

asa400 wrote: post #438
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

> After 9/11, there's no world in which any attack on the US homeland, however small or local, is met with anything other than overwhelming retribution.

Unless it's by a right-wing white male, obvs., in which case they get promoted / lauded / re-elected / etc.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#637

Post by ErroneousBosh »

asa400 wrote: post #438
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

> it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon

With what? The UK has already said we're not saving you this time. You're on your own now.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#638

Post by [deleted] »

Galanwe wrote: post #623
rjzzleep wrote: post #614

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People way underestimate what kind of mental fortitude you have to have to fight an overwhelming enemy. That's not something a tourism oriented country like Cuba has. At least I massively doubt that. It lacks the ideology to fight such a war, since you have to be ready to die. That's why Yemen and Vietnam won, while Venezuela folded. This is also why US "culture" is so much more powerful as a weapon than the aircraft…

The willingness to fight until the end, whatever the cost, is not something you rate a priori. The thing with war is that once you have it for a certain amount of time, you create a generation of people whose kids died, wife died, neighbors and family died, you have nothing to loose anymore. There is a critical mass of casualties upon which you effectively create a population whose sole purpose, for generations, will…

[deleted]

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#639

Post by m_mueller »

blitzar wrote: post #555
somat wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quick, what's the difference between a suicide drone and a guided missile?

the good guys bomb is a guided missile, the bad guys bomb is a suicide drone cruise missiles in the hands of a bad guy is a suicide drone and a suicide drone in the hands of a good guy is a guided missile

a guided missile would never be used against a civilian target! oh wait..

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#640

Post by zimpenfish »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #621
maxglute wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real thought experiment is ~600m people in central/south American within ~6000km, i.e. IRBM range of US gulf coast, where ~50% of US oil refinery and LNG plant production are. Now that Iran has validated mid tier power can cobble together precision strike complex, it's only going to be matter of time before relatively wealthier countries realize only way out of M/Donroe is to build conventional strike against US…

> 50% of PRODUCTION, not plants, as in a few plants responsible for 50% of US refinery / LNG production. This is making a pretty big assumption that the long-term US energy mix is going to stay the way it is. The primary historical impediment to electric vehicles was high up-front cost, in turn driven by high battery costs. However: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-battery-cell-pric... We're soon to have el…

> This is making a pretty big assumption that the long-term US energy mix is going to stay the way it is.

It's the stated goal of one of the parties to keep or increase fossil fuel usage, isn't it?

> Meanwhile the US administration flips parties every four to eight years

Magic 8 Ball says "yeah, in the past, 2028 isn't looking good though"

> next time they're Democrats they'll be trying to hasten that result

Which will be blocked and/or immediately overturned by the current/next Republic Congress/Senate/SCOTUS/President.

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