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US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

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Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#11

Post by FrustratedMonky »

reliabilityguy wrote: post #3
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #2

The US Ponzi scheme coming to an end. It works great while everything is going up. 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. There were lots of problematic structural elements that were fine if nobody looked close. Oil was just the sideway hit on the building to knock it over. Just takes a nudge to collapse. And here we go again.

> 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. Not by the subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse?

That was the structural problem.

But it was swept under the rug, it was hidden by market constantly going up.

Ponzi schemes can hide in a market going up, because nobody is trying to pull money back out.

Suddenly everyone wanting their money, and the shortfall suddenly become apparent.

Oil prices suddenly made everyone try to pull money out, and 'woops there is nothing here'.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#14

Post by JumpCrisscross »

floatrock wrote: post #8
reliabilityguy wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. Not by the subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse?

I thought it was by the layers upon layers of interconnected unregulated derivatives valued at a few orders of magnitude above the underlying subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse.

> it was by the layers upon layers of interconnected unregulated derivatives valued at a few orders of magnitude above the underlying subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse

It was interconnected derivatives and structured products linked to banks that caused a liquidity crisis in the former to cause a crisis of confidence in the latter.

Meanwhile: "In the letter, Morgan Stanley said the fund wasn’t designed to offer full liquidity because of the nature of its investments, and that credit fundamentals across the underlying portfolio have been broadly stable. The bank's shares fell 2% in premarket trading Thursday" [1].

[1] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-5...

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#15

Post by flammafex »

Stop paying rent. Stop going to work. Pirate everything. No constitution. No copyright. Starve the beast.

Don't let anyone who bought into this way of life get away with robbing the rest of us.

And don't let anyone who brought children into this cruelty hear the end of it: what they did was evil.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#16

Post by jacquesm »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #2

The US Ponzi scheme coming to an end. It works great while everything is going up. 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. There were lots of problematic structural elements that were fine if nobody looked close. Oil was just the sideway hit on the building to knock it over. Just takes a nudge to collapse. And here we go again.

This time it took ~35 blows with a sledgehammer. You have to be impressed with the degree of resilience here, even a chaos monkey like Trump has a hard time completely destroying the US economy even when all checks & balances utterly fail.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#17

Post by FrustratedMonky »

floatrock wrote: post #8
reliabilityguy wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. Not by the subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse?

I thought it was by the layers upon layers of interconnected unregulated derivatives valued at a few orders of magnitude above the underlying subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse.

That was the structural problem. Definitely bad. A weak economy propped up by some 'fake' money.

Oil was more of the outside force that put a shock to that weak system.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#18

Post by floatrock »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #11
reliabilityguy wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. Not by the subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse?

That was the structural problem. But it was swept under the rug, it was hidden by market constantly going up. Ponzi schemes can hide in a market going up, because nobody is trying to pull money back out. Suddenly everyone wanting their money, and the shortfall suddenly become apparent. Oil prices suddenly made everyone try to pull money out, and 'woops there is nothing here'.

I did make a snarky derivatives comment elsewhere in the thread, but I do see you're not wrong about oil prices peaking at $138 in June 2008 (Lehman collapsed in September 2008): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#19

Post by hnthrow0287345 »

People have cried wolf or been wrong about incoming crashes and bubble pops so many times that this signal -- whether it's a good signal or not -- simply won't change anything I do.

I'm sure someone somewhere could make a trade off of this article and this signal is definitely for them.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#20

Post by fabian2k »

jacquesm wrote: post #16
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #2

The US Ponzi scheme coming to an end. It works great while everything is going up. 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. There were lots of problematic structural elements that were fine if nobody looked close. Oil was just the sideway hit on the building to knock it over. Just takes a nudge to collapse. And here we go again.

This time it took ~35 blows with a sledgehammer. You have to be impressed with the degree of resilience here, even a chaos monkey like Trump has a hard time completely destroying the US economy even when all checks & balances utterly fail.

It feels a bit like in a Road Runner cartoon. We already ran well past the cliff, just haven't noticed yet that we should be falling down.
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