The driverless road ahead • Hacker News Board

Re: The driverless road ahead

#11

Post by peff » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:05 PM UTC

peff wrote: post #10

paulsutter wrote: post #2

>Just imagine. [Driverless cars] could, for a start, save the motor industry from stagnation...; and since [cars] would be able to drop off their passengers and drive away, the lack of parking spaces in town might not matter so much. Strange that the Economist would catch the diminished need for parking spaces, but miss the real economic impact of driverless cars: many fewer cars would be needed as utilization rates…

Is utilization over time important? If we assume that people will still travel the same number of miles[1], then while there will be fewer cars on the road at any given moment, they will wear out more quickly as they are utilized more heavily. Another way of thinking of it is that there is demand for a certain number of vehicle-miles per year. In the aggregate over the long term, it is no different if we buy 5 cars,…

By the way, I'm assuming a taxi-like shared car fleet here, where you just get in some car that is available, it takes you where you want to go, and then goes to pick somebody else up afterwards. Without that, you would not have the reduction in number of cars on the road and need for parking.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#12

Post by DanielBMarkham » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:06 PM UTC

Every generation has a thing that defines itself -- something that changes everything.

Seems like we've been a while since the last one, which was the internet. To me the next two look like driverless cars and advanced 3-D printing. Affordable fusion might be one, but I'm not holding my breath.

There are a lot of other cool things out there, of course: Elon Musk and his rocket program, trans-humanism, progress towards strong AI. But assuming we all actually stay individual people and don't become something like a hive mind (which is a big assumption), being able to go places without effort and make our own goods at home will empower people in ways never seen before. 50 years after these technologies mature, it'll be a completely different world.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#13

Post by mtgx » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:19 PM UTC

emperorcezar wrote: post #9

I love reading the articles on driverless cars. Every single one conveniently forgets that, at this point, we're no where near solving the fueling issue for any car. Teens aren't getting cars because they are too lazy to take the drivers test. It's because the cost, fuel, and maintenance just aren't worth it to them. Even if it drives itself.

I think Tesla will solve this problem for just about anyone within 10 years. They already did with the Tesla Supercharger network (free charging), but the pricing of the cars is not accessible for everyone right now. In 10 years it will be. Pretty sure there will be an under $20,000 model within 10 years. From what I've noticed Tesla looks to cut the price in half every 3 years for their new models.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#14

Post by mibbitier » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:33 PM UTC

Driverless cars are just another segway. No one will buy one, because they do not solve a problem most people have.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#15

Post by emperorcezar » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:35 PM UTC

mtgx wrote: post #13

emperorcezar wrote: post #9

I love reading the articles on driverless cars. Every single one conveniently forgets that, at this point, we're no where near solving the fueling issue for any car. Teens aren't getting cars because they are too lazy to take the drivers test. It's because the cost, fuel, and maintenance just aren't worth it to them. Even if it drives itself.

I think Tesla will solve this problem for just about anyone within 10 years. They already did with the Tesla Supercharger network (free charging), but the pricing of the cars is not accessible for everyone right now. In 10 years it will be. Pretty sure there will be an under $20,000 model within 10 years. From what I've noticed Tesla looks to cut the price in half every 3 years for their new models.

Even under $20k isn't low enough for many people. If you live in a city and are happy with your public transit options, then it's only around $100 a month. Which is way way less than car payment + insurance + maintenance. Even without paying for fuel.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#16

Post by michaelt » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:36 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #7

paulsutter wrote: post #2

>Just imagine. [Driverless cars] could, for a start, save the motor industry from stagnation...; and since [cars] would be able to drop off their passengers and drive away, the lack of parking spaces in town might not matter so much. Strange that the Economist would catch the diminished need for parking spaces, but miss the real economic impact of driverless cars: many fewer cars would be needed as utilization rates…

We already have cars that don't need you to drive them: taxis. Where I live the various different competing taxi companies compete to give a pretty high level of service - I can order a cab via an iPhone app or through an IVR system that only requires me to press a single key if I want a taxi there and then - payment is to account (work) or chip-n-pin. Even with a pretty decent taxi service I still own a car, as do m…

A cab in SF costs $2.25 per mile (plus a flag fee, plus a fee for waiting in traffic, plus an airport surcharge)

The IRS mileage rate is 14 cents per mile driven in service of charitable organizations and 51 cents per mile driven for business.

Taxis haven't replaced private cars because they're radically more expensive.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#17

Post by LeafStorm » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:36 PM UTC

While driverless cars do provide advantages over normal cars, there are two counterpoints I would like to make.

First, there are people who simply will not trust the driverless cars. I was talking to a friend yesterday who said that he wouldn't ride in a driverless car, and he wouldn't want to drive on the same road as one. Uptake is not going to be as fast as people seem to expect once the cars are practical for market.

And second, in the words of Jarrett Walker [1]: "Technology never changes facts of geometry." No matter how small you can make the engines, airbags, and frame, as long as you have each passenger in a separate, self-propelled, hopefully crash-proof shell, they are always going to take up far more space than a bus or a train, and require far more resources to construct.

[1] http://www.humantransit.org/2012/08/bus-stigma-and-driverles...

Re: The driverless road ahead

#18

Post by scotty79 » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:43 PM UTC

LeafStorm wrote: post #17

While driverless cars do provide advantages over normal cars, there are two counterpoints I would like to make. First, there are people who simply will not trust the driverless cars. I was talking to a friend yesterday who said that he wouldn't ride in a driverless car, and he wouldn't want to drive on the same road as one. Uptake is not going to be as fast as people seem to expect once the cars are practical for mar…

Might take a generation or so to die out till driverless cars will reach near 100% adoption.

I've heard that when electricity came about there were people afraid of touching light switches because they had something to do with electricity. I personally know a person (mentally healthy, over 80 years old) that does not want to be alone in the room with turned on TV because she's afraid of electricity.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#19

Post by DanBC » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:43 PM UTC

LeafStorm wrote: post #17

While driverless cars do provide advantages over normal cars, there are two counterpoints I would like to make. First, there are people who simply will not trust the driverless cars. I was talking to a friend yesterday who said that he wouldn't ride in a driverless car, and he wouldn't want to drive on the same road as one. Uptake is not going to be as fast as people seem to expect once the cars are practical for mar…

Buses and trains are, sometimes[1], lousy modes of transport. A company could provide self-driving cars for its commuters. Being small means the vehicles can pick up passengers from their homes (or local coffee shops, or wherever) without that being annoying for the other passengers.

[1] I guess it depends what buses and trains you catch.

Re: The driverless road ahead

#20

Post by ari_elle » Sun, Oct 28, 2012, 1:46 PM UTC

One problem that nobody seems to see is:

-) As soon as software controls something it's the question about if you control the software, or if the software controls the user

One of the big arguments rms always had about free software, but think about it:

Let's say i have a self-driving car, how do i know that there isn't a backdoor in there? How about my car being hacked and being remote controlled?

How about my car being pulled over by the police by remote control if i don't stop?

And what about spontaneity in driving?

Will i still be able to make a U-Turn whenever i want?

Having navigated through big cities with cars i can tell you that it's more than just reading signs and staying on the correct lane...

Once we got self-driving cars then all of the above points will be issues and we should seriously think about all of this in my opinion.

If i could make sure that non of the above is valid i might still fancy it for boring highways. For cities or narrow situations i will always trust myself.