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The driverless road ahead

economist.com

31–40 of 82 posts

Re: The driverless road ahead

#31

Everyone's missing that drones (flying cars) might take off too at roughly the same time. The challenge of making driverless cars completely safe (intelligent sensing and control) is also the challenge for flying cars. Flying cars would beat out road cars and so the reenvisioning of society is greater than what people like Brad Templeton have done. With flying cars, all investments in roads become useless and huge sw…

What is your argument that flying cars would beat out road cars? Flying requires way more energy and energy has always been scarce up till now.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#32
post #22
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is utilization over time important? If we assume that people will still travel the same number of miles[1], then while there will be fewer cars on the road at any given moment, they will wear out more quickly as they are utilized more heavily. Another way of thinking of it is that there is demand for a certain number of vehicle-miles per year. In the aggregate over the long term, it is no different if we buy 5 cars,…

It's an old chestnut that buying a salesman's car with lots of miles is a lot better than buying the same vehicle from a housewife that only used it to go shopping and shuttle the kids to school. Besides, who says that the driverless car isn't more like industrial equipment instead of the current consumer crap, made to go on "forever" to justify its high price?

I think that is a very good point.

While designing cars to last longer would increase the weight of some components, for example allowing more metal around the cylinders so that they can be re-bored a number of times, this could be at least partially by having a much reduced burden of crash resistance.

Some things could be alleviated simply by avoiding the maintenance / cost cutting shortcuts used today. For example fitting grease nipples to ball joints and greasing them regularly makes them last a great deal longer than the sealed units which are riveted to swing arms today!

Re: The driverless road ahead

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A cab in SF costs $2.25 per mile (plus a flag fee, plus a fee for waiting in traffic, plus an airport surcharge) The IRS mileage rate is 14 cents per mile driven in service of charitable organizations and 51 cents per mile driven for business. Taxis haven't replaced private cars because they're radically more expensive.

Why would you think that a self-driving car fleet will have less cost? They will be regulated just like taxis. Including insurance and most importantly medallions. Replacing the drivers will not cut the cost in an industry that creates artificial scarcity.

[deleted]

Re: The driverless road ahead

#34
This piece strikes me as too Utopian. While most people, including me, will likely adopt driverless cars, a substantial minority of the population will never adopt them.

Should driverless cars become mainstream, criminals of all kinds will quickly find ways to game the system to make vehicles driver-controlled, and (more ominously) will figure out how to hack into other people's cars and use them for nefarious purposes -- vehicle botnets that can cause major economic and physical damage. The police will need ways to override driverless vehicles to keep up with criminals.

Moreover, many individuals who love driving their sports cars don't want driverless vehicles; many law-abiding car hackers and tinkerers don't want to relinquish full control over their vehicles; and civil-rights organizations will likely end up fighting driverless vehicles in the courts.

Instead of an Utopian, smoothly-working, accident-free system that doesn't need police, seat belts, or insurance, I would expect our road-traffic system to evolve into a more complex mix of driverless and driver-controlled vehicles. The unintended consequences of the transition to this system, and its ultimate legal and technological requirements, are really unknowable at this point.

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PS. In response to paulsutter below, this is not "dystopian terrorist hacker paranoia!" All I'm saying is that the transition will be a lot less simple and smooth, and will have more unintended complex consequences, than suggested by this piece. That's usually how it goes when society makes fundamental changes to the architecture of a large, widely used, complex system!

Re: The driverless road ahead

#35
> When people are no longer in control of their cars they will not need driver insurance—so goodbye to motor insurers and brokers.

This is a bit delusional. Someone will have to pay for accidents and injuries.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#37

>Just imagine. [Driverless cars] could, for a start, save the motor industry from stagnation...; and since [cars] would be able to drop off their passengers and drive away, the lack of parking spaces in town might not matter so much. Strange that the Economist would catch the diminished need for parking spaces, but miss the real economic impact of driverless cars: many fewer cars would be needed as utilization rates…

The problem is that most people need their cars at the same time - rush hour.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#38
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Tesla will solve this problem for just about anyone within 10 years. They already did with the Tesla Supercharger network (free charging), but the pricing of the cars is not accessible for everyone right now. In 10 years it will be. Pretty sure there will be an under $20,000 model within 10 years. From what I've noticed Tesla looks to cut the price in half every 3 years for their new models.

Even under $20k isn't low enough for many people. If you live in a city and are happy with your public transit options, then it's only around $100 a month. Which is way way less than car payment + insurance + maintenance. Even without paying for fuel.

If we have $20k models in 10 years, we'll have $5k used models in another 10.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#39
post #34

This piece strikes me as too Utopian. While most people, including me , will likely adopt driverless cars, a substantial minority of the population will never adopt them. Should driverless cars become mainstream, criminals of all kinds will quickly find ways to game the system to make vehicles driver-controlled, and (more ominously) will figure out how to hack into other people's cars and use them for nefarious purpo…

They won't have a choice, actually. Emerging economies like China will eat this up to solve their traffic congestion problems in big cities, and are totalitarian enough to mandate it. Once it becomes a huge economic advantage, the other economies will have to follow just to keep up. Governments are lazy, they will want to push more traffic into their road systems at less cost because you hate traffic and taxes!

Hybrid solutions are also possible: there will be certain roads (controlled access interstates) where driverless is mandatory while certain streets where driver intervention is required. You still get most of the traffic optimization benefits if the driverless roads are congestion bottlenecks. However, the real benefit doesn't come until we have driverless cities, where people don't need to own cars and a roaming fleet of autonomous vehicles serve as pervasive taxis. You could even get rid of parking lots!

The system can easily trace what cars are bad actors and adapt accordingly (shut down traffic in a region with a bad actor until police arrive).

Re: The driverless road ahead

#40

One problem that nobody seems to see is: -) As soon as software controls something it's the question about if you control the software, or if the software controls the user One of the big arguments rms always had about free software, but think about it: Let's say i have a self-driving car, how do i know that there isn't a backdoor in there? How about my car being hacked and being remote controlled? How about my car b…

You may trust yourself, but as I ride around on my motorcycle, I don't trust you at all. Give me self-driving cars anyway.
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