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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#241

Post by pixl97 »

pants2 wrote: post #44
cowpig wrote: post #17

Just game-theoretically, suppose you bet $100 on some disaster. That disaster causes $10,000,000 of harm, but only causes you $90 of harm individually. You've gained $10, but your $10 gain is a millionth of the harm caused. Generally-speaking, there's an enormous asymmetry between the cost to create/build and the cost to destroy. So now we have a mechanism by which individuals have a financial incentive to cause harm…

Couldn't that be said of stock markets and any markets? United Healthcare stock dropped 10% immediately after its CEO was killed.

Yes, and sounds like a great way to get RICO conspiracy to commit murder added to your charges just for trading on it.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#242

Post by pcthrowaway »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #185
bluetidepro wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. Can't say I agree with that specific take (and find it a bit naive to be honest), unless you're also not hiring anyone from companies like Amazon, Meta, and all the other tech companies that have also ruined/preyed on society in their own way just as much as any gambling app has.

> unless you're also not hiring anyone from companies like Amazon, Meta, and all the other tech companies that have also ruined/preyed on society in their own way just as much as any gambling app has It depends on the role. If you were doing something deeply technical, or facing customers who loved your work, I think you get a pass. If you were building features nobody outside your company is thankful for, you need t…

Building part of a killing machine isn't really something you can defend, even if you weren't working on the part of the machine that does the killing.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#243

Post by lenerdenator »

taurath wrote: post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

Well, really, that's all countries.

Some dude was willing to resort to more depraved measures than his rivals, and made enough people do what he wanted in order to become the leader.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#245

Post by Rapzid »

jjcm wrote: post #131

These prediction markets shouldn't be allowed for situations where humans can control the outcome. They do have their place however - one I find particularly interesting is weather prediction markets, primary because they end up having a net benefit. Hundreds are creating their own weather prediction models and are duking it out. Over time these models get better, and the rest of us benefit. I think these markets cou…

Who is to say if it rained or not? Well now they are a target.

A NY Times reporter was the target of a pressure and threat campaign to change their reporting over whether a rocket in the middle east was intercepted or not before it hit the ground.

Prediction markets are not going to end well full stop IMHO.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#246

Post by alfalfasprout »

littlecranky67 wrote: post #183
UqWBcuFx6NV4r wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If it is your company then this is fine, it is your money afterall, and can do as you see fit. If you are employed or have co-shareholders, you are managing someone elses money. And you are not supposed to act within your morals, but those of the company. It would be kind of hipocritical to act on your own morals using someone elses money - up to the point where it could be illegal misapropriation. And then taking th…

Acting within your morals is not incompatible with serving the company's interests. Especially if it means your team is very much still competent while maintaining a culture that is healthy. That leads to better delivery.

Avoiding working in deeply unethical areas also shields the company from legal or PR liability.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#247

Post by mrighele »

jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired.

I appreciate your approach, but I wonder: would you hire somebody with a past in Meta, or ByteDance (to just name two)? They are at least as bad in pushing addiction to people, maybe worse if you think about the scale.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#248

Post by AlexandrB »

morkalork wrote: post #157
matsemann wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Norway, gambling is controlled by a state monopoly, same as our alcohol sales. Probably for the same reasons.

Canada too, you buy liquor and lotto tickets from a crown corporation

A lot of gambling is Canada is privatized. Sports gambling, for example. Most of the money being made in the gambling industry is not in the lotto.

Edit: Also the liquor thing varies by province. Ontario has a crown corporation selling liquor, but in Alberta all liquor sales are by private entities.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#249

Post by socalgal2 »

stuffn wrote: post #213
socalgal2 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to prey on a subset of humanity This triggers thoughts. I don't like people being taken advantage of. At the same time, I like my personal liberties. It feels like you can spin this idea for nearly anything. Apparently 25% of alcohol sales are to alcoholics. That sucks and you could spin this has the liquor companies taking advantage, but I have tons of…

The real litmus test for your beliefs is gun rights. Taken to it's logical conclusion you would think that you would be staunchly pro 2A.

I'm not sure my position on 2A but it seems you're making a pretty big leap to connect them.

Guns kill others. To me, that's a big difference. Gambling does not, only indirectly, you gamble your money away your family doesn't eat. But if you're going indirect than anything fits. Cars kill more than guns.

You could argue the similarity is that some people can be responsible with guns and others can't but you're back the previous point. Irresponsible gun use directly harms others. Irresponsible gambling at most indirectly harms others.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#250

Post by sjkoelle »

Aurornis wrote: post #217
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. I do not like gambling or the prevalence of gambling products, but this is not a good thing for you to do. You should not ban people from your job for reasons that are not relevant to the job you're hiring for. People take jobs for many reasons, including some times simply needing to take the first job…

or even if they are pro-gambling jeez would you never be able to work with someone you disagreed with politically
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