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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#711

Post by scoofy »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #693
scoofy wrote: post #575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, it's not the point your making, but Adam Smith was not a laissez-faire capitalist. If you want to do the "capitalism bad" thing, I would suggest learning a bit of history, or at least understand that the " laissez-faire " in laissez-faire capitalism is a political ideology, not an economic ideology. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/11/the-gu... More to your point... I don't think economic theo…

Small nit but you probably don't mean to say that you are a "capitalist" here, even if you maybe own some significant capital. Not because its wrong, but it's not what your trying to appeal to (ideological commitment). A "capitalist" can believe in anything really, they are such by virtue of their relation to the overall economy. Its kinda like saying "I'm a digestor of food" instead of "a patron of restaurants." You…

I'm a "capitalist" in the sense that I think markets that allow people to exchange private capital create the better outcomes for society for society than other types of economic systems.

I'm also a "liberal."

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#712

Post by scoofy »

Invictus0 wrote: post #700
scoofy wrote: post #589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity. Just call it gambling. They aren't "prediction markets," they're just gambling. Gambling incentivizes the absolute worst in humanity.

That's fundamentally wrong

>That's fundamentally wrong

If you have an argument, please share it. If you don't, please don't waste everyone's time.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#713

Post by zymhan »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #636
waffletower wrote: post #552

[flagged]

Wild misunderstanding of Smith. He considered it a moral defect, wrote several pieces criticizing gambling, and criticized state run gambling. "The over-weening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities, is an ancient evil... their absurd presumption in their own good fortune, is even more universal."

There are far better examples they could use.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#714

Post by infinitewars »

zymhan wrote: post #713
WillPostForFood wrote: post #636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wild misunderstanding of Smith. He considered it a moral defect, wrote several pieces criticizing gambling, and criticized state run gambling. "The over-weening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities, is an ancient evil... their absurd presumption in their own good fortune, is even more universal."

There are far better examples they could use.

[flagged]

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#715

Post by arduanika »

kqr wrote: post #653

Many of the comments in this discussion remind me of that Rothchild analysis in the second half of the 1800s when France had problems with a revolution. > A friend asked Baron Rothschild what he was doing in response to Paris Commune: > “Why,” replied the famous banker musingly, “French government bonds are selling at sixty-five. I bought five millions yesterday.” > “What!” exclaimed the friend. “Bought bonds? Why, F…

Surely you can see the difference between dealing in a legitimate asset like a government bond, which requires a market of buyers and sellers, versus this new extraneous layer of prediction contracts, where the only defensible economic purpose is some weak information signal.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#716

Post by BurningFrog »

blacksmith_tb wrote: post #684
notepad0x90 wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On one hand, it isn't all that different than derivatives and other established securities. On the other, the extremes of gambling are deterimental. You can either take the libertarian view that it should be allowed until someone is put in harms way, or take the prohibitionist view that it should all be illegal. With the latter approach, you will be doing more harm than good potentially, because it will just become a…

Let me make an obvious opposing argument: what is the social benefit in allowing people to gamble on the outcome of a sports match, or any other event? We encourage investment in the market in theory to allow companies to grow and produce things many people might benefit from (how well that works is another thing...). Gambling as far as I can see is net negative to everyone but the winners, and not entirely positive…

One major utility of prediction markets is to get good estimates of probabilities of future events.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#717

Post by [deleted] »

margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

[deleted]

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#718

Post by arduanika »

dangus wrote: post #204
hersko wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need a break from the internet.

Excellent job criticizing the content of my comment. I see you’ve decided to use the strategy of an ad hominem attack. This is a really great classic one! I applaud your efforts. Since it’s too hard to refute the substance of my comment you can just point out how I’m some crazy person. If you’re open to it I invite you to pick just one point I made and see if you can find some kind of logical flaw in my reasoning.

Can you name anything about this news story that couldn't have happened in a non-Israeli context? Or does the Israel angle just draw you in like a moth to a flame, until it's the only word in the whole article you can really read?

And to GP's point: Can you point to one paragraph in your original post that does not cry out that you need to log off? I sure can't.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#719

Post by margalabargala »

bnlxbnlx wrote: post #685
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

> there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. not fundamentally different as in "live or die" you mean? the whole point of sports is that you compete whilst appreciating each others' humanity.

I honestly don't know what your point is. The best I can come up with is:

"The whole point of sports (in my opinion) is X good thing therefore betting on sports is more acceptable"

Making bets on good things doesn't make the betting better. Just because Polymarket would allow you to bet money that the infant homicide rate goes down next year, doesn't mean it's a good thing to allow betting on.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#720

Post by waffletower »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #636
waffletower wrote: post #552

[flagged]

Wild misunderstanding of Smith. He considered it a moral defect, wrote several pieces criticizing gambling, and criticized state run gambling. "The over-weening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities, is an ancient evil... their absurd presumption in their own good fortune, is even more universal."

I do take Adam Smith out of context, that is the precise point -- the invisible hand of self-interest is the salient idea that has endured and shaped modern Hypercapitalism. It doesn't matter if he is rolling in his grave at audio frequencies due to my and, more importantly, society's alleged misappropriation of his work and misunderstanding of his many moral considerations. He was effectively soundbited centuries ago and we are still struggling to manage the implications. Saying he was a good guy makes it more difficult to fix the problem.
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