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Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

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Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#51

Post by traes »

smt88 wrote: post #44
lethologica wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Context helps. A lot of really strong players are 12 years old.

That context doesn't help me at all. Is a "really strong" 12yo in contention to win this particular competition that a 35yo won?

No, even the best prodigies typically aren't winning super tournaments until 17 or 18, and we haven't really had one of those since Gukesh won candidates last cycle. The youngest player in this event was a 20 year old who placed last. (Though to be fair to the youngsters, 3rd and 4th place are both 21 years old.)

Generally speaking it's expected that chess players will peak around their late 20s and slowly decline from there, with sharp declines around age 50. It's unusual but not unheard of for players in their 40s to win major tournaments. 42 year old Levon Aronian won several last year, but it was considered a notable example of longevity every time he won.

In terms of raw numbers, there are currently 30 players in their 30s, 15 players in their 40s, 4 players in their 50s, and no players older that in the top 100. The youngest is 14-year old Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus, who is considered the greatest chess prospect of all time.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#52

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

rybosworld wrote: post #21
make3 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or maybe he's just very good?

Agree you don't have to overcomplicate it. Magnus is a generational talent.

I would almost say “generational” is underselling it. Gretzky might be the only competitor that’s even comparable in terms of dominance.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#53

Post by Taek »

traes wrote: post #43
simbleau wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there really a decline with age when it comes to chess? I’m not sure he will really decline until he reaches his retirement age.

For some concrete numbers, there are only four players over 50 years of age in the top 100 at the moment by live ratings[0]. They are ranked #13 (age 56), #89 (age 53), #95 (age 54), and #97 (age 57). In their primes these players were ranked #1, #10, #4, and #3 respectively. [0]: https://2700chess.com/?per-page=100

This is some fascinating data, thanks for pulling it together.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#54

Post by Taek »

josephg wrote: post #50
Marsymars wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd expect them to have a larger edge in chess960 because humans can't prep openings like in regular chess.

Do modern chess AIs do any form of opening prep? Like, do they bake any opening analysis into their engines? Or is it all pure search?

Yes modern AIs have an entire opening database and generally have cached the first 20+ moves of the game (for most common openings) from a database of very deep searches identifying the best move. This is absolutely a form of opening prep for AIs.

That said, even without that database a modern AI will completely topple the best human at every common chess variant. Humans cannot defeat modern AIs in chess like games.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#55

Post by xiphias2 »

The last match was crazy. It looked so ,,easy win'' for Fabi after Magnus's blunder that I was just fast tracking it as I was sure Magnus has no chance (especially while looking at the eval bar).

I feel sorry for Fabi not winning it, but of course there can be only one winner.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#56

Post by Davidzheng »

smnplk wrote: post #14

I think Nakamura didnt play this time because of his Candidates prep. Otherwise I think Nakamura would have a slight edge on Carlsen in this game.

I think it's because he has a young child too. But I don't think there's an edge.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#57

Post by dehrmann »

traes wrote: post #43
simbleau wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there really a decline with age when it comes to chess? I’m not sure he will really decline until he reaches his retirement age.

For some concrete numbers, there are only four players over 50 years of age in the top 100 at the moment by live ratings[0]. They are ranked #13 (age 56), #89 (age 53), #95 (age 54), and #97 (age 57). In their primes these players were ranked #1, #10, #4, and #3 respectively. [0]: https://2700chess.com/?per-page=100

Isn't he playing Chess960 because he started finding standard chess boring? And wasn't that why Fischer worked on it in the first place? Experts might get bored of it by the time they're 50.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#58

Post by dwd »

epolanski wrote: post #23
saucymew wrote: post #9

It feels like the cohort GM player pool is mentally cooked against Magnus. Youngsters like Lazavik during the Speed Chess Championship or Sindarov in Freestyle were the most recent convincing wins against Magnus, but the historical mental edge that Magnus comes into each game after beating the brakes out of everyone is hard to overcome. Magnus' time will come! But not today.

I don't think it's merely mental albeit it seems like even nervous Carlsen is cooler than his very focused opponents (see game 3 vs Fabiano where caruana had a completely winning position after carlsens blunder). Carlsen has spent the core of his career mastering two aspects historically underlooked aspects of the game. The first is the endgame, and there isn't much to say there. He's by far the best end game player…

Carlsen has always had a tenacity that allows him to come back from positions other players would give up on thinking to conserve effort to fight another day. Mental strength and stamina to stay in the fight has always been something that made him who he is.

You also can't underestimate physical stamina. Kasparov in his 5-3 result against Karpov in 1984-85 was eventually halted due to Karpov's exhaustion and losing 18kg over the match period.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#59

Post by IMTDb »

make3 wrote: post #20
system2 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brain ages. He will eventually decline just like any human being. Let's hope by then he will have the wisdom to smile when that happens.

Ageism also just one of these shitty unproven biases, like sexism, which is self-realizing by applying pressure to people who fall out of the mold even slightly. He's 30 something, not 90.

Regarding sexism; most tournaments in Chess (including the world championship) are fully open and are thus gender netral: anyone can participate regardless of sex/gender and will compete on equal footing.

Women only categories have been created to give women visibility because they mostly were not able to reach advanced levels in the open format.

Some women choose to compete with men (Judit Polgár being a somewhat recent example) but most go straight to the women only tournaments to have a shot.

The men vs women « bias » is not unproven, they litterally had to create entire categories of competiton to account for it.

Re: Magnus Carlsen Wins the Freestyle (Chess960) World Championship

#60

Post by traes »

mythz wrote: post #46
smnplk wrote: post #14

I think Nakamura didnt play this time because of his Candidates prep. Otherwise I think Nakamura would have a slight edge on Carlsen in this game.

Hikaru is either in a slump or his skill is starting to age: hasn't won Titled Tuesday since November, hasn't won Freestyle Friday this year, came last in Speed Chess Championship, etc. We'll see how well he does in Candidates this year to see if he's still a top contender. Although I do believe this is his last chance to fight for the world title.

To be clear, "came last in Speed Chess Championship" actually means he came in 4th out of 16. He still made it to the semifinals. Even then he barely lost to Alireza, who is pretty universally considered a top 3 speed chess player. The loss to Lazavik was a lot worse, but it was still a close match against a strong player. He hasn't won a Titled Tuesday this year but he hasn't scored worse than 8/11 and he's still made the top 10. That's not as much of a slump as you imply IMO.
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