261–270 of 620 posts
HN told me OpenAI was on the verge of collapse.
I don't know that OpenAI specifically is the weak link but this definitely adds to the argument that the entire sector is a wash with the same three or four companies passing around the same $50B over and over. OpenAI is just the link that seems most likely to break first.
I'm sure that $50b has my money in there somewhere.
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You'll always find someone claiming X or Y are close to collapse at any given time. As even a broken clock is right twice a day, eventually one of these predictions will randomly be proven correct. That person will then be elevated to a genius forecaster and rake in cash for a decade or two.
Actually it is the other way around; every upstart claims that their invention is the mostest revolutionariest thing ever. 99.9% of them are not. The nay sayers are right most of the time. Recent high-profile examples include Segway, NFT, Crypto as a whole, pre-tranformers voice assistants and various "Design Thinking" projects like those Amazon prime buttons.
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It's not "continue" buying as much as this is NVIDIA fronting the money for (most of) the hardware OpenAI has already ordered from them. It's like borrowing rent money from your drug dealer.
Great analogy. ;-) Doubt Jensen sees himself as a “dealer” but considering the vendor lock-in and margins, he pretty much is the Tony Montana of Ai Chips. It’s nuts that this type of financing is legal.
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Once they "reach AGI", will they have a big party on a carrier with a "Mission Accomplished" banner?
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I can't get Augment / Opus 4.5 to edit a few C++ files from within VSCode without going off on a wild goose chase or getting stuck in an infinite loop after I tell that it should be doing this: "oh, you're right, I need to do X", "To do X, I must understand how to do Y", "I see now that to do Y, I should look at at Z". "Let me look at Z", followed by: "oh, you're right, I need to do X"..
Interesting story for sure (to be clear I'm not talking about the writing by Reuters), but would you buy or skip the OpenAi IPO? To me it feels like one of those throw some play money into it and see what happens sort of situations. Expect it will return negative due to the raw financials and outlook, but small chance the brand carries enough weight with the public that it spikes. I'd love to hear other thoughts thou…
But at such numbers it's nonsense.
I don't see any moat. LLMs are commodities.
Enterprise is on Gemini/NotebookLM and Copilot as it's a natural extension of the Google and Office suite they use.
Devs are in Anthropic camp, but they will jump as soon as they can save 90% of the money for 99% of the output.
Less than a decade ago companies reaching 1 trillion was still every much "out there". Now we have an IPO at almost 1 trillion. It's clear that the stock market cannot be considered normal anymore, held up on hopes at prayers at best.
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Once they "reach AGI", will they have a big party on a carrier with a "Mission Accomplished" banner?
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Only one of this can be true. It's not a shame to say you don't bother reviewing it, in the future that may well be the norm.
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> I give you $100 cash and you give me $100 worth of stock in return. Now you give me $100 cash to buy something from me that cost me $80 to produce. I end up with $100 worth of stock in your company which cost me only $80. No? Sure, but how's that a cheat code? If you normally sell something for $100 that costs $80 to make, and then use that $100 revenue to buy $100 of stock, this is an identical outcome for you.
They wouldn’t have bought $100 worth of product if the deal weren’t offered, because they didn’t have $100 to spend.
Again, this is not a cheat code: if you sell $80 of cost for $100 of stock, the stock you now own can go up or down, and if you overvalued it then down is the more likely direction.