We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Mar 26, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC

nimbius wrote: post #115

jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

i live in a small midwest town and had the privilege of watching it slowly atrophy into near nothing over time. the steel mill closing, 2008 market crash, fentanyl crisis, covid, both shopping malls turning into liminal spaces frozen in 1994. The real nail in the coffin was watching the Sears in the mall turn into a casino about a decade ago. Having failed their people at all other prosperities and futures, politicia…

Post by kqr » Thu, Mar 26, 2026, 9:11 PM UTC

jjcm wrote: post #131

These prediction markets shouldn't be allowed for situations where humans can control the outcome. They do have their place however - one I find particularly interesting is weather prediction markets, primary because they end up having a net benefit. Hundreds are creating their own weather prediction models and are duking it out. Over time these models get better, and the rest of us benefit. I think these markets cou…

Post by watwut » Thu, Mar 26, 2026, 9:11 PM UTC

blitzar wrote: post #62

Americans may be shocked to hear that in the rest of the world gambling has been a thing for centuries. We also have people under the age of 20 drinking alcohol. I am not suggesting in any way that gambling is good - but it wasnt invented last week in america

Post by alphawhisky » Thu, Mar 26, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC

throwaway27448 wrote: post #103

taurath wrote: post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

Yes. The "freedom" people refer to is "the freedom to be an asshole and exploit people without repercussion".

Post by Zigurd » Thu, Mar 26, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #96

sam0x17 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially when the "prediction" part isn't even part of the product, it is an accidental byproduct. No one pays for access to the predictions. And they aren't predictions, they are more like "outcome-shaping" markets, since the more liquidity that gets dumped on a particular outcome, the more motivation there is to tamper with the real-world outcome, and at a certain point it will just always happen if it is billion…

Those predictions are just market data, market data is often very expensive (my data usage at work is probably about $100k a year and i'm not even a trader), I imagine polymarket will be too when they are more established.