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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#651

Post by cycomanic »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany.

Not necessarily disagreeing with your other points, but Germany has a population of ~84 million, so comparable size.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#652

Post by jacquesm »

baq wrote: post #533
bryanrasmussen wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. I sort of think it maybe is an exaggeration, you're evidently of the opinion that the U.S happens to have enough battle ready troops with the requisite hardware positioned within a few hours of Cuba so that they can invade and flatten in the time…

Assuming the scenario happened the first bombing runs would be over after 2h and would continue for the next 48h until amphibious assault fast response finishes landing, by which time it’s safe to assume there isn’t much left to defend (though rubble makes a horrible war zone for the attacking side). Cuba simply isn’t Iran. They’re a blockaded island with not much military experience. Iran is a huge mountainous count…

Yes, and then they will be welcomed with open arms, right?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#653

Post by bwv848 »

lawgimenez wrote: post #642
bwv848 wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is using Patriot to intercept Shaheds. PAC-2/3 are intended for ballistic missiles and fighter jets. In Ukraine, low-flying drones are primarily countered by FPV, MANPADS, drone-hunting aircraft and truck, and EW before point defense SAM and AA gun.

There are videos on r/combatfootage in the early weeks, patriot missiles shooting down drones.

I did a quick search and could only found a missed missile having self destruction. Shaheds have a very distinct noise it shouldn't be too hard to id. While I don't doubt Americans had used patriot on drones, I believe it is because they were(and still are) unprepared and they panicked.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#654

Post by bob1029 »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Mass-produced drones today are a simple airframe, a lawnmower engine, and the smarts of a cell phone. Ukraine has people making them in basements. Presumably, so does Iran.

The ships the LCS are intended to replace are significantly more capable at absorbing damage from this type of threat. If you are willing to go up to destroyer class, you are probably approaching immunity for this scenario.

> Former CIA intelligence officer Robert Finke said the blast appeared to be caused by C4 explosives molded into a shaped charge against the hull of the boat.[6] More than 1,000 pounds (450 kg) of explosive were used.[7] Much of the blast entered a mechanical space below the ship's galley, violently pushing up the deck, thereby killing crew members who were lining up for lunch.[8] The crew fought flooding in the engineering spaces and had the damage under control after three days. Divers inspected the hull and determined that the keel had not been damaged.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#655

Post by avazhi »

yuppiepuppie wrote: post #527
avazhi wrote: post #510

I think Newt had the right idea, albeit in a more targeted fashion instead of just ‘nuking the Strait’. Given that Iran has now taken to directly threatening non-military US commercial and civilian enterprises and assets I’m sure it wouldn’t be difficult to justify using them in this instance.

I can't tell if this is tongue-in-cheek, but if it is not, the escalation of nuclear weapons at this point is an insane idea to accomolish the stated goals of the administracion.

I'm not a Trump fan, but this isn't just the Trump admin, is it. Every administration since Carter has had to deal with Iran, whose stated raison d'être is to eradicate both Israel and the US. That's been their position for 40 years.

My own view is that if you have the power to delete your enemy while he's weak, you do it. Why the fuck would you wait until he gets the nukes he promises to get, or uses them on you like he also promises to do? At least the Israelis seem to understand this.

The US has already alienated their allies anyway, and as we've seen with this fiasco, it isn't like those allies are particularly useful anyway, so if the US did use nukes to very quickly solve what has been an intergenerational problem, so what? Oh no, condemnation from the international community. Nobody cares.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#656

Post by brazzy »

tommica wrote: post #569
alsetmusic wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also 90,000,000 people doesn't mean 90,000,000 soldiers, especially when a large part of them hate their own regime. You know what engenders nationalism? Attack on your way of life and the murder of someone you know by said attack.

If my countrymen were killed by my government by the thousands, I'd not be super happy about defending that government. If the enemy does the same kind of mindless killing to the civilians, then I would have different ideas.

> If the enemy does the same kind of mindless killing to the civilians, then I would have different ideas.

You mean like bombing a school and killing about 150 schoolgirls?

The USA had a lot of local support and goodwill in Afghanistan, and turned it into support for the Taliban, because they kept killing civilians in their attempts to beat the Taliban with bombs, because they wanted to limit the unpopular ground troop deloyments. The chance that the same will happen in Iran is precisely 100%

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#657

Post by jacquesm »

watwut wrote: post #540
asa400 wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

USA is good at bombing places. It just so happen that it usually looses the wars after that and usually creates a lot more probpems for itself in the long run. Taliban is back in power, having stronger grap on power then before. Meanwhile, everybody knows what happens to those who cooperate with USA - they get abandoned and betrayed.

All this does in the long run is set the stage for another 9/11.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#658

Post by [deleted] »

bwv848 wrote: post #653
lawgimenez wrote: post #642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are videos on r/combatfootage in the early weeks, patriot missiles shooting down drones.

I did a quick search and could only found a missed missile having self destruction. Shaheds have a very distinct noise it shouldn't be too hard to id. While I don't doubt Americans had used patriot on drones, I believe it is because they were(and still are) unprepared and they panicked.

[deleted]

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#659

Post by user_7832 »

Kurd wrote: post #431
dundarious wrote: post #377

Trita Parsi of RS had been saying weeks in advance that the Iranians would retaliate against gulf states collaborating with/supporting the US & Israel, would close the Strait of Hormuz, and would continue fighting until it established a pain threshold had been reached and acknowledged by its enemies, in order to prevent yet more "short wars". Iran's previous retaliations that were well choreographed and coordinated i…

Trita Parsi is an Iranian government lobbyist. Of course he would say that.

So he'd have a better idea of what the govt would want to do?

Keep in mind that a govt that feels (admittedly reasonably) that it has been backstabbed and has its head assassinated would not hesitate to call bluffs instead of acting cool. You've ever seen how a cornered wild animal behaves?

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#660

Post by isoprophlex »

Quarrelsome wrote: post #251
protocolture wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>in a nation of some of the brighest minds on the planet Found the assumption that caused the issue.

Its not a false assumption. The world today is full of innovative products built with American capital and mostly American minds. If Americans want to do something then they have an rich pool of talent to do it well. Sure on average, the population of the US is stupid, but that's true of everywhere.

Just because you sold your soul to an economic superspreader meme that allows your products and inventions to percolate with the rapidity of an influenza-herpes-ebola hybrid doesnt mean that the minds behind it are brighter than the rest of the world.
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