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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#791

Post by [deleted] »

stefan_ wrote: post #601
senderista wrote: post #587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you're being downvoted, you're absolutely correct. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/russia-ukraine-war-isw/

They are being downvoted because Nuland is an utterly insignificant diplomat, but serves well as a dog whistle for people who subscribe to the belief that the Maidan revolution in Ukraine was really some Obama organized coup. This is a story peddled by the Russian government, which of course is where Yanukovych promptly fled after having protestors shot. At the same time Russia was busy staging troops and material fo…

[deleted]

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#792

Post by tyg13 »

lordnacho wrote: post #758
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

Banning it sends it underground into the hands of organised crime, which will still have access to modern technology. There's going to be a net loss, but it's probably better to regulate it than have another war on drugs.

This is only true if people's want for it exceeds their want to not break the law.

For illegal drugs, people who want them want them a lot, so them being illegal isn't a strong deterrent; although, legalization has still absolutely increased the number of users (i.e. legality was acting as an effective deterrent for some.)

For illegal gambling, sure _some_ people won't be deterred by legality, but most people aren't hardcore gambling addicts; they're just engaging as a form of "harmless fun." They're not looking to go to jail to toss $20 on a sports game.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#793

Post by afthonos »

lordnacho wrote: post #758
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

Banning it sends it underground into the hands of organised crime, which will still have access to modern technology. There's going to be a net loss, but it's probably better to regulate it than have another war on drugs.

As someone who at first embraced the idea of prediction markets and is now ambivalent, sending them underground vastly reduces their harm. First, because discoverability is an issue. Second, there will be much less liquidity. Third, any gains will have to be laundered or hidden, making it even more difficult.

Maybe prediction markets are net positives, or maybe regulating them will make them so, but banning them does resolve most of their negative effects.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#794

Post by null_deref »

keeda wrote: post #432

Conspiracy theory: the missile hit an unpopulated area. Would it have been possible for someone in charge of intercepting incoming missiles to have been in on this bet? I know these things are automated, because human control would be too slow... but I wonder if there's an angle here. Won't be the first time someone on the inside made money on classified Israeli plans: https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-indicted-for-u…

Not a conspiracy theory, IDF official policy is to not use interceptors when the missile is confirmed by calculations to hit unpopulated areas. (This calculation does not work for every type of missile or on every occasion)

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#795

Post by dragonwriter »

ihaveajob wrote: post #781
aerhardt wrote: post #702

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Par for the course for many who mention Adam Smith. Another classic libel is bringing up his name in cases of gross misconduct by a business or a businessman, but he was very critical of the excesses of merchants. Smith was a moral philosopher first and an accidental economist second.

Yes! As a beginner-level, amateur armchair economist who hated philosophy class in high school, I have to admit I was surprised to learn about this when reading https://store.abramsbooks.com/products/economix by Michael Goodwin. The book overall seems to lean liberal whenever there's a political choice to be made, and yet it paints Adam Smith in a much more positive light that one would imagine, if all you've learned…

> if all you've learned about him is the criticism of today's political left.

Leftists I've known are more likely to quote Smith than criticize him. He seems to be seen by leftists as an important figure in political economy (flawed in not reaching certain important questions, perhaps, but not much in how he addressed those questions he did consider.) Even his argument that the class whose understanding of their own interests is best aligned with the common interests is the landed aristocracy (the bourgeoisie having interests opposed to the common interest, while the working class shares—by its sheer size, defines—the common interests but lacks an understanding of what their real interests are in the domain of interest) [0] is seen as describing exactly a problem than the Left (see, e.g., Marx and discussions of class consciousness) sees as central to solve, rather than being a regressive idealized preference.

The Left criticizes a lot of the arguments people who appeal to a mythologized caricature of Smith use his name to defend, sure, but that's a different thing than criticizing Smith.

[0] Which is about as far as you can be from leaning liberal where there is a political choice to be made, though given the complete displacement of the landed aristocracy as an economically-meaningful distinct class it is largely irrelevant in practical terms in the 21st century.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#796

Post by holmesworcester »

margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

If it becomes commonplace for existing prediction markets to get undermined by this kind of manipulation, won't that just be an opportunity for people to create better prediction markets that are less vulnerable to manipulation?

And doesn't that just mean more resources and energy is going into solving the problem of determining the truth of past events (and, as a result given that these are prediction markets, the likelihood of future ones?)

And isn't that a good thing?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#797

Post by margalabargala »

saalweachter wrote: post #776
margalabargala wrote: post #719

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly don't know what your point is. The best I can come up with is: "The whole point of sports (in my opinion) is X good thing therefore betting on sports is more acceptable" Making bets on good things doesn't make the betting better. Just because Polymarket would allow you to bet money that the infant homicide rate goes down next year, doesn't mean it's a good thing to allow betting on.

... if I post a multi-paragraph long reply on the incentives created by betting on less infant homicide, am I going to find out that you understand perfectly well what the incentives are, and that was the entire point of your comment?

The actions people have taken in accordance with sports betting incentives is everything up to and including murder. The moral ideal the parent commenter associates with sports doesn't make that okay.

If you have a point to make about how the age of the person being murdered means it's a categorical difference rather than a difference of degree I'll read it.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#798

Post by notepad0x90 »

blacksmith_tb wrote: post #684
notepad0x90 wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On one hand, it isn't all that different than derivatives and other established securities. On the other, the extremes of gambling are deterimental. You can either take the libertarian view that it should be allowed until someone is put in harms way, or take the prohibitionist view that it should all be illegal. With the latter approach, you will be doing more harm than good potentially, because it will just become a…

Let me make an obvious opposing argument: what is the social benefit in allowing people to gamble on the outcome of a sports match, or any other event? We encourage investment in the market in theory to allow companies to grow and produce things many people might benefit from (how well that works is another thing...). Gambling as far as I can see is net negative to everyone but the winners, and not entirely positive…

You're asking the wrong question, in a free society (supposedly) people are allowed to do whatever they want by default. They're not perimtted to do things, they're forbidden from doing specific things.

Is gambling a neg-negative? why do you care? how is that relevant? Things shouldn't be forbidden because of net impact, specific harm needs to be outlined and addressed. Most of the time, there are more specific problematic behaviors that should be legislated against, not gambling.

In your example, that person spending their rent money could maybe addressed by the law? Or if someone spends their family's savings on a bet, that specific behavior can be addressed. If you think about it, this lazy approach doesn't address root causes. Maybe that guy's rent money, or family's savings, he could have blown it on a fancy car, no law against that.

Conversely, what if someone bet all their money on a stock option? People kill themselves over this, but it isn't illegal. you see how the entire approach is crooked and lazy? categorizing "gambling" addresses the reactionary emotions of the crowd, it doesn't address root causes, it doesn't evaluate nuanced situations.

It isn't betting or speculating that is the problem.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#799

Post by gzread »

holmesworcester wrote: post #796
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

If it becomes commonplace for existing prediction markets to get undermined by this kind of manipulation, won't that just be an opportunity for people to create better prediction markets that are less vulnerable to manipulation? And doesn't that just mean more resources and energy is going into solving the problem of determining the truth of past events (and, as a result given that these are prediction markets, the l…

If those prediction markets are patronised by people who want to manipulate it, what drives customers to the new ones?

Making it less vulnerable to manipulation would entail exposing less information too. You probably wouldn't be allowed to know the current odds, which makes gambling the same as reading tea leaves.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#800

Post by WillPostForFood »

waffletower wrote: post #720
WillPostForFood wrote: post #636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wild misunderstanding of Smith. He considered it a moral defect, wrote several pieces criticizing gambling, and criticized state run gambling. "The over-weening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities, is an ancient evil... their absurd presumption in their own good fortune, is even more universal."

I do take Adam Smith out of context, that is the precise point -- the invisible hand of self-interest is the salient idea that has endured and shaped modern Hypercapitalism. It doesn't matter if he is rolling in his grave at audio frequencies due to my and, more importantly, society's alleged misappropriation of his work and misunderstanding of his many moral considerations. He was effectively soundbited centuries ag…

Maybe you have a valid point here, but by intentionally taking him out of context, it perpetuates the misunderstanding. We'd be better off actually understanding Smith, reading Smith, and grappling with limitations of the invisible hand. Otherwise it is just an exercise in nihilism and blowing everything up.
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