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xAI joins SpaceX

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Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#862
post #800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real reason is, Elon has SpaceX and xAI. He can create an illusion of synergy and orders of magnitude advancements to boost the market cap and pocket all the money. He realized long time ago you don't need to deliver to play the market cap game, in fact it's better if you are selling a story far in the future rather than a something you can deliver now.

I don't understand the claim. SpaceX is literally delivering? And I don't think there is any delusion about that being optional.

Yeah, delivering using Falcon 9.

The Starship stack? Not so much. It's plagued, and will continue to be plagued, by endless problems. BO will beat them with NG.

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#863
It's a scam. I don't understand how EVERYONE falls for Elon Musk's obvious scams, when every year his claims are more fantastical and exaggerated than the last.

This is obviously about propping up a shaky business (SpaceX) by making people believe that data centers in space are a solution. It's just riding the AI hype wave.

It's impossible to cool servers effectively in space, and, even though I'm skeptical, I'm more inclined to believe in a project to put them in the ocean than in space, simply because water conducts heat, unlike a vacuum.

Sure, there's a lot of room in space, but: - it will always take more energy to get into orbit than to install servers on Earth - the distance between the data center and us adds latency, which is not desirable for an LLM - the distance between the satellites themselves adds a huge amount of latency, making the data center less efficient

In a nutshell, there are physical problems that can never, ever be solved by science or technology, and even science fiction doesn't dare to invent scenarios this implausible. But then, coming from a pedophile who lied about his ties to Epstein, is it really surprising that he's lying and trying to divert attention right now.

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#864
post #842
post #800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real reason is, Elon has SpaceX and xAI. He can create an illusion of synergy and orders of magnitude advancements to boost the market cap and pocket all the money. He realized long time ago you don't need to deliver to play the market cap game, in fact it's better if you are selling a story far in the future rather than a something you can deliver now.

both can be true, he can excel at 'narrative' and also deliver me my Tesla and my starlink, it's not either or

Ok, he delivered your Tesla and your Starlink, but so far he has hasn't delivered your Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter...

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#867
post #120

As a SpaceX fan, I am saddened by this news. The only reason for xAI to join SpaceX is to offload Elon's Twitter debt in the upcoming IPO.

The Twitter debt is not that big in the grand scheme of things. Twitter has been absorbed into his AI company some time ago. SpaceX is a big business. And despite the decline, Tesla is also still a big business. Both generate quite a few billions in revenue.

The staggering amount of money Elon Musk raised for doing AI stuff is quite a bit more than what he ever expended on the Twitter value implosion. I think we can agree that there isn't much left of that. Also, whatever debt was issued for that was issued in dollars. We've had a few years of inflation and dollar devaluation recently. I don't think whatever Twitter debt there was is much of big headache for X at this point.

X.ai is controversial mainly because of Musk. But if you can look beyond that, it does actually have a bit of non trivial IP. Grok is not bad as a LLM. It's not necessarily best in class but it's close enough to be useful. Apple needs to license their AI from Google and OpenAI. MS outsources to OpenAI. Amazon doesn't really have their own models at all. So, as trillion dollar companies go, having your own in house developed model training pipeline that actually works isn't all that common yet.

Musk for all his failings has a talent for looking beyond the current day to day navel gazing that characterizes VC short term thinking and much of the activity in silicon valley. He clearly looks at space as a bit of underused real estate.

Star Link is one of those mad plans that actually seems to make sense now that he has proven that launching thousands of satellites into space isn't that big of a deal and can actually be profitable if you get a few million people to spend billions per month on reliable data connections.

AI data centers in space are similarly ludicrous unless you have a newly developed 100+ ton to orbit reusable launch capability at your disposal. Also, the nature of doing stuff in space is that it is a very people hostile environment. So having some in house AI capability isn't the worst idea for a space company with ambition, which like it or not SpaceX clearly has. I wouldn't call X.ai a bar gain. But what's the alternative if you are semi serious about controlling an armada of space craft across the solar system?

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#868

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We also shouldn't overlook the fact that the proposal entirely glosses over the implication of the alternative benefits we might realize if humanity achieved the incredible engineering and technical capacity necessary to make this version of space AI happen. Think about it. Elon conjures up a vision of the future where we've managed to increase our solar cell manufacturing capacity by two whole orders of magnitude an…

A lot of great inventions we now take for granted initially came with little motivation other than being able to kill each other more effectively. GPS, radar, jet engines, drones, super glue, microwaves, canned food, computers, even the internet. Contrary to the narrative of the internet being about sharing science, ARPANET was pushed by the DoD as a means of maintaining comms during nuclear war. It was then adopted…

Well computers are a funny story. The groundwork had been laid and the theoretical and engineering advances that would produce programmable digital computers were well underway in the 1930s. It would have happened very soon even if there was no war, but of course WWII happened right in 1939, so obviously computers made at that time had the purpose of calculating artillery paths or decrypting German messages. But it would be incorrect to say that military applications in WWII are the reason computers were invented.

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#869

> The basic math is that launching a million tons per year of satellites generating 100 kW of compute power per ton would add 100 gigawatts of AI compute capacity annually, with no ongoing operational or maintenance needs. Ultimately, there is a path to launching 1 TW/year from Earth. > My estimate is that within 2 to 3 years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space. This is so obviously false. Fo…

In my world, sending up new satellites is the new "maintenance". And it is certainly NOT for free!

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#870

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not SpaceX’s fault. It’s still a company to admire, it’s just that nobody appears to be able to stop Musk. I wonder why SpaceX investors aren’t revolting.

I wonder why the SpaceX top management is going along with this. It's clearly not in their long term interest to do so.

From what I understand, Musk owns 42% of the company and nearly 80% of the voting rights, so I guess that answers the question.

I guess this is the price you pay for buying shares with less voting rights.

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