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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

331–340 of 741 posts

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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> You don’t have any enemies. Nobody cares about you. Nobody is coming to hurt you or your family Do you think the U.S. and Israeli militaries have personal vendettas against each and every civilian we've killed in Iran? Of course we don't. We can barely count them. Just because you aren't personally on your community's adversary's radar doesn't mean they aren't a threat. (To be clear, I don't believe Iran was a thre…

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#332

If you wager in a prediction market, isn't it expected that there will be some insider trading or thrown results? Because there are clearly people who know when and where bombs will land, and financial incentive to throw results. Thus it makes sense to not participate at all, unless YOU are the one doing the cheating.

Prediction markets are just inside traders profiting off gambling addicts. If you are not an inside trader, you're the loser paying out.

That's absolutely it. Cheaters or chumps, neither of whom should be encouraged.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. The "freedom" people refer to is "the freedom to be an asshole and exploit people without repercussion".

Don't forget about the freedom in your pants! And by that, I mean a Glock (not reproductive self determination or gender self determination, obviously).

Hmmm...Defending yourself is literally the same as abortion and gender dysphoria.

No.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#334
post #291

All this fearmongering about decision markets lately is really annoying. If you don't like gambling — just don't gamble and shut the fuck up. It's not for you to decide if gambling is good or bad for me. If I am stupid enough to bet anything on an outcome that clearly depends on a person who could, potentially, be betting as well — it's my problem, not yours.

That’s not what people are worried about, it’s the rigging of real world events (including wars!) that has people worried.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#335
post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

Yes. The "freedom" people refer to is "the freedom to be an asshole and exploit people without repercussion".

No. Those are the abusers of freedom who like to pretend their freedom doesn't stop at the tip of our collective noses. They are also a minority regardless of how vocal that small minority and the psyop saboteurs are that egg them on and keep them company.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget about the freedom in your pants! And by that, I mean a Glock (not reproductive self determination or gender self determination, obviously).

Hmmm...Defending yourself is literally the same as abortion and gender dysphoria. No.

Insofar as there's some nuance to what individuals choose to do but we like to eschew that in debate and make blanket statements about what you should or should not be allowed to do?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#337

Gambling may be bad on its own, but the gambling and advertising combo are a very harmful combination IMHO.

I think the worst part is carrying the two in your pocket at all times. Previously a gambler trying to quit could avoid specific locations. How the hell do you avoid the internet?

[deleted]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#338
post #278
post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

When resources and opportunities get concentrated at the top of the pyramid, people get more desperate to take any advantage that comes their (or their children's) way. In really bad situations, it stops being about improvement and starts being about avoidance of decline. The late Roman Republic is an example - wealth, land and influence concentrated in fewer hands, society just gets more vicious and corrupt as peopl…

> When resources and opportunities get concentrated at the top of the pyramid

In a free market system, wealth is created, not concentrated.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#339

> And now here come the prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose combined 2025 revenue came in around $50 billion. Bizarre to call trading volume "revenue". Last year, trading fees for Kalshi amounted to about $263 million[0], whereas Polymarket largely did not have fees in 2025 and is turning them on in a few days[1]. [0]: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-fee-revenue-2025-263-1... [1]: https://g…

Thank you for this call out. I was blown away by that number because it would have meant volume was maybe pushing 1T.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#340
post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism took care of the exchange between money and power long ago. Prediction markets, as terrible as they are, are peanuts in comparison.

yes, because the last century of communism showed that it was really just capitalism where centralized power corrupts..

kqr didn't make that claim
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