Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 348 posts

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#121

Post by bryanlarsen »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #96
simianwords wrote: post #24

why is Tesla much higher? I thought Tesla's market cap was because of the self driving feature.

Waymo needs $16B to build what Tesla already has: manufacturing capacity. Without that, there are only so many cars they can put on the road. They've proven they can do the rides. But they haven't proven they can do it cost effectively. To scale up and start making a profit, they'll need to start building/buying lots of Waymo cars. That's not going to be cheap or fast. That's going to involve a lot of capital expense…

Waymo has 0 need for manufacturing capacity. There are dozens of companies that do that really well at a low margin already that'll be happy for the business. They made a timing mistake by choosing Zeekr for it, which is limiting their expansion at the moment. That's a lot easier/cheaper/quicker to fix by choosing a different partner than by building their own.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#122

Post by lapetitejort »

I do not think driverless will solve the main transportation problem we are dealing with as a society: we are giving up more space for cars, space that humans cannot use. We build more highways, widen roads, increase speed limits, and expect humans to stay out of this space. I live in a 100+ year old neighborhood. The roads were built for horse and buggy and streetcars. Now I have to beg to cross the road. My neighborhood has been effectively chopped up. I question whether I should walk to another block because I'll have to deal with crossing the street. Quiet houses now have the constant buzz of cars either from the ever-present highways or from the 40+ mph traffic right outside their doors. Driverless cars will not solve these problems. Fewer kids will die, partially from safe software, but mostly because they won't be able to leave their bubble without being strapped down into a car.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#123

Post by dmoy »

dmoy wrote: post #119
jFriedensreich wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't live in Berlin, but even if: have you ever taken public transport in less mainstream lines? Apart from nothing working and connections taking forever and operations stopping at night, horrible signage that lets you stress even more, you sit next to human excrements, hooligans coming from football games, nazis wanting to beat you up, stink, rude music and beggers. I sometimes miss it for sentimental value, but…

Is there really that much poop on Berlin public transit? Seattle has some of the highest per capital homeless in the US, and a dearth of public toilets, and yet there's not that much poop on our public transit. I am also skeptical that y'all's violent crime rate is higher than ours. Granted I haven't taken Berlin public transit in 20 yrs, so I don't know.

> I am also skeptical that y'all's violent crime rate is higher than ours.

Ok well I am wrong. Berlin's violent crime rate is 2-4x higher than Seattle? Huh. The homicide rate is within touching distance.

That was not what I expected, ok.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#124

Post by amccollum »

lazarus01 wrote: post #60
jFriedensreich wrote: post #35

No product had such a fast transition from novelty to "omg i never want to interact with a human again". I feel about 100% less stressed and happier using a waymo or riding motorbike or bicycle next to a waymo than with human drivers. I hope this next phase will bring availability and prices down. We need this in europe.

Im fortunate to live in an area dense with traditional taxis and Ubers, no Waymo yet. I rarely take taxis, the exception is when I have to haul my gear to the studio for a jam session. I always take a taxi, because it’s cheaper and faster than using an app to call an uber. On 80% of the trips, I end up having a nice chat with the driver and learn something new about humanity or myself. I really enjoy these interactio…

I used to feel this way. In the early days of "ride sharing," I preferred Lyft and would sit up front so I could have a conversation with the driver, which they encouraged. It was really fun for a while, and I enjoyed meeting people from different walks of life. Over time, though, transportation became much more functional for me, and now when I take non-autonomous rides, it's more irksome than enjoyable when drivers strike up conversations.

Why the change? I think a big part of your experience is the fact that you "rarely take taxis." Once you're doing it daily or near-daily, the amount of smalltalk becomes more tiresome. Also, with kids and a busy life, I'm usually either looking to get things done or enjoy a rare moment to myself as I'm moving from place-to-place. I agree with OP that Waymo is a huge step up on those dimensions. There's no other human in the same space to feel awkward around.

The fact that they drive more safely and smoothly is a huge improvement, as well. Ironically, I thought this was going to be something I would hate about Waymo. "You mean it drives the speed limit and follows all the traffic laws? It will take forever to get anywhere." It took approximately one ride for my perspective to completely flip. It's so much nicer to not feel the stress of a driver who is driving aggressively or jerking to a stop/start at every intersection. It's not like you can tell them to just ease up a bit, either. When we ride with our kids, we feel massively safer in Waymos.

Yes, it will be disruptive, and I don't particularly love the dominance that big tech has in all of our lives, but I do think Waymo is a marvel, and I hugely appreciate it as an option. As soon as they can take kids alone to all their various activities, it will be yet another massive unlock for parents.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#125

Post by dotBen »

spyckie2 wrote: post #58
kolbe wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alphabet is providing $13bn of the $16bn raise. What are you talking about? Do you really think that $3bn matters in the slightest?

This is why you are not the finance guy. My finance people care about the cents, a ROI of 7% is average but at 8.5% and now you are a world class asset of that inventory type. That’s sometimes the difference of a few hundred k out of 20m but they would not take the deal if it is slightly over due to their risk appetite. The 3b external either matters a ton to fit their risk models OR they are doing a favor to an outs…

Well, given that it is an equity sale, split still feels like it is the prorated amount so that alphabet continues to own its percentage - not more not less.

Obviously you're entitled to your view, but I don't think it's that kind of finance model right now - it's far too speculative and the upside too unknown to be adjusting for small amounts on risk models.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#126

Post by askl »

jFriedensreich wrote: post #110
askl wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need this in europe. No we don't. Your github says you're from Berlin, why the hell would you ever need a taxi in your life? Someone should just find a cure for for the fear techbros have of being near poor people.

I don't live in Berlin, but even if: have you ever taken public transport in less mainstream lines? Apart from nothing working and connections taking forever and operations stopping at night, horrible signage that lets you stress even more, you sit next to human excrements, hooligans coming from football games, nazis wanting to beat you up, stink, rude music and beggers. I sometimes miss it for sentimental value, but…

> have you ever taken public transport in less mainstream lines?

Yes, I have. I never drove a car myself and maybe used a taxi 10 times in the last 30 years.

Will waymo even be available in less mainstream areas? It seems more reasonable for them to go for dense places instead and leave the unprofitable regions for someone else.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#127

Post by guywithahat »

lapetitejort wrote: post #122

I do not think driverless will solve the main transportation problem we are dealing with as a society: we are giving up more space for cars, space that humans cannot use. We build more highways, widen roads, increase speed limits, and expect humans to stay out of this space. I live in a 100+ year old neighborhood. The roads were built for horse and buggy and streetcars. Now I have to beg to cross the road. My neighbo…

In my experience if I want to living in a bikable/walkable/transit oriented area, I have to move there. I think expecting this sort of stuff to come to you is too much, especially since most city centers have good transit options.

That said this is a tech forum, and while I don't think Waymo will be the only solution the tech is quite impressive and it's likely going to change how society works. Most people don't want to take public transit, they want to take a car and this is a much better solution for them. Forcing people to bike when they don't want to seems like bad form imo.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#128

Post by amccollum »

kccqzy wrote: post #90
spwa4 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always (as soon as I could) owned a car, first on independence, but soon that became on price. A car costs between $350 and $500 per month, plus about 2 gas tanks, let's say $600. That's only 10-15 short taxi rides and two long taxi rides at best. And now I have a family, there's 5 of us. A car is easily less than half the price of public transport for what I need to do (because you pay per person). I hate traffic,…

A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month. If it does, it’s a status symbol, not merely a tool to get from A to B, and therefore it is unfair to compare it against taxi rides. There’s nothing wrong with wanting a nicer more luxurious car for yourself. But it’s just ingenious to compare that against taxis with beaten-up and spartan but reliable cars.

The standard tax deduction for car travel is $0.70 / mile in the US, which accounts for things like insurance, gas, maintenance, and depreciation. So $500 / month is around 700 miles, which probably around 90% of US drivers surpass.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#129

Post by dotBen »

crazygringo wrote: post #76
dotBen wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already will be selling your ride data and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries). Ads in cars, partnerships with alternative destinations, etc. definitely would feel like enshitification for a demographic comparable to the hacker news one here. But these are all per session/user settings just like most of us have a paid Spotify account…

> If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that. That's actually a really interesting angle. The same way businesses often provide free parking now... what if they start providing free self-driving round trips? E.g. spend $75 or more at Whole Foods, and get free round-trip up to 20 miles or something. Especially for bulky items like groceries where a car makes a…

It makes particular sense for vertically integrated conglomerates like Amazon-Whole Foods which owns Zoox.

I buy Whole Foods French fries shipped to the store via Amazon logistics and purchase those at Amazon owned Whole Foods, at a discount via my Prime membership on my Amazon credit card which is processed on AWS infrastructure and I ride home on an Amazon owned Zoox that also runs on AWS infrastructure.

Amazon owns so much of the profit margin across that stack that they can afford to give rides away for example.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#130

Post by crazygringo »

doctoboggan wrote: post #9
thundergolfer wrote: post #4

I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.

> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified. Oh ye of little faith! Here are some ideas off the top of my head, I am sure the suits at Google already have a bigger list. * Ads in vehicle * Adjust route so you see partner companies or billboards * Offering alternative destinations (I see you are going to Burger King, would you rather go to our partner McDonalds?) * Listening to conversations in car * Se…

Ads in vehicles are a sure thing. Also a sure thing you'll be able to pay a little extra to turn them off, which is basically just the full price of the trip unsubsidized by ads.

It'll be up to you, just like whether you want your Netflix cheaper with ads, or more expensive but without.

I see that choice as a good thing.

The rest of your suggestions are incredibly unlikely. Google doesn't even scan your Gmail anymore, you think they're going to create a privacy scandal by listening to your conversations? And they certainly don't sell your Maps timeline which is far more valuable than just a few car trips, so why on earth would they do that with Waymo? Nor does Google Maps offer to send you to Burger King when you hit directions for McDonald's. And taking a longer route that wastes time, battery and money, on the chance you'll be looking out the window to see a billboard rather than looking at your phone, doesn't make sense at all.

Post reply on HN