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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#521

Post by pnt12 »

andrewflnr wrote: post #305

How much of this is fixed if a person is only able to bet token amounts on each outcome? Let's get crazy and make it $20. A few crazy people might run Sybil attacks but it'll be a lot more limited and obvious. Not that I'm opposed to consigning all these gambling apps back to the fiery depths from which they came, but if you do want to preserve the ability of healthy people to have a little bit of fun, limiting the b…

We're seeing high bets the day before, such that the bet goes through without too many people noticing and adjusting. Maybe forbidding bets X days before deadline would help to reduce chance of insider trading?

Or just shut down the whole thing. Bets on bombing is truly immoral and downright despicable.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#522

Post by pnt12 »

joe_the_user wrote: post #520
snaily wrote: post #162

Here's an alleged secondary effect of 2 in a quote by Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan[1]: “When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying, ‘Hey, we’re looking at Polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter; we look at it every day’ and I’m like, ‘Oh, it’s really that popular over there?’” he added. “That’s very powerful. That’s an undeniable value proposition that did not exist before.…

Oh, An adding bonus would be nations tilting prediction odds to get people sleeping in vulnerable places and then bomb those place - ideally the nation also reversing their deceptive bets at the last minute.

And as a cherry on the cake: making a bet a few hours before so they can profit (even more) from it.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#523

Post by moconnor »

snaily wrote: post #162

Here's an alleged secondary effect of 2 in a quote by Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan[1]: “When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying, ‘Hey, we’re looking at Polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter; we look at it every day’ and I’m like, ‘Oh, it’s really that popular over there?’” he added. “That’s very powerful. That’s an undeniable value proposition that did not exist before.…

This is naive. The people deciding about the bombing will profit most by taking a very large and unlikely position against the market’s predictions and then carrying it out immediately.

Anonymous trading on prediction markets leads to unpredictable chaos in the end. And as destruction is easier than creation that’s what we will see more of.

Example: a fake German market for train punctuality was announced to make a point recently. If it had been real, train staff and passengers could trivially have profited by betting against any expected punctual train and blocking a door for a few minutes. Or betting against many trains and throwing a hopefully fake body onto a busy line.

Having nice things in society is fragile and not a given. They mostly exist through mutual consent and mild disincentives to destroy the common good. Allow people to profit by destroying them and enough of them will.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#525

Post by moconnor »

rbbydotdev wrote: post #254

It's tough, because I think outlawing 'vices' like gambling is an infringement on your individual freedom - but when it's done with an enterprise it's so much more problematic. Thinking about for instance tobacco companies vs locally grown in the backyard.

We also outlaw vices like physical violence and property theft.

Society is fundamentally counter to individual freedom, and the degree determines the nature of that society and the degree of cooperation possible within it.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#527

Post by jaccola »

chias wrote: post #502
andrewflnr wrote: post #305

How much of this is fixed if a person is only able to bet token amounts on each outcome? Let's get crazy and make it $20. A few crazy people might run Sybil attacks but it'll be a lot more limited and obvious. Not that I'm opposed to consigning all these gambling apps back to the fiery depths from which they came, but if you do want to preserve the ability of healthy people to have a little bit of fun, limiting the b…

I'd bet that a significant majority of prediction market revenue comes from people who bet big. So I expect your solution would fix all of it, as a second order effect, in that running one would stop being a viable business model.

I bet that most of their revenue doesn't come from people who want to bet big!

If only there were some kind of market where we could materialise our bets...

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#528

Post by closewith »

hunterpayne wrote: post #418
closewith wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cars kill more than guns. In most countries, but not in the US.

Just some context because gun violence studies are probably the most manipulated data sets in history. The two numbers (auto deaths and gun deaths) are pretty close to each other and different policies can and do push one above the other. - Most of those gun deaths are suicides and the vast majority would happen anyway without guns. - This wasn't true before about 2015 and the change (increase in non-suicide gun deat…

Americans desperately trying to justify their firearm fetish is embarrassing.

> PS A "curve-off" public welfare policy is far more effective than banning guns.

Roll eyes emoji.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#529

Post by nickpp »

krastanov wrote: post #411
WalterBright wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It does both! No, it does not concentrate wealth. Wealth is not a fixed pie. In a free market, you get wealthy by creating wealth, not concentrating it. As for monopolies, competition is what prevents them.

This sounds incredibly naive. Competition does not magically prevent monopolies -- once you have a dominant player they just buy or undercut the occasional competing startup.

> once you have a dominant player they just buy or undercut the occasional competing startup

If they buy startups, a thousand more will spring up hoping to be bought. Investors love this game.

And if you think undercutting works, read up on the story of Dow and how they broke the German bromine monopoly [1].

There is no such thing as a natural monopoly. Only governments can create monopolies, usually through regulation.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Henry_Dow#Breaking_a_m...

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