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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

101–110 of 741 posts

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#101

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

Actually, prediction markets are closer to stock markets (insofar as you consider stock trading to be gambling). Insider trading is the bigger issue

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#102

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

They’re the financial equivalent of recreational drugs. Not everyone gets addicted, but many do. Harms your own health/assets. Can destroy lives. Has spillover effects into general society. The libertarian/authoritarian argument is much the same.

Gambling is the only vice where the store doesn't close. Even the prostitutes go to sleep for a while. But you can drive to the casino and gamble it all away anytime.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#103
post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

Yes. The "freedom" people refer to is "the freedom to be an asshole and exploit people without repercussion".

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#104

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired.

Can't say I agree with that specific take (and find it a bit naive to be honest), unless you're also not hiring anyone from companies like Amazon, Meta, and all the other tech companies that have also ruined/preyed on society in their own way just as much as any gambling app has.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#106

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

If you're from a place like Malta it's basically the only way to do IT and perhaps "escape" it later.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#107

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

And there is a kid’s legal version! They sell them in Walmart - Pokémon packs. I don’t know how any of this is legal in a civilized country.

Kids version has been around my entire life (baseball cards) it even used to come with bubblegum!

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#108
Hardcore gamblers' tendency to lash out at athletes, when bets go wrong, can get really scary. This is Point No. 2 in Thompson's analysis -- and it deserves a closer look. From what I've seen, the level of threats, abuse, etc. is just horrifying. The 30x increase in money bet, sadly, seems to be translating into a 30x increase in betters' hostile conduct.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#109

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired

As in, even a dev, HR, etc person having worked for an online gambling company? I feel this may be a slippery slope..

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#110
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone would need to take the opposite side of that bet. And who would do that knowing someone might try to assassinate him in order to win that bet?

In this scenario, that would be the people paying for the assassination. The people who want it to happen bet that it won't. The people who want to do it bet that it will. The net result is that if one of the people who bet on it happening makes it happen, they are being paid by the people betting against it, in a plausibly deniable way. A country leader seeing someone suddenly take out a $50 million position on them…

What's even more interesting is when you consider that A) it doesn't have to be one person taking out a large position, it can be multiple people, over time, and B) the assassin doesn't have to be known or confirmed ahead of time, if someone decides their "reserve price" has been met, all they have to do to receive a payout is place the appropriate bet before performing the act.

The end result is a combination of Kickstarter and Doordash for targeted homicide.

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