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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#511

Post by flir »

WalterBright wrote: post #338
flir wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When resources and opportunities get concentrated at the top of the pyramid, people get more desperate to take any advantage that comes their (or their children's) way. In really bad situations, it stops being about improvement and starts being about avoidance of decline. The late Roman Republic is an example - wealth, land and influence concentrated in fewer hands, society just gets more vicious and corrupt as peopl…

> When resources and opportunities get concentrated at the top of the pyramid In a free market system, wealth is created, not concentrated.

Why do you see those two processes as orthagonal?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#512

Post by ifwinterco »

paulddraper wrote: post #92
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

They’re the financial equivalent of recreational drugs. Not everyone gets addicted, but many do. Harms your own health/assets. Can destroy lives. Has spillover effects into general society. The libertarian/authoritarian argument is much the same.

Not sure why you're getting downvoted, you are absolutely correct. It's exactly the same problem.

You can ban drugs/gambling, but some people are unfortunately just wired to seek them out and will do so regardless. So a ban results in fewer people using them in total, but all of the revenue going to the black market.

In an extreme scenario (for example, you ban a drug used by a large % of the population), that black market revenue becomes a real problem and you get Al Capone driving around Chicago with a Tommy gun shooting at people, massive corruption etc.

I wouldn't put gambling in that bracket but a significant minority of people are wired to enjoy it and historically when it was illegal it was a significant fraction of the revenue stream of organised crime, so completely banning it is not cost free - you will get a slice of violence and political corruption to go with it.

Having said that I agree there should be restrictions on advertising especially anywhere kids might be exposed to it

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#513

Post by kqr »

AlexandrB wrote: post #237
FajitaNachos wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

poker and slots are two very different variants of gambling. Sure, there is plenty of chance/variance in poker but there is an undeniable skill component that is lacking in slots.

The one that really infuriates me is blackjack where - if you apply skill by counting cards - you get kicked out of the casino.

This has always been the case for most high-stakes gambling. The problem isn't winning big, the problem is getting the counterparty to pay. Skilled gamblers (when it comes to games with any skill component) throughout history have been adept at winning subtly and then moving on before anyone figures out they have an edge.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#514

Post by kqr »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #322
kqr wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no fees on Polymarket. Not sure about others.

> There are no fees on Polymarket "Currently, small fees apply to Crypto and Sports markets. Starting March 30, 2026, this will expand to include other categories like Finance, Politics, Economics, Culture, Weather, and Tech" [1]. More critically, Polymarket doesn't pay interest on deposits. (Kalshi does.) [1] https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364478-trading-fee...

Thanks for the correction! I have to admit it was a while since I last looked into this and I shouldn't have been so confident.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#515

Post by ugh123 »

Towaway69 wrote: post #510

Is there a site which implements the ideas behind the file Indecent Proposal[1]? It would be a site where folks could start auctions based on stuff they want from other folks. So Bob wants Janes jumper. He goes onto the site, creates an auction with an initial offer of $5. Jane is informed that Bob wants to buy her jumper. She turns down the offer. Bob raises his offer to $10. She declines the offer. Then Cane joins…

This sounds like a great Black Mirror episode

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#516

Post by Shaanie »

dogcomplex wrote: post #504
joelthelion wrote: post #499

There is a class of prediction markets that are useful and seem immune to most of these problems : play money prediction markets. I've been enjoying them for years; I feel they provide a useful service to understand what is going on in the world, and they don't seem to provide the perverse incentives that we are seeing here. Oh, and they seem to work just as well.

Prediction markets are just fine IF they have some means of regulation against insider trading and perverse incentives. This phase is the same thing derivatives markets looked like before the 2008 crisis and Dodd-Frank, and several other waves before that of crisis and reform (Securities Act, Market Reform Act). Every new financial medium gets its moment in the sun when all the crooks extract everything they can, bef…

How do you suppose that would work? The only predictions possible are things which are virtually impossible to influence, like atmospheric events?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#517

Post by foxglacier »

andrewflnr wrote: post #305

How much of this is fixed if a person is only able to bet token amounts on each outcome? Let's get crazy and make it $20. A few crazy people might run Sybil attacks but it'll be a lot more limited and obvious. Not that I'm opposed to consigning all these gambling apps back to the fiery depths from which they came, but if you do want to preserve the ability of healthy people to have a little bit of fun, limiting the b…

You sound like the people proposing how a social network could operate without making people addicted to doomscrolling. Anyone can make a worse service like that but it won't stop the superior service from operating, which is the problem.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#518

Post by kqr »

saltyoldman wrote: post #95

Correct me if I'm wrong, but can't you also craft an Etherium contract to do the same thing as these prediction markets. So even without a company "framing all the markets" you could still have gambling based on base eth?

Yes, this is precisely how Polymarket works under the hood. IIRC you can even participate by working directly with the smart contracts.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#519

Post by watwut »

randycupertino wrote: post #475
willio58 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a state in the U.S. that’s had legalized gambling for decades. I grew up seeing gambling addicts walk around my city. It’s always been bad, but in my eyes it’s so much worse now that anyone can tip tap on their phone and gamble away everything they have. At least you used to have to fly to Vegas or something to bet (and lose) big.

My friend's idiot loser husband got addicted to sports betting and day trading and lost their life savings and even spent kids college funds. She found out because he had started to apply for a home equity loan to catch up on some of his debts and they called her to verify some paperwork. The only reason I found out was because she had a HUGE obnoxious gorgeous flower arrangement delivered to her at work and I asked…

> He's never had a decent job it's majority her income so divorcing isn't even that favorable for her now afaik

It is totally favorable, because he is going to make more debt. And if she does not divorce, she will be responsible for that debt. Moreover, money she earns after divorce are her except for the part of debt she is already responsible for. Right now, they are theirs, he has equal access to them and she is half responsible for his current and future debts.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#520

Post by joe_the_user »

snaily wrote: post #162

Here's an alleged secondary effect of 2 in a quote by Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan[1]: “When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying, ‘Hey, we’re looking at Polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter; we look at it every day’ and I’m like, ‘Oh, it’s really that popular over there?’” he added. “That’s very powerful. That’s an undeniable value proposition that did not exist before.…

Oh,

An adding bonus would be nations tilting prediction odds to get people sleeping in vulnerable places and then bomb those place - ideally the nation also reversing their deceptive bets at the last minute.

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