US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
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Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#2The US Ponzi scheme coming to an end. It works great while everything is going up.
2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. There were lots of problematic structural elements that were fine if nobody looked close. Oil was just the sideway hit on the building to knock it over.
Just takes a nudge to collapse. And here we go again.
Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#3The US Ponzi scheme coming to an end. It works great while everything is going up. 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. There were lots of problematic structural elements that were fine if nobody looked close. Oil was just the sideway hit on the building to knock it over. Just takes a nudge to collapse. And here we go again.
> 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices.
Not by the subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse?
Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#4 "Most of the private credit loans were floating rate and tied to the federal funds rate, which has persisted at a high level over the past three years. Fitch pointed to this as a catalyst for last year's defaults."
I guess it is fair to say the federal funds rate has persisted at a high level over the past three years now isn't it?
https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c...
Also interesting to note, "Fitch recorded NO defaults in the software sector last year. The rating agency noted it categorizes software issuers into their main target market sectors when applicable."
Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#5Private credit is cracking and lending standards are tightening behind the scenes. If you’re not building cash reserves right now you’re going to wish you had. The distressed opportunities ahead go to whoever kept dry powder while everyone else was chasing growth.
If your business is light on free cash flow (ie everyone in AI at the moment) buckle up as there are storm clouds ahead. If you’re running a business that relies on external cash (VCs, loans/bonds, etc) to keep things going things will get very ugly.
Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#6The US Ponzi scheme coming to an end. It works great while everything is going up. 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. There were lots of problematic structural elements that were fine if nobody looked close. Oil was just the sideway hit on the building to knock it over. Just takes a nudge to collapse. And here we go again.
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Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#7The US Ponzi scheme coming to an end. It works great while everything is going up. 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. There were lots of problematic structural elements that were fine if nobody looked close. Oil was just the sideway hit on the building to knock it over. Just takes a nudge to collapse. And here we go again.
> 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. Not by the subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse?
Now the subprime credit of entire cities is being sold bank to bank. I'd argue that's a direct escalation of the 2008 credit crisis.
Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#8The US Ponzi scheme coming to an end. It works great while everything is going up. 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. There were lots of problematic structural elements that were fine if nobody looked close. Oil was just the sideway hit on the building to knock it over. Just takes a nudge to collapse. And here we go again.
> 2008 Financial Crisis was triggered by Oil prices. Not by the subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse?
I thought it was by the layers upon layers of interconnected unregulated derivatives valued at a few orders of magnitude above the underlying subprime mortgages given to anyone with a pulse.
Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#9Private credit is cracking and lending standards are tightening behind the scenes. If you’re not building cash reserves right now you’re going to wish you had. The distressed opportunities ahead go to whoever kept dry powder while everyone else was chasing growth. If your business is light on free cash flow (ie everyone in AI at the moment) buckle up as there are storm clouds ahead. If you’re running a business that…
Well it only took 5 years of destroying responsible savers with every policy imaginable to make sure they get crushed by those who availed themselves of the negative real rate loan inflation machine. How many people are left remaining that were dumb enough to take that strategy and are still standing? If you were operating on a cash basis for the last 5 years you were mostly wiped out by people leveraged to the 9s on debts and meanwhile your buying power was erased.
Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
#10Private credit is cracking and lending standards are tightening behind the scenes. If you’re not building cash reserves right now you’re going to wish you had. The distressed opportunities ahead go to whoever kept dry powder while everyone else was chasing growth. If your business is light on free cash flow (ie everyone in AI at the moment) buckle up as there are storm clouds ahead. If you’re running a business that…
> If you’re running a business that relies on external cash (VCs, loans/bonds, etc) to keep things going things will get very ugly.
Honestly thrilled to hear it. The AI bubble needs to burst so we can find out what's actually useful, start requiring real business models again, and get rid of all the noise and waste.