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Why I don't think AGI is imminent

dlants.me

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Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#12

Post by lysace »

ryanSrich wrote: post #5

AGI is here. 90%+ of white collar work _can_ be done by an LLM. We are simply missing a tested orchestration layer. Speaking broadly about knowledge work here, there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Especially if you're a typical office worker whose job is done primarily on a computer, if that's all AGI is, then yeah, it's here.

That "simple orchestration layer" (paraphrased) is what I consider the AGI.

But yeah, I suspect LLM:s may actually get close enough. "Just" add more reasoning loops and corresponding compute.

It is objectively grotesquely wasteful (a human brain operates on 12 to 25 watts and would vastly outperform something like that), but it would still be cataclysmic.

/layperson, in case that wasn't obvious

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#15

Post by ryanSrich »

lysace wrote: post #12
ryanSrich wrote: post #5

AGI is here. 90%+ of white collar work _can_ be done by an LLM. We are simply missing a tested orchestration layer. Speaking broadly about knowledge work here, there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Especially if you're a typical office worker whose job is done primarily on a computer, if that's all AGI is, then yeah, it's here.

That "simple orchestration layer" (paraphrased) is what I consider the AGI. But yeah, I suspect LLM:s may actually get close enough. "Just" add more reasoning loops and corresponding compute. It is objectively grotesquely wasteful (a human brain operates on 12 to 25 watts and would vastly outperform something like that), but it would still be cataclysmic. /layperson, in case that wasn't obvious

I think "tested" is the hard part. The simple part seems to be there already, loops, crons, and computer use is getting pretty close.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#16

Post by jobs_throwaway »

hi_hi wrote: post #11

How will we know if its AGI/Not AGI? (I don't think a simple app is gonna cut it here haha) What is the benchmark now that the Turing test has been blown out of the water?

Supranormal GDP growth is my bar. When its actually able to get around bottlenecks and produce value on a societal level

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#19

Post by dd8601fn »

est31 wrote: post #4

Our brains evolved to hunt prey, find mates, and avoid becoming hunted ourselves. Those three tasks were the main factors for the vast majority of evolutionary history. We didn't evolve our brains to do math, write code, write letters in the right registers to government institutions, or get an intuition on how to fold proteins. For us, these are hard tasks. That's why you get AI competing at IMO level but unable to…

I'm not excited about a future where the division of labor is something like: AI does all of the interesting stuff and the humans clean the toilets. Especially now that I'm older and my joints won't tolerate it.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#20

Post by causal »

ryanSrich wrote: post #5

AGI is here. 90%+ of white collar work _can_ be done by an LLM. We are simply missing a tested orchestration layer. Speaking broadly about knowledge work here, there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Especially if you're a typical office worker whose job is done primarily on a computer, if that's all AGI is, then yeah, it's here.

Opus is the very best and I still throw away most of what it produces. If I did not carefully vet its work I would degrade my code bases so quickly. To accurately measure the value of AI you must include the negative in your sum.
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