Miscellanea: The War in Iran • Hacker News Board

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#231

Post by pydry » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

RugnirViking wrote: post #227

pydry wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you listen to the director of counterterrorism explain what happened in the run up to him resigning it fits pretty well the theory that Trump is compromised (possibly with kompromat) by a certain Middle Eastern country.

do you have a link?

Look for the Tucker Carlson interview with Joe Kent.

(Tucker Carlson is weirdly intelligent and thoughtful in that interview in a way i did not expect, but Joe said the most eye opening stuff... I have a lot of respect for him)

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#232

Post by sysguest » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

redwood wrote: post #211

khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

Everyone knew the Iranians would close the strait and that it would take time to re-open it. That was the price the administration was willing to pay. Put differently, the regime's traditional deterrence did not work against this administration. You seem to think the administration would not have done this thing with what we know now. What makes you think that?

yeah I did expect US to know all those things...

but what I did NOT expect, is how Iran regime would choose strategically suicidal options just to "feel good"

missile-rambo even on non-combatant countries? that'll trigger self-defense attacks...

$2M per voyage? woah... the stait-users don't have a choice, but "make an example out of" iran...

I mean, iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and focus), and bring that "missle interception rate" down to 40%.

Now what did iran gain from shooting everyone? making more enemies, and showing your weaknesses (96% missile interception rate, even from UAE? wtf...)

don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying Trump was right on starting the war. I actually think what the fk was he thinking back then...

I'm just saying even if you're angry and desperate, there are wise choices and dumb choices

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#233

Post by SubiculumCode » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:02 PM UTC

This kind of amateur analysis is not worth being front page of HN. Its not that it doesn't make a few good points, but overall, it just isn't high grade strategic analysis because it lacks a lot of information by the post's own admission.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#234

Post by ozgrakkurt » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:03 PM UTC

solatic wrote: post #128

Author seems to not care about the prospect of the Iranian regime developing nuclear weapons, putting those weapons into the hands of its terrorist proxies, and sitting back while those proxies turn Western Europe and Palestine into radioactive wastelands (yes, Palestine, because it is not possible to restrict the fallout to just Tel Aviv, and the regime has shown itself to be far more anti-Israel than pro-Palestinia…

What makes you think they will give nuclear weapons to terrorists or use those weapons at all?

This does not happen even in the most insane examples like North Korea.

The more likely outcome would be that they would be able to avoid getting their schools/hospitals etc. bombed.

In your mind US should just nuke iran so there is regime change? Can you calculate how this would play out after that happens?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#235

Post by abraxas » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:07 PM UTC

khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

You elect clowns, you get a circus.

The US has turned into a Wall-e society just getting off on entertainment and bored with civilized, thoughtful politicians. This is the end result of TOO MUCH prosperity for the average American.

They haven't experienced true hardship in generations and we (the rest of the world) is paying the price of their hubris.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#236

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #212

pphysch wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a ring of incompetent yes men, but behind those yes men is a nefarious foreign influence operation. These guys didn't arrive at their bad decisions by accident.

When you listen to the director of counterterrorism explain what happened in the run up to him resigning it fits pretty well the theory that Trump is compromised (possibly with kompromat) by a certain Middle Eastern country.

[deleted]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#237

Post by y-c-o-m-b » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC

yanhangyhy wrote: post #7

The reason for the Iran war is very simple: Israel’s instigation, a potential strike against China, and Trump’s political immaturity.

> a potential strike against China

I think this is understated in every analysis I've seen. I would bet good money this was part of the main selling point for the US. Just type in "China Oil" into any search engine or even filter the search to 2023 and earlier. China's oil consumption was surging significantly and they get a huge chunk of their oil through the Strait. It wasn't until 2024 I believe that they started reducing their dependence on oil; which I think suggests that they saw the writing on the wall and were worried about this exact scenario. China is America's number one adversary. If we're making large global moves, there's a high chance it's a strategic move against China.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#238

Post by foobarian » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:09 PM UTC

redwood wrote: post #219

The biggest beneficiary of this whole thing will be the shift to renewable energy. I am surprised to see the greens up in arms about it all.

I was just thinking how much this situation benefits China and their solar power industry.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#239

Post by sysguest » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC

zinodaur wrote: post #226

sysguest wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well I guess that makes Iran really fked up... the strait-using countries are surely going to "make a lesson out of" iran exactly for that reason

I think what we should have learned from this is that it's extremely hard to "make a lesson out of" Iran if you depend on moving oil past their borders... the gulf states are much more exposed to this than the US is, and much less powerful. They are also not neutral - they have been paying in to the US protection racket, and are discovering that their payments haven't bought much.

> it's extremely hard to "make a lesson out of" Iran if you depend on moving oil past their borders

it's not just gulf states -- look at who are the customers of those gulf states are. the whole asia, europe, and america -- the whole world is their customer.

Even if it's "extremely hard", those countries have no choice but "make a lesson out of" iran -- just like what we did with pirates

why would those "customers of gulf" just leave iran? after US leaves, will iran regime suddenly become nice and stop forcing that $2M-per-voyage bill?

no, and even if iran regime promises "I'll never bill those ships", how could you trust on that promise? the only way to ensure free-ship-passing would be obliterating Iran as an example, even if US backs away.

> They are also not neutral - they have been paying in to the US protection racket

hmm so were they "helping" US bomb iran? "being neutral" means it didn't participate on attacking iran, not whether it paid or not.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#240

Post by znnajdla » Wed, Mar 25, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC

No one seems to discuss the worst case scenario for this war. In the best/average case the world takes an economic hit. But I can think of one really big black swan event which no one seems to even consider (except Nassim Taleb). This war could trigger regime collapses all over the Arab world and put populist leaders in charge who rise to power on the basis of Gaza genocide fury. That would be catastrophic to Israel: they could face Iran from the air and Arab ground forces from multiple directions. In fact there are already signs that Egypt is moving towards that, troops are moving in to the Sinai. There is a real chance that Israel could cease to exist.