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You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

news.ycombinator.com

11–20 of 65 posts

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#11
post #8

You make a surprisingly random assumption (500 apps) and then base your entire post around statistical interpretations of that assumption. Bravo! You should become an economist.

Ok. There were 435 applications for this summer. I assume that YCombinator's traffic has been growing steadily and that more hackers have been captivated by YC, so therefore more will apply. 65 more probably isn't too far off the mark.

As for the other assumption that YC will accept more than they did last time, I'm basing that off of Paul's words.

Can I still become an economist?

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#12
post #9
post #2

Thanks for your advice; I just submitted 20 applications. :) On a serious note, can one apply as a single hacker who doesn't care about which project he takes on?

> Can we apply as single hackers who don't care about which project we take on? Not to be YC specific, but just in general, who would want to invest in someone who doesn't care?

Great question. I'm a hacker, so I'd be useful from day one. Secondly, I've stuck with one idea for about four years, selling the product for 3 and a half years, so I have no problem adding features or maintaining code.

Here is what matters to me more than a specific idea:

1) I'd like to have lawyers and accountants from the beginning, versus doing it myself.

2) I'd like to start with an investment from the beginning, versus doing it with nothing, therefore being undercapitalized the entire time.

3) On a daily basis, I'd like to work with smart people, versus working with nobody else. It'd be great to have an even ownership split, and to start with each other from day one.

4) I want to afford to live (by live, I mean sustain, nothing special) in a place with other technology folks, so I never feel bored or get an ego, versus living in the middle-of-nowhere.

The reason I'm asking here is because I've considered visiting big universities or even furthering my college career just to meet people for a future project, but it would be logically crazy to do so. The problem is that a lot of CS majors aren't entrepreneurial, and sometimes even immature. News.YC is the best place to find other hackers who want to do a startup. Period. Even better than attending a great computer science school.

I originally followed pg's correct advice to leave school and release "early."

The problem is that after I released "early", I had a small userbase that I gradually grew, and while they helped me find bugs, I got stuck to a small income stream and could never find the time to expand to bigger sources of revenue considering I was fixing bugs, adding features, doing market research, and tech support.

Releasing early is good if you have the means (money, people, contacts, knowledge) to not get distracted, so it's nice that YCombinators and TechStars exist now to take advantage of your highs and give you advice.

However, creating a product while being undercapitalized is futile. From not having health insurance and getting injured for a while, to having to progressively go from a $2/mo host, to a $20/m host, getting tons of visitors to my site from my specific, paying audience--except my site used up the 15GB of bandwidth in half a day. I've also had to make a lot of 'transitional' ideas to keep it all working, all so I could have this experience on a low budget for many years. Another problem was that I was tied to an income stream and keeping up with it for the $500 or $600/mo just to keep the business expenses, keeping me away from doing 2 important things that I planned my first year, because otherwise, I'd have to fold. It's definitely been worth it for everything except money, of course.

For example, I got dozens of great reviews from different paying customers all over the world, and that was the #1 most important thing to me all those years. So I spent this summer making it run on auto-pilot, this time with my own custom software, and a better self-service (another problem is that before, I preferred to have a simple interface and have users e-mail me with questions to avoid being too public, but now, I will add tons of Q&A's so I don't have to answer questions about what the program can do and what I'm planning on adding to it.)

So, I proved to myself that I can make people happy with no investment. Now I want to do it the right way.

In fact, maybe I should do something for people my age while I can still relate--another reason I don't care about the idea is because mine currently targets adults, and having been Student Body President, founding a newspaper club, a chess club, and being in many different unrelated after-school activities when I was in high school, I found I enjoyed it all. But, there is no reason that while you're spending all your time on a project, that you have to do it underfunded, since even for a realistic web service you'd have to be able to support servers costing hundreds of dollars and not annoy users with ads until you can figure out the best way to make it work, and more importantly, start with good resources (teammates, investors, advisors, money).

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#13
post #6
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm certain that's a bad idea. They were overwhelmed by the 400+ apps they got last time...I don't think they'd take kindly to someone gaming the system and forcing them to read an extra 20 apps (I'm pretty sure the round file would be the only one seeing all of your applications).

I went back and made it more obvious I was kidding. But is there any hacker serious about being an entrepreneur and working on a project during the Winter session and beyond?

Contact me.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#14
post #10
post #4

Where'd you get the "accepting 25" number? Just curious. It seemed like 19 was a bit overwhelming for them this time. But since the CA office is bigger, and there are more former founders out here that would be able to relieve some of the advisory role pressure, they might be willing to bump the number up again, assuming enough of the applications are good.

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47372 Certainly not hard evidence but the limiting factor seems to be good applications, not how many they're able to accept. That's a great sign.

Maybe even more than 500. [link eludes me] But somewhere it was written that the Cambridge session was the unpopular session. And since May 2007 YC has been featured in Newsweek, in addition to getting a groundswell press from each individual company (eg. Weebly in Time).

I'd bank on about 700-800 applications.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#15
post #14
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47372 Certainly not hard evidence but the limiting factor seems to be good applications, not how many they're able to accept. That's a great sign.

Maybe even more than 500. [link eludes me] But somewhere it was written that the Cambridge session was the unpopular session. And since May 2007 YC has been featured in Newsweek , in addition to getting a groundswell press from each individual company (eg. Weebly in Time ). I'd bank on about 700-800 applications.

> somewhere it was written that the Cambridge session was the unpopular session

If anything it's the other way around, because fewer people are free to try something new on Jan 1 than June 1.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#16
post #7

Why wait for someone else's approval? Don't leave your fate up to someone else's whim. And don't forget there are many, many other investors. [Edit: Also don't forget you can set up Google ads on your own; or have actual paying customers. You may not need any investment at all.]

We work hard enough evaluating applications that we can probably claim our choices are more than whims.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#17
post #8

You make a surprisingly random assumption (500 apps) and then base your entire post around statistical interpretations of that assumption. Bravo! You should become an economist.

It's doesn't seem that far off. It would be surprising if the ratio was as high as 1:10 or as low as 1:30.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#18
post #6
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm certain that's a bad idea. They were overwhelmed by the 400+ apps they got last time...I don't think they'd take kindly to someone gaming the system and forcing them to read an extra 20 apps (I'm pretty sure the round file would be the only one seeing all of your applications).

I went back and made it more obvious I was kidding. But is there any hacker serious about being an entrepreneur and working on a project during the Winter session and beyond?

I am interested, please contact me at pbnaidu@gmail.com

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#19
post #12
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can we apply as single hackers who don't care about which project we take on? Not to be YC specific, but just in general, who would want to invest in someone who doesn't care?

Great question. I'm a hacker, so I'd be useful from day one. Secondly, I've stuck with one idea for about four years, selling the product for 3 and a half years, so I have no problem adding features or maintaining code. Here is what matters to me more than a specific idea: 1) I'd like to have lawyers and accountants from the beginning, versus doing it myself. 2) I'd like to start with an investment from the beginning…

"I should do something for people my age while I can still relate. You can't do something like that without an investment, since you have to be able to support servers costing hundreds of dollars and not annoy users with ads until you can figure out the best way to make it work."

You can do something for people your age, see if they relate, and then take investment when you need to scale. Apparently, it's not hard to get investors if you're so snowed under with traffic that your servers are busting at the seams.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#20
post #16
post #7

Why wait for someone else's approval? Don't leave your fate up to someone else's whim. And don't forget there are many, many other investors. [Edit: Also don't forget you can set up Google ads on your own; or have actual paying customers. You may not need any investment at all.]

We work hard enough evaluating applications that we can probably claim our choices are more than whims.

All personal evaluations are subject to whims. An investor does or doesn't like the idea; does or doesn't like the people. Cisco was turned down by 70 or 80 VCs. Nobody has a crystal ball, and at the end of the day, you guess; the dealmaker or breaker is frequently some arbitrary factor.
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