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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#221

Post by ahmadyan »

citrin_ru wrote: post #206
johnohara wrote: post #72

The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The most important aspect of the "toll" is that Iran prefers payment in yuan, not dollars. If Iran succeeds in nationalizing the Straight and is successful in enforcing the toll, it represents a very serious threat to the dominance of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency for trading energy.

> The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The straight is not physically closed by Iran. It's closed by insurance companies which asking a very high war risk insurance premiums. Even if you pay $2M it unlikely will reduce the cost of insurance. That's why very few ships are choosing this option (and some of them are shadow fleet tankers whic…

well, you can view it Iranian are willing to insure the vessel for $2M fee - that it will not get hit by them during the crossing ;). Once they are in the Oman sea, they can use traditional insurance.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#222

Post by erezsh »

redwood wrote: post #210
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

I see a lot of people throw this "no revolution" perspective around when everyone involved has been very clear to the Iranian people: that this is the time to stay safe and inside. People rising up will take time, and will be highly unpredictable. No one said otherwise. You imply "analysts already had this all identified" yet you are putting forward a supposition here that's just wildly unrealistic.

Seriously, all these armchair "experts" are missing very obvious truths -

1) Every authority figure is telling the Iranian people to stay inside and wait.

2) Revolutions don't happen overnight, the same way that businesses don't succeed overnight, even though from far away it might seem that way.

3) Official Israeli statements estimate it could take up to a year after the war is over for a successful overthrow, even if everything is going according to plan.

The truth is there's a lot of people who want this war to fail, because it will align with their political convictions and hopes.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#223

Post by ozgrakkurt »

usrbinbash wrote: post #178
sysguest wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what will happen due to iran's dickhead move... Being bombed does not mean it can target non-combatant countries without consequences... Nor does it mean it can start tolling ships $2M per voyages... Now that current iran regime has learnt it can do those things... what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have? Form a coalition against iran, and send troops to chan…

> iran's dickhead move... Remind me again, which country started this whole mess? > what choice do the gulf nations, or even all the asian+european (strait users) nations have? They can go "yeah, you know, the US has been less than reliable as an ally recently, what with absurd tariffs, saber rattling around greenland, belitteling NATO, etc., and they seem unwilling to change, so we're just gonna pay the piper, and g…

Don't think there is much of a point replying to this person seriously as he is obviously a troll. You can take half a minute to check his profile

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#225

Post by ozgrakkurt »

eigenspace wrote: post #213
dsign wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t say that. Trump is very inconsistent and a consummated liar, so plenty of people didn’t believe on his promises to deliver fascism. And plenty of people did believe on his promise to end wars. /s Whether your little black heart wishes concentration camps or you’re just hoping your paycheck goes a bit further, voting for a con man is a terrible idea.

You write "/s" but that's unironically the logic a lot of these idiot enablers use. "Oh he's just trolling", "it's a negotiation tactic, didn't you read his book?", "chill out, it's just a joke", "but what about OBAMA!?"

I mean it can't be worse than Biden right? RIGHT?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#226

Post by zinodaur »

sysguest wrote: post #199
klipt wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> now.. with that $2M toll, iran just learnt it can just toll the ships... But the strait has two sides and Iran only controls one side. The UAE/Oman on the other side could equally threaten to attack Iranian ships unless Iran pays them a toll.

well I guess that makes Iran really fked up... the strait-using countries are surely going to "make a lesson out of" iran exactly for that reason

I think what we should have learned from this is that it's extremely hard to "make a lesson out of" Iran if you depend on moving oil past their borders... the gulf states are much more exposed to this than the US is, and much less powerful.

They are also not neutral - they have been paying in to the US protection racket, and are discovering that their payments haven't bought much.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#227

Post by RugnirViking »

pydry wrote: post #212
pphysch wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a ring of incompetent yes men, but behind those yes men is a nefarious foreign influence operation. These guys didn't arrive at their bad decisions by accident.

When you listen to the director of counterterrorism explain what happened in the run up to him resigning it fits pretty well the theory that Trump is compromised (possibly with kompromat) by a certain Middle Eastern country.

do you have a link?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#228

Post by redwood »

ses1984 wrote: post #217
redwood wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a lot of people throw this "no revolution" perspective around when everyone involved has been very clear to the Iranian people: that this is the time to stay safe and inside. People rising up will take time, and will be highly unpredictable. No one said otherwise. You imply "analysts already had this all identified" yet you are putting forward a supposition here that's just wildly unrealistic.

Donald trump addressed the Iranian people in a video message and told them to rise up when the war began.

That was in January

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#229

Post by GolfPopper »

niemandhier wrote: post #187

A war continuous until one side has caused the other more suffering than it can take. When dealing with the Middle East we keep underestimating the amount of hardship the people I these countries can endure or be forced to endure.

"Qui vincit non est victor nisi victus fatetur" -Ennius, Annales, XXXI

Translation: "The victor is not victorious if the vanquished does not consider himself so”

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#230

Post by ozgrakkurt »

avereveard wrote: post #65
decimalenough wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the article discusses in detail, if the US actually cares about freedom of navigation, the war was a massive own goal because it looks extremely likely to grant the current Iranian regime de facto control of the Strait.

Iran already had the strait in ransom, directly and indirectly with proxy receiving weapons. You don't get to ignore that part and call this a own goal, since inaction led to the same effective results.

Same effective results as in it was causing constant global inflation and instability?
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