21–30 of 313 posts
I'm certainly not holding my breath. In a handful of prompts I got the paid version of ChatGPT to say it's possible for dogs to lay eggs under the right circumstances.
Do you believe you could not find humans who would do this?
AGI is here. 90%+ of white collar work _can_ be done by an LLM. We are simply missing a tested orchestration layer. Speaking broadly about knowledge work here, there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Especially if you're a typical office worker whose job is done primarily on a computer, if that's all AGI is, then yeah, it's here.
AGI is here. 90%+ of white collar work _can_ be done by an LLM. We are simply missing a tested orchestration layer. Speaking broadly about knowledge work here, there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Especially if you're a typical office worker whose job is done primarily on a computer, if that's all AGI is, then yeah, it's here.
That "simple orchestration layer" (paraphrased) is what I consider the AGI. But yeah, I suspect LLM:s may actually get close enough. "Just" add more reasoning loops and corresponding compute. It is objectively grotesquely wasteful (a human brain operates on 12 to 25 watts and would vastly outperform something like that), but it would still be cataclysmic. /layperson, in case that wasn't obvious
Yeah, but a human brain without the human attached to it is pretty useless. In the US, it averages out to around 2 kW per person for residential energy usage, or 9 kW if you include transportation and other primary energy usage too.
If AGI can be defined as meeting the general intelligence of a Redditor, we hit ASI a while ago. Highly relevant comment https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1jh9c90/why_do... > by /u/Pyros-SD-Models: >Imagine you had a frozen [large language] model that is a 1:1 copy of the average person, let’s say, an average Redditor. Literally nobody would use that model because it can’t do anything. It can’t code, can’…
AGI is here. 90%+ of white collar work _can_ be done by an LLM. We are simply missing a tested orchestration layer. Speaking broadly about knowledge work here, there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Especially if you're a typical office worker whose job is done primarily on a computer, if that's all AGI is, then yeah, it's here.
Lolwut. I keep having to correct Claude at trivial code organization tasks. The code it writes is correct; it’s just ham-fisted and violates DRY in unholy ways.
And I’m not even a great coder…
Our brains evolved to hunt prey, find mates, and avoid becoming hunted ourselves. Those three tasks were the main factors for the vast majority of evolutionary history. We didn't evolve our brains to do math, write code, write letters in the right registers to government institutions, or get an intuition on how to fold proteins. For us, these are hard tasks. That's why you get AI competing at IMO level but unable to…
I'm not excited about a future where the division of labor is something like: AI does all of the interesting stuff and the humans clean the toilets. Especially now that I'm older and my joints won't tolerate it.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That "simple orchestration layer" (paraphrased) is what I consider the AGI. But yeah, I suspect LLM:s may actually get close enough. "Just" add more reasoning loops and corresponding compute. It is objectively grotesquely wasteful (a human brain operates on 12 to 25 watts and would vastly outperform something like that), but it would still be cataclysmic. /layperson, in case that wasn't obvious
> a human brain operates on 12 to 25 watts Yeah, but a human brain without the human attached to it is pretty useless. In the US, it averages out to around 2 kW per person for residential energy usage, or 9 kW if you include transportation and other primary energy usage too.
Maybe the Matrix (1999) with the human battery farms were on to something. :)
I think that AGI has already happened, but it's not well understood, nor well distributed yet. OpenClaw, et al, are one thing that got me nudged a little bit, but it was Sammy Jankis[1,2] that pushed me over the edge, with force. It's janky as all get out, but it'll learn to build it's own memory system on top of an LLM which definitely forgets. [1] https://sammyjankis.com/ [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47…
Whether or not AGI is imminent, and whether or not Sammy Jankis is or will be conscious... it's going to become so close that for most people, there will be no difference except to philosophers.
Is AGI 'right around the corner' or currently already achieved? I agree with the author, no, we have something like 10 years to go IMO. At the end of the post he points to the last 30 years of research, and I would accept that as an upper bound. In 10 to 30 years, 99% of people won't be able to distinguish between an 'AGI' and another person when not in meatspace.
Our brains evolved to hunt prey, find mates, and avoid becoming hunted ourselves. Those three tasks were the main factors for the vast majority of evolutionary history. We didn't evolve our brains to do math, write code, write letters in the right registers to government institutions, or get an intuition on how to fold proteins. For us, these are hard tasks. That's why you get AI competing at IMO level but unable to…
Humans discovered or invented all of those.