Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

responsiblestatecraft.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

731–740 of 1001 posts

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#731

Post by emptyfile »

randomNumber7 wrote: post #296
jandrewrogers wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aerial drone capable of materially damaging a modern navy ship costs $1-2M a piece. Anything much cheaper doesn't have the range, survivability, or required warhead to do much more than scratch the paint. A cheap drone is only useful against soft targets. It is the reason Ukraine is scaling up heavy cruise missile production even though they already have vast numbers of cheap long-range drones. Being "cheap" isn't…

These boat drones ukraine used to sink some russian ships seem to be very hard to avoid.

[dead]

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#732

Post by baq »

jacquesm wrote: post #652
baq wrote: post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the scenario happened the first bombing runs would be over after 2h and would continue for the next 48h until amphibious assault fast response finishes landing, by which time it’s safe to assume there isn’t much left to defend (though rubble makes a horrible war zone for the attacking side). Cuba simply isn’t Iran. They’re a blockaded island with not much military experience. Iran is a huge mountainous count…

Yes, and then they will be welcomed with open arms, right?

I don't think they'd be welcomed at all is the point...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#733

Post by maplethorpe »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

Wait, wasn't the Iranian military obliterated? What do they have left?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#734

Post by temp8830 »

boc wrote: post #318
sph wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Number 1 reason why I want to see the United States of America and its very loud citizens get a taste of humble pie in this self-inflicted crisis of idiocy with global ramifications. Even when discussing a war that's obviously gone out of hand with no easy resolution in right, there's still this air, this attitude from American commenters that somehow the might and brilliance of the US military will prevail in the en…

[flagged]

Some folks had to be in line for gas 50 years ago, and the revenge for that is killing children? I guess "dumb" doesn't describe this. "Insane" is a better fit.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#735

Post by kdheiwns »

chadash wrote: post #727
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

I’m not sure I agree with your argument but all of it made sense until you started talking about Cuba. Iran knows that the US population really really doesn’t want a ground invasion. Right now, we have lost a handful of lives from missiles hitting US bases, but it’s not the same as a ground war. Cuba, however, would very much get a ground invasion if they start striking the US with missiles. It’s not even a question.…

Iran also knows that Americans don't want high gas prices so they targeted Americans' wallets from the outset. If even a half-assed invasion attempt existed that so much as involved a single dock being damaged, the psychological damage to America would be intense. America hasn't really been invading in, what, 2 centuries? War is a thing that happens "over there", never at home. It's easy to dissociate and pretend it doesn't affect you. Once people realize they've poked a bear, regret sinks in fast.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#736

Post by jabron »

cherryteastain wrote: post #728
zimpenfish wrote: post #648

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. According to [0], in 2025 Iran had 86M people. Ukraine had 29M (~33%), Germany (highest in Europe) had 83M (~96%, uh?), Iraq had 46M (~53%), and Russia had 146M (~168% / ~59% reversed). Wildly, wildly wrong about Germany but not too far off the rest[1]. [0] https://en.wiki…

Presumably they meant WW2 Germany.

Germany's population in 1938 was higher. Around 86 million.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#737

Post by dmos62 »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

I like the size and population take, but the industry perspective is bad: Russia doesn't have air superiority. US and Israel do. Cuba becoming a base for Shaed drones? You are out of touch with how much industry you need for that. They are cheap, but they are not FPVs or off-the-shelf Mavics.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#738

Post by blitzar »

vgchh wrote: post #405

Irrespective of the political leadership, it's unlikely that USA military is completely oblivious about the new modes of wars - cheap drones, AI, rapid build-outs (e.g. in China). On the contrary, they are likely deeply aware of it. That being said, it is also likely true that USA has become more bureaucratic and there is a high chance of deer-in-headlights situation. USA remains the shining city on the hill, though…

> cheap drones, AI, rapid build-outs

Yet the USA military pay $10,000 for the toilet seat on a cargo plane.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#739

Post by flyinglizard »

cess11 wrote: post #581
flyinglizard wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was it true for Japan and Germany post WWII? Or between European nations after the same said war? On the other hand, until a couple of years ago, Iranians and Israeli never directly exchanged even a bullet between them and yet Iran was dedicated to the destruction of Israel, so YMMV.

Yes, hence the continued US occupation after WWII, among other countermeasures. Israel has been killing iranians for quite some time. Here are some notable examples from the last twenty years or so: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassinations_of_Iranian_nucl...

Israel didn't take responsibility for those until October 7th. Now clandestine operations happen all the time, like the Iranian bombing on Jewish center in Argentina in 1994: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMIA_bombing

While I understand why Israel would want to target Iranian nuclear scientists, I find it much harder to comprehend why Iran would go out of their way to bomb a Jewish community center in South America.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#740

Post by jemmyw »

nevi-me wrote: post #575
unethical_ban wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one said nukes, that a giant leap even from the most crazy non nuclear attack. No one said the US is acting smartly, either, but it should not be surprising that the US would react harshly to a neighbor sending rockets.

To an otherwise defenceless country, it's really the same thing. Indiscriminately flattening buildings without notifying civilians to move, destroying industries, stealing their resources and reserves. Who can recover from this, especially a small nation? You might as well declare everything to be radioactive. So they'd react harshly even when they started it.

Korea. The US bombed every building they could and at the end were dumping bombs because they'd run out of targets.
Post reply on HN