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AI doesn't replace white collar work

marble.onl

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Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#71

Post by est31 »

ibejoeb wrote: post #68
est31 wrote: post #55

From my opinion, the block layoffs were a test, to see how a) a software company manages with only half of its employees now that there's powerful LLMs, and b) how the remaining employees react to the imminent threat of them being laid off as well. If block succeeds, we'll see more layoffs of that kind, probably even more extreme ones. You are not top senior level employee? Out. You don't single handedly cause 30% of…

> single person billion dollar exits Single person, or single founder? I guess there's n0tch, but he hired people when he started making money. (There may very well be truly solo cases that I don't know about.) A few others have commented that the job becomes a kind of hybrid. I already think of it like that. If you're a person who can talk to a client and then immediately implement something to solve a problem, that…

That billion dollar figure is being thrown around for Steinberger's exit to OpenAI, but I couldn't find any reputable source claiming it. It might be a wrong number, idk.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#72

Post by Flavius »

AI won’t replace all white collar work. Just like the tractor didn't replace all farmers, only about 98% of them. The real question is: what's next? When farming automated, those workers eventually filled our factories and offices. When the offices automate, where do they go? Back to farming?

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#73

Post by 10xDev »

bediger4000 wrote: post #70
10xDev wrote: post #31

The next revolution is coming and it is well needed. Society is becoming older, more tired and we need new fresh ideas to bring a lot of fields back to life. I hope it comes soon.

I don't disagree that society is becoming older and more tired, but LLMs by definition don't bring fresh ideas. The best you could hope for is that the tokenizing brings forward similarities between fields that haven't been recognized before.

It seems to already be helping with open problems: https://www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu/~knuth/papers/claude-cyc...

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#75

Post by keiferski »

ctoth wrote: post #64
keiferski wrote: post #52

I don’t think people actually read the article; because it makes a unique point about certain types of queries: I would have been interested in the experience and thoughts of someone whose opinions I respected, both as a social thing and to learn something. In other words, some types of questions are aimed at 1) building a social connection with the person you’re asking and 2) because you want to know what they , spe…

> It doesn’t really matter how good AI systems get, that’s not going to change, and since most white collar work deals with these kinds of problems, there is little danger in it being replaced. Does the accounts payable team keep their jobs because their manager enjoys chatting with them? Does the junior analyst stay employed because the VP values their specific personal opinion on the Q3 revenue forecast? Note the a…

I wouldn’t frame it as “chatting with,” more like, corporations want people in certain roles to deal with things, more than they necessarily want just the results that said person gives. Depends on the job and situation of course.

When you have X employee in a certain role, you know someone is “handling” a particular thing. With AI that isn’t really clear. Maybe you just get the same person owning the responsibilities that previously were under 3 people.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#76

Post by creamyhorror »

nik282000 wrote: post #10
nine_k wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyone keeps their jobs Company bosses somehow see this differently. Now that the best performers are empowered by AI, cut the worst-performing workforce, and still enjoy efficiency gains!

Which is funny because they are the most AI replaceable humans in the building. Their entire function is to follow the corporate decision tree to the letter and make sure that all communication upwards gets filtered through their outlook account.

The point of being the boss is getting to decide who to replace with AI, tbh. The shareholders may not replace you because of relationships/trust/accountability, and also because they don't want to have to be instructing the AI day-to-day (or arguing among themselves about it).

Maybe this will change in the future if AI-run companies emerge, get backing, and outcompete existing players.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#77

Post by pjmlp »

cadamsdotcom wrote: post #59

People used to be programmers, but the ratio of typing to problem solving eventually caught up. Now programming is just part of the job. Software engineering is falling to this trend too (somewhat) The solution is to stop merely thinking of yourself as a software engineer and move up to the level of “manager of agents”.. but actually, managers deal with human stuff and this is fascinatingly mechanical - in fact even…

The fallacy is to believe there is still a place for everyone.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#78

Post by pjmlp »

brtkwr wrote: post #47

If your plan for humanity is to maintain the current number of jobs on one planet, sure, AI is a threat. But if you think we should be building civilisations beyond Earth, terraforming, mining the outer solar system, understanding the universe — then a 10x productivity gain per person isn't a disruption. It's barely enough to get started. We need 100x. 1000x. And we'll still be short-handed. The chain of operation ne…

People still do press buttons, handle the few tasks still not available to robots, do maintenance as needed, it just happens they are now a fraction of what used to provide work to a whole village.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#79

Post by 7777777phil »

The "relational work is safe" argument misses that qhen you make part of a job cheaper to execute, organizations don't cut headcount, they expand what they expect from each person. The consultant doesn't get replaced, they get tasked with 3x the analyses. Total demand on labor goes up but the nature of the work shifts.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#80

Post by akKjans »

est31 wrote: post #55

From my opinion, the block layoffs were a test, to see how a) a software company manages with only half of its employees now that there's powerful LLMs, and b) how the remaining employees react to the imminent threat of them being laid off as well. If block succeeds, we'll see more layoffs of that kind, probably even more extreme ones. You are not top senior level employee? Out. You don't single handedly cause 30% of…

> the block layoffs were a test, to see how a) a software company manages with only half of its employees now that there's powerful LLMs, and b) how the remaining employees react to the imminent threat of them being laid off as well.

The block layoffs were due to years of over hiring.

> Already today, we have single person billion dollar exits

It was nowhere near that much, and this was more a coordinated marketing move by OpenAI than an organic process.

> high schoolers making millions from food apps

This app is a sign of the massive bubble we’re in. The developer should be ashamed to make people think they could estimate calories from an image.

There’s trillions of dollars behind these AI companies succeeding. A lot of the hype you’re seeing is paid for. If you’re reading news articles, blogs, etc and not digging any further you’re being manipulated.

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