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The only moat left is money?

elliotbonneville.com

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Re: The only moat left is money?

#151

Post by _DeadFred_ »

RC_ITR wrote: post #31
showerst wrote: post #3

This AI boom is just a hyper-version of previous tech booms (web 1.0, VC, crypto, etc). You have an enormous number of people who just want to get in and build something, but the products they are pumping out don't serve anyone's need or solve anyone's problem. The moat isn't money for out-marketing your idea that 750 other people are building, it's having a good idea that solves a problem that nobody else is solving…

It's like that FT chart claiming that the rapid rise in iOS apps is evidence of an AI-fueled productivity boom. I always ask people, in the past year, how many AI-coded apps have you 1) downloaded 2) paid for?

Because so much technical functionality has been lost/paywalled/dark patterned/enshitified, I've cut the number of apps I use. I've realized building core personal functionality around the whims of corporations eventually just gets weaponized against me, so I might as well start undoing that on my own terms. Who in 2026 is really bringing in a new app/Saas to do much of anything like we naively did a decade ago? No one I know, we've been shown we will be treated as suckers for doing that.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#152

Post by jonathanstrange »

tquinn35 wrote: post #8

I disagree. I think creativity is still a valid moat. You still need to build good products. Its like a restaurant anyone with some money can open a restaurant but you need to has the creativity to make a good one.

That's my hope, too, since I've had the unfortunate luck of practically being forced to fulfill my lifelong dream and create a software company as a solo dev in 2025. Great timing...

However, I've gotten doubts about the value of creativity and having a vision. Plenty of people have great creativity and a fantastic vision, and we can see already how AI allows people to churn out interesting and useful projects at much faster pace than just a few years ago. The problem is that it seems more and more impossible to actually make a living of that.

Anybody with the money to have access to enough AI will be able to create a clone of software X. We might not be there quite yet but it's just a matter of time. That seems to be a death sentence for any small software business.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#153

Post by Jensson »

tensor wrote: post #126
autoconfig wrote: post #63

> When creation was hard, skill was the differentiator: you had to actually be good to make something worth showing. Now the barrier is near zero, so you need reach. Reach costs money or it costs years. Probably both. Creation has progressively been getting easier since the invention of the computer, it is not a new phenomena. This naturally pushes the boundary on what needs to be delivered in order to find paying cu…

> Creation has progressively been getting easier since the invention of the computer, it is not a new phenomena. This naturally pushes the boundary on what needs to be delivered in order to find paying customers. In other words, creation still is "hard" if you want to succeed. Only for developers. Outside of software creation is still hard. Global markets giving access to excellent manufacturing sure does help, but s…

Creating marketing material has certainly gotten easier as well, it used to require a lot of work to create these spam pamphlets and company documents but today its trivial. Of course those are worthless to society so didn't help GDP but it filled our society with advertisements and spam and filled companies with worthless documents since now nobody thinks before making one.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#154

Post by vkou »

sarchertech wrote: post #67
RC_ITR wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's like that FT chart claiming that the rapid rise in iOS apps is evidence of an AI-fueled productivity boom. I always ask people, in the past year, how many AI-coded apps have you 1) downloaded 2) paid for?

In addition to that, what they don’t mention is that: 1. Other app stores like Google Play and Steam haven’t seen this rapid rise. 2. There are thousands maybe tens of thousands of apps that are just wrappers calling OpenAI APIs or similar low effort AI apps making up a large percentage of this increase. 3. There are billions of dollars pouring into AI startups and many of them launch an iOS app.

Has steam not seen a rapid rise in AI-asset shovelware?

I'm not talking about the AAA or the AA or even the A space (where AI is being incorporated into dev processes with various degrees of both success and low effort slop), I'm talking about the actual bottom of the barrel.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#155

Post by esseph »

RC_ITR wrote: post #31
showerst wrote: post #3

This AI boom is just a hyper-version of previous tech booms (web 1.0, VC, crypto, etc). You have an enormous number of people who just want to get in and build something, but the products they are pumping out don't serve anyone's need or solve anyone's problem. The moat isn't money for out-marketing your idea that 750 other people are building, it's having a good idea that solves a problem that nobody else is solving…

It's like that FT chart claiming that the rapid rise in iOS apps is evidence of an AI-fueled productivity boom. I always ask people, in the past year, how many AI-coded apps have you 1) downloaded 2) paid for?

> I always ask people, in the past year, how many AI-coded apps have you 1) downloaded 2) paid for?

In the past 5 years, the only "new" app I've added to my phone has been Claude.ai.

Before that I guess DoorDash. And that probably covers the past 7ish years of phone use.

There's just too much shit in the store, a lot of it is scammy or has dark patterns.

For me, "app stores" are largely dead.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#156

Post by Jensson »

boplicity wrote: post #70
giancarlostoro wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't remember the last time I ate anywhere because of an ad. I eat out a lot too, used to uber eats nearly every single day. I wont reorder at places that mess up my order, but consistent quality I reward. Chick Fil A gives me the best service out of any fast-food restaurant, so they earn my repeat business.

People almost never admit it when they respond to an ad. Even when they very clearly do. Don't underestimate the effectiveness of advertising, or its ability to influence you.

You don't even see ads for local restaurants, you just go there because its close or a friend recommended it. How could you get influenced by something that doesn't exist? Their marketing is just the storefront, people go there since they are interested in this new place.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#157

Post by pmontra »

> Creation used to be the scarce thing, the filter. Now attention is. Most of us are on the wrong side of that trade.

"Wrong side" means that people on that side have to work harder to reach us. The terms of the trade did not change because creators are not starting to pay us to get our attention. Well, it happens sometimes: free trials, free tiers, coupons, etc. but it's a well established practice. The post contains a reference to "do more marketing".

Re: The only moat left is money?

#158

Post by curiouscavalier »

neom wrote: post #72
showerst wrote: post #3

This AI boom is just a hyper-version of previous tech booms (web 1.0, VC, crypto, etc). You have an enormous number of people who just want to get in and build something, but the products they are pumping out don't serve anyone's need or solve anyone's problem. The moat isn't money for out-marketing your idea that 750 other people are building, it's having a good idea that solves a problem that nobody else is solving…

I worked during the digital revolution in film, I've told the story a zillion times on HN but basically, I went through the first pure digital film program in Canada, by the time I graduated 70% had dropped out, as far as I know I'm the only one who made a proper go at it, and even then when my startup was taking off, a new hot shot would show up every month and be gone the next when they got bored or frustrated when…

yeah this is really a part of it. Both founders and investors get spooked by the rapid entries into a market but persistent not just when it’s hard but when it’s boring goes so much farther.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#159

Post by phil21 »

autoconfig wrote: post #63

> When creation was hard, skill was the differentiator: you had to actually be good to make something worth showing. Now the barrier is near zero, so you need reach. Reach costs money or it costs years. Probably both. Creation has progressively been getting easier since the invention of the computer, it is not a new phenomena. This naturally pushes the boundary on what needs to be delivered in order to find paying cu…

It's just another way of saying "Ideas are worthless, execution is what matters" which has always been largely true.

Yes, you need the idea first of course. But that's truly the easy part. 99% of "ideas" rely on great execution to be worth even looking at - much less paying for - for anyone else.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#160

Post by boplicity »

Jensson wrote: post #156
boplicity wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People almost never admit it when they respond to an ad. Even when they very clearly do. Don't underestimate the effectiveness of advertising, or its ability to influence you.

You don't even see ads for local restaurants, you just go there because its close or a friend recommended it. How could you get influenced by something that doesn't exist? Their marketing is just the storefront, people go there since they are interested in this new place.

Google Ads, especially Google Maps, has tons of paid ads for local restaurants. So does Uber Eats and similar ilk.

I particularly despise these ads in Maps because the ad often obscures the search result I'm looking for -- and I end up accidentally clicking on an advertisement for some other restaurant than the one I was looking up.

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