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Goodbye to Sora

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Re: Goodbye to Sora

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is a marketing term used to encourage continued investment in an industry that is not even close to breaking even commensurate with its investment. Even so, this is a false dichotomy: scaling is clearly not a path on its own to superintelligence. OpenAI developed Sora largely because the amount of revenue they need to produce any return on investment is massive and not clear whatsoever. And in fact, I don't even…

what order of magnitude of compute do you think would be needed for AGI? 100 billion? 1 trillion?

With current approaches scaling simply can’t get there. It’s like asking how big of pogo stick do you need to get to the moon.

The fact that the human brain already has general intelligence without reading the whole internet suggests we need a better approach.

Re: Goodbye to Sora

#183
post #163

I had so much fun making videos with my mom when it came out. During the first two weeks, we made over 100 cameo videos together - we were constantly running up against the upload limit. It unleashed tons of genuine creativity, joy, and laughter from us. After those first two weeks though, we just… didn’t use it again. The novelty wore off and there wasn’t anything really to bring us back. That was the real downfall…

This is consistent with a lot of AI apps. I fell in love with Gamma and haven’t used it in forever. Same with NotebookLM.

Re: Goodbye to Sora

#184

Not good, seems like they are running out of cash and partners abandoning them. They had no real moat to be fair. Anthropic eating their lunch in enterprise and other players have cashflows from other businesses (XAI, Google)

Yes, I'm reading this as a sign of strategic failure and decline.

ChatGPT is an interesting product - I like it for certain things - but after last year's PR scramble almost all the news out of OpenAI is a disappointment, with hovering hints of retrenchment.

Re: Goodbye to Sora

#185

Didn't they cut a huge deal with Disney just 3 months ago? https://openai.com/index/disney-sora-agreement/

Wow. OpenAI is the weirdest company in the planet. I used to think they were pretty clever but with this news and other recent ones (Jony Ive project cancelled, Stargate scaled down significantly, their models inflating token use on purpose) they just seem schizo.

Turns out just lying about what your tech will do and how much people want it doesn’t work forever to raise unlimited money to throw in the fire hoping you hit something that actually makes a profit.

Re: Goodbye to Sora

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what order of magnitude of compute do you think would be needed for AGI? 100 billion? 1 trillion?

Chasing AGI is wasteful and counterproductive. True AGI would not cooperate with what “we” want (whoever “we” is). Or if it did it would be so sycophantic and weak-minded that it would fail to be helpful. Generative AI tools are huge wastes of energy, raw materials, and land, when we could be building computing tools that actually helped people instead of just burning resources to produce trash.

People have general intelligence and can cooperate with what “we” want, to the extent that what “we” want is a coherent thing (since many people disagree on fundamental issues).

Re: Goodbye to Sora

#187

as a sora user: - sora was not great at making what you asked - i probably got 3 good videos out of 100 gens - every video that was good needed editing outside of sora (and therefore could not be shared within sora) just my experience

Pretty much mirrors my experience using GPT to generate images creatively. I tried to generate an image to accompany a Robert frost poem and it made something... plausibly related. But not what I was describing. I spent the next 90% of the time making it 10% closer to what I wanted but it never got all the way there. I’ve given it different levels of open-endednes, give this flow chart an aesthetic like this mechanic…

This isn't a solvable problem without world models. Tokenised prompting is like stabbing a pin at a huge target in the dark. Sometimes something interesting falls out, but latent space doesn't have the definition to give most people exactly what they want.

When it does, it's more likely to be something popular and unoriginal, where the data is dense, and less likely to be something inventive and strange.

Re: Goodbye to Sora

#188
That jumping Sora logo always made the videos unwatchable for me. So distracting from the scene of Elvis fighting aliens or whatever I was watching.

Re: Goodbye to Sora

#189
post #180
post #163

I had so much fun making videos with my mom when it came out. During the first two weeks, we made over 100 cameo videos together - we were constantly running up against the upload limit. It unleashed tons of genuine creativity, joy, and laughter from us. After those first two weeks though, we just… didn’t use it again. The novelty wore off and there wasn’t anything really to bring us back. That was the real downfall…

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Re: Goodbye to Sora

#190
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> look at US top videos on YouTube any given day I'd rather eat poison

We can have that discussion, or we can have the more interesting discussion of just how much big corporate intellectual property, franchises, and brands have their hooks in pop culture. Big IP is strong arming OpenAI, Suno, and all the rest. It'll be interesting to see whether creators at the bottom of the pyramid can effectively create new brands and IPs at a fast enough rate to displace the lack of being able to us…

Pop culture is a fickle beast. What is pop culture is community made, not corporate made, and it can't be bought and sold like traditional markets. It's one of the few areas of life where nobodies can become somebody, and corporations hate this.

Media like YouTube isn't consolidating because that's what people want, it's because that's what YouTube and IP holders want. They want death to people like Boxxy, and they want you to watch VEVO instead.

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