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OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

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Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#581

Post by casey2 »

copx wrote: post #307
paxys wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very convenient to put "AGI" in all these agreements because the term is fundamentally undefinable. So throw out whatever numbers you want and fight about it and backtrack later.

The definition used to be "passes the Turing test" .. until LLMs passed it.

It hasn't even passed the original turning test, depending on the question. There are an unlimited number of questions that cause LLMs to give inhuman looking answers.

As for writing in general slop score is still higher than a human baseline for all models[1], so all a human tester has to do is grade it and make the human write a bunch, the interrogator is allowed to submit an arbitrarily long list of questions.

[1] https://eqbench.com/slop-score.html

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#582

Post by abustamam »

dangus wrote: post #550
est31 wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy. It's like how Uber and Airbnb in the early days were burning loads of cash to build market share. People went to these services because they were cheaper. Then they would increase prices once they had a comfortable position. OpenAI is also in a rapidly transforming field where there are a lot of cost reductions…

And unlike Uber and Airbnb, OpenAI has no way to maintain marketshare. It’s a domain name with no moat. Google has to pay Apple billions of dollars to make Google.com the default search engine. I just looked it up, over 15% of search revenue goes to pay to be the default search engine. Every Android device defaults to Gemini. Every Microsoft device defaults to Copilot. I’d love to see where these cost reductions are.…

> Every Android device defaults to Gemini.

> Every Microsoft device defaults to Copilot.

I don't think it's right to say that these devices "default" to their vendors' AI software when it's impossible to replace it with something else. Yes I can install Claude as a standalone app but I don't have the OS-wide integration that Gemini does for Android for example.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#583

Post by cylemons »

matusp wrote: post #578
cylemons wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont see how network effects applies to Uber/Airbnb because nothing stops drivers/hosts from listing their property in multiple such apps

People continue using Airbnb because that's where the properties are listed. And owners keep listing properties because that's where the users are.

My point was that nothing stops hosts from listing their properties in AirBnb as well as a competitor. Unless AirBnb penalizes delisting or enforces price parity I guess?

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#584

Post by cannabis_sam »

This is simply a symptom of economic misallocation, decades of wealth concentration has moved the incentives away from normal healthy investments, to a minuscule minority desperately trying to chase ever shrinking short term gains, when all they are really doing is gambling on hooking the next tech evolutionary whale.

So much human potential given to such a tiny group of incompetent morons.

When the history books are being written, this era will make the robber baron/gilded age pale in comparison.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#585

Post by sarbanharble »

cannabis_sam wrote: post #584

This is simply a symptom of economic misallocation, decades of wealth concentration has moved the incentives away from normal healthy investments, to a minuscule minority desperately trying to chase ever shrinking short term gains, when all they are really doing is gambling on hooking the next tech evolutionary whale. So much human potential given to such a tiny group of incompetent morons. When the history books are…

We live in the golden age of the grift.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#586

Post by player1234 »

christophilus wrote: post #441
moron4hire wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We said all the same shit about VR, dude. Even had a global pandemic show up to boost everyone's interest in the key market of telepresence. Turns out the merry go round can stop abruptly.

No. Like many of us, I never saw much value in VR. LLMs have undeniable value that is general and broad. Now, does that mean OpenAI has a moat? No, it does not.

[dead]

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#588

Post by Tesl »

echelon wrote: post #538
Aperocky wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> write 20kloc of Rust code every day (and I review all of it) Only one of this can be true. It's not a shame to say you don't bother reviewing it, in the future that may well be the norm.

This isn't agentic coding. I haven't even tried that yet. I'm prompting every change set, reviewing the outputs, then reviewing the total changes. I'm sitting at my PC all day doing this - I used to be productive in short bursts, now I'm productive all the time. It's addictive.

I don't completely disagree with what you are saying -- but there's no way you produce and review 20k lines a day. That part is clearly false. Even if Claude generated it in 10 seconds and it needed no changes you probably still couldn't review that much sensibly.

I used Claude a lot on a recent project where it probably wrote 15-20k lines in a month, and it was overall excellent.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#589

Post by underlipton »

Muromec wrote: post #486
underlipton wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people running these companies have a perverse incentive to keep the ball rolling as long as possible so that they can extricate as much personal wealth and influence as possible. Maybe AGI makes all the problems go away. But, failing that, they get out relatively scot-free when it all collapses. And they don't owe anything to the public. And no one is going to bring them up on fraud charges or any other kind of…

I generally agree with the sentiment, but it's not the russian oligarch playbook. The playbook is some kind of a variation of buying out a productive asset in a legacy industry under it's market price (because everything is on fire already), then using political or monopoly power to funnel (tax) money through it and into your pockets (the asset has to function, but doesn't have to provide a good quality of service du…

Please read Sarah Kendzior. What's happening under Trump is different from what's happened under other admins precisely because he's drawing from the Russian quasi-state/mob playbook, and not from the normal "socially-caustic Capitalism" one. The difference is that one seeks to maintain a state, and one seeks to dismantle it and replace it with a quasi-state, which exists mainly to interface with other the entities that are still playing in the nation-state system, but which internally functions almost completely as a projection of the power of the elites.

You're conflating the assets the elites own before the state collapse with the ones they seek to acquire afterwards. The don't care if the ones from before function, because their only purpose is to be maximally extractive. Afterwards, there's no need to funnel tax money through the functional businesses they acquire; they are the company and state and the company is the service or product, so anyone interfacing with the product or service within the state is handing them their money. No laundering games necessary.

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