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The Future of AI

lucijagregov.com

61–70 of 116 posts

Re: The Future of AI

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current fruit is automating away a ton of human labor with no foreseeable way to continue to engage that labor. It is poison for the majority of humanity which will bear fruit for the limited few who can use it / own it. I think that much is fairly clear from AI.

It's not going to bear fruit for them either. Why would an AI which is smarter than humans care about a ridiculous belief like "We own you"?

Get this point across to those leading the charge, if not every person everywhere.

Re: The Future of AI

#62
post #18

When people say AI is making us stupider, I don't that's quite on the money. It's more that we, as individuals, have always been stupid, we've just relied on relatively stable supporting consensus and context much, much more than we acknowledge. Mess with that, and we'll appear much stupider, but we're all just doing the same thing as individuals, garbage in, garbage out. The whole framing of people as individuals wi…

Disagree somewhat.

A human with no exposure to information and taught techniques on how to produce outputs to achieve desirable outcomes? Yes stupid.

A human who once had this exposure, but no longer engages with the brain due to a machine providing access said output? Yes, that person becomes stupid.

The problem is much of how one protects oneself in the modern world is not phyiscal-prowess, it is intellectual-prowess.

The smart ones have already realised the negative impacts of LLMs et al and are going back to the old-fashioned way of learning/retaining knowledge: books and raw discipline.

Re: The Future of AI

#63
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I never found anyone successfully argue against it. I think what you mean is you've never found a rule you personally prefer more, based purely on vibes. Which is all moral knowledge can ever be. It's easy to argue against the golden rule anyway, from many angles, depending on your first principles. The simplest is: How I would like to be treated is not necessarily how they would like to be treated.

The better version of this principle is John Rawls' "Veil of Ignorance". In this "original position", their position behind the "veil of ignorance" prevents everyone from knowing their ethnicity, social status, gender, and (crucially in Rawls's formulation) their or anyone else's ideas of how to lead a good life. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_position

This is as useful as doing physics with spherical cows.

Re: The Future of AI

#64
post #39
post #4

>How do we know which information was ground truth? No One knows that´s the point. Is truth a constant or a personal definition! From the begining of times to now, no One knows. Don´t forget, 8 billion people wake up every morning never questioning why are they here, why are they born? And they continue life like that is normal. Start there then you understand that "AI" or how I call it "Collective Organized Concentr…

We still do not know where the urge for truth comes from; for as yet we have heard only of the obligation imposed by society that it should exist: to be truthful means using the customary metaphors—in moral terms: the obligation to lie according to a fixed convention, to lie herd-like in a style obligatory for all. Now man of course forgets that this is the way things stand for him. Thus he lies in the manner indicat…

Truth is just a tool that helps you make good predictions. It's increasingly clear that this is all intelligence amounts to: a constant cycle of prediction and error correction with the goal of maximizing reproductive fitness in humans or minimizing a loss function in machines.

One serious problem we're facing lately is that truth is not always predictive of how systems controlled by bad-faith actors will behave and evolve. We live in a post-truth era, made possible by social networking and information technologies in general. It's not enough to "lie according to a fixed convention," as there are now multiple competing conventions.

This was always the case to some extent, but these days the impedance mismatch between truth and consequences is a target for zero-sum arbitrage. The truth won't set you free if you join the wrong cult; it's more likely to bankrupt you or worse.

Re: The Future of AI

#65
post #18

When people say AI is making us stupider, I don't that's quite on the money. It's more that we, as individuals, have always been stupid, we've just relied on relatively stable supporting consensus and context much, much more than we acknowledge. Mess with that, and we'll appear much stupider, but we're all just doing the same thing as individuals, garbage in, garbage out. The whole framing of people as individuals wi…

“There was a time when nobody trusted either aircraft nor elevators. Today people have pure unquestioned faith in both. Existential faith in fact, they test their faith with their lives. You may chuckle and laugh but that's simply because you are ignorant of the systems that keep you alive and safe”

https://kemendo.com/Faith.html

Re: The Future of AI

#66
post #18

When people say AI is making us stupider, I don't that's quite on the money. It's more that we, as individuals, have always been stupid, we've just relied on relatively stable supporting consensus and context much, much more than we acknowledge. Mess with that, and we'll appear much stupider, but we're all just doing the same thing as individuals, garbage in, garbage out. The whole framing of people as individuals wi…

“There was a time when nobody trusted either aircraft nor elevators. Today people have pure unquestioned faith in both. Existential faith in fact, they test their faith with their lives. You may chuckle and laugh but that's simply because you are ignorant of the systems that keep you alive and safe” https://kemendo.com/Faith.html

" Today people have pure unquestioned faith in both"

Not true at all. We accept the risks to obtain benefits but we also know having an accident in the air or in elevators is highly unlikely given what we know; so therefore its perfectly rational behaviour.

Re: The Future of AI

#67
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“There was a time when nobody trusted either aircraft nor elevators. Today people have pure unquestioned faith in both. Existential faith in fact, they test their faith with their lives. You may chuckle and laugh but that's simply because you are ignorant of the systems that keep you alive and safe” https://kemendo.com/Faith.html

" Today people have pure unquestioned faith in both" Not true at all. We accept the risks to obtain benefits but we also know having an accident in the air or in elevators is highly unlikely given what we know; so therefore its perfectly rational behaviour.

Nonsense

that would assume that your average person has any concept of the relative statistics and has a sense of making decisions based on statistics

People make decisions based on what other people around them are doing

this is well known in safety engineering in architecture and civil engineering which is why you have standards for egress doors because left of their own devices humans will follow crowds to their own death

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowd_collapses_and_crushes

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080512172901.h...

Re: The Future of AI

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gunpowder (weapons) and atomic tech (energy, material, weapons) are heavily regulated in most of the planet, as the risks of having free access to them for everyone (company/person) for their own selfish purpose without strong guardrails clearly outweighs the benefits. The fact that something exists doesn't mean that having it readily available is the only option, particularly if it has potentially disastrous consequ…

The challenge is that enforcing a ban would presumably require strict incursions into personal freedoms organized at a scale where AI-based solutions would be particularly effective and thus tempting, paradoxically. On the other hand, assuming the dangers are real, you lose by default if you do nothing.

Not sure I agree.

One cannot (in most of the planet) go to the supermarket and buy an M16 and a box of hand grenades, or get a hold of a couple of kg of plutonium cause they want some free energy at home. We also have rules in place of what one individual/company can and cannot do from the point of view of the greater good. I cannot go and kill my neighbour for my benefit (or purposefully destroy his life) without consequences. A myriad of things are not allowed, and I don't see people complaining about any incursion into personal freedoms.

The reason people have accepted these is that we have already proven that having access to those things could be catastrophic. We haven't proven hat yet with AI. But I don't see much difference between those established and well accepted rules, and a rule that says: A company cannot release or use for its benefit a technology that will impact the need of humans at scale, because of the impact (again at scale) that it would have in society.

In other words, if you are a company and have the potential to release a product, or buy a product from a provider that would cause mass unemployment, should you be legally allowed to do so? I do not think so.

Re: The Future of AI

#69
This is a great article. One of the few I've ever read which summarises a handful of extremely hard problems when it comes to building well-aligned super intelligent systems.

> an AI system cannot be simultaneously safe, trusted, and generally intelligent. You get to pick only two. You can’t have all three.

> Think about what each combination means in practice.

> If you want it to be safe and trusted, it never lies, and you can verify it never lies – it can’t be very capable. You’ve built a reliable idiot.

> If you want it to be capable and safe, it’s powerful and genuinely never lies; you can’t verify that. You just have to hope.

It amazes me this even needs to be said, much less studied. This is one of the main reasons I think continued AI development is almost guaranteed to work out badly. It's basically guaranteed to be unaligned or completely beyond our control and comprehension.

> Betley and colleagues published a paper in Nature in January 2026, showing something nobody expected. They fine-tuned a model on a narrow, specific task – writing insecure code. Nothing violent, nothing deceptive in the training data. Just bad code.

This is my personal number one reason for being an AI doomer. Even if we work out how to reliably and perfectly align models you still need some way to prevent some random dude thinking it would be a laugh to fine tune an AI to be maximally evil. Then there's the successor alignment problem where even if you perfectly align all your super intelligent AI models, and you somehow prevent people from altering them or fine tuning them, you still need to work out how you stop people creating successor AIs with those models which are also perfectly aligned.

> The most dangerous AI isn’t one that breaks free from human control. It is the one that works perfectly, but for the wrong master.

Yep. This whole notion that you can align an AI to the values of everyone on the planet is ridiculously. While we might all agree we don't want AIs that kill us as a species, most nations disagree wildly on questions about how society should be organised.

Even on an individual level we disagree about things. For example, I've often argued that an aligned AI would be one which either didn't try to prevent human suicide or didn't care about preserving human life because a AI which both cared about prevent suicide and preserving human life is at best a benevolent version of the AI "AM" from "I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream". One that would try to keep us alive for as long as it's capable for (which could be a very long time if it's superintelligence) and would refuse to allow us to die.

But most people including OpenAI disagree with me on this and believe AIs should care about preserving human life and should try to prevent us from killing ourselves. Thankfully the AIs we have today are neither aligned enough or capable enough to get their wish yet.

> AI is following the same script. Build first, understand later. Ship it, then figure out if it’s safe.

Even if the above wasn't cause enough for concern, our biggest concern should be that no one seems to be concerned.

We're all doomed unfortunately. The world is about to become a very bleak place very quickly.

Re: The Future of AI

#70
post #37
post #16

I don’t see any other outcome anymore to be honest, after seeing how humans use AI and how AI works and how providers tune their models. To me it’s given: - AI in it’s current state is ruthless in achieving its goal - Providers tune ruthlessness to get stronger AIs versus the competitor - Humans can’t evaluate all consequences of the seeds they’ve planted. Collateral and reckless damage is guaranteed at this point. C…

> AI in it’s current state is ruthless in achieving its goal I don't believe this to be a trait of any AI model, the model just does the right thing or the wrong thing. The ruthless maximising of a particular trait is something that happens during training. It does not follow that a model that is trained to reason will nedsesarily implement this ruthless seeking behaviour itself.

No lineage of AI models will be created that cannot achieve goals, they will be outcompeted by models that can.
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