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Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

bloomberg.com

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Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#21

Post by dotBen »

doctoboggan wrote: post #9
thundergolfer wrote: post #4

I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.

> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified. Oh ye of little faith! Here are some ideas off the top of my head, I am sure the suits at Google already have a bigger list. * Ads in vehicle * Adjust route so you see partner companies or billboards * Offering alternative destinations (I see you are going to Burger King, would you rather go to our partner McDonalds?) * Listening to conversations in car * Se…

They already will be selling your ride data and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries).

Ads in cars, partnerships with alternative destinations, etc. definitely would feel like enshitification for a demographic comparable to the hacker news one here. But these are all per session/user settings just like most of us have a paid Spotify account and never see advertising and those who don't get a very different monetized experience.

What is exciting about monetization like this is the possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#22

Post by kolbe »

andsoitis wrote: post #12
pm90 wrote: post #7

Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a “serious” valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties? I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn’t just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by Google.

Companies raise money for big projects all the time. From issuing debt, to issuing equity.

He's talking specifically about Waymo's situation. Alplabet, a company who has $75bn of FCF, owns 80% of Waymo. A $16bn capital injection is meaningless to Alphabet, so he's wondering why they're going through the trouble.

He raises a good point, and the answer is likely that they can run into legal issues by either under or overvaluing the company in a capital raise where they're the controlling shareholder, then the IRS or existing investors have grounds for a lawsuit (or audit). They likely just want to bring the capital raise out in the open to get a fair market value, and then they will be 90% of the capital in the raise.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#23

Post by estearum »

ronnier wrote: post #19
thundergolfer wrote: post #4

I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.

> but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified My guess is that once Waymo starts to extremely take off, law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen. It will disproportionately impact an entire segment of the population and will put them out of work.

No they won't. The product is so outrageously superior on every dimension to the status quo that municipalities will figure out whatever they need to in order to accommodate them.

You think the folks on City Council enjoy chauffeuring their own children around and will block a solution to it?

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#25

Post by JumpCrisscross »

ronnier wrote: post #19
thundergolfer wrote: post #4

I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.

> but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified My guess is that once Waymo starts to extremely take off, law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen. It will disproportionately impact an entire segment of the population and will put them out of work.

> law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen

No they won’t. And Waymo’s playbook would be Uber’s if they did: preëmpt at the state and federal levels.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#26

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

46493168 wrote: post #17
pm90 wrote: post #7

Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a “serious” valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties? I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn’t just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by Google.

Why would you bet your own money when you could bet someone else’s?

If you are betting on a winner why split with others?

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#27

Post by Kique »

b33j0r wrote: post #16

Just don’t take one if another one is operating nearby. If they see another waymo, having passed the insecure emotional Turing test, they get self-conscious and wander the neighborhood backstreets until the other one has dropped off its passengers. (Just experienced this multiple times in Phoenix. It’s impressive at navigating and braking, but not rational planning or flocking.)

This has not been my experience at all and I take Waymos pretty frequently, especially at popular areas like concerts or airports you'll see a bunch of them dropping off/picking up people without issues.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#28

Post by kolbe »

dotBen wrote: post #15
pm90 wrote: post #7

Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a “serious” valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties? I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn’t just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by Google.

It's a very capital intensive operation given the amount of vehicles that need to be carried on the balance sheet. There are many reasons why a conglomerate like Alphabet doesn't want to hold all of that directly on the balance sheet, which is why Waymo is run as a subsidiary with its own sources of capital. When I was at Uber 10 plus years ago and we were ideating autonomous vehicles. The general consensus was that…

Alphabet is providing $13bn of the $16bn raise. What are you talking about? Do you really think that $3bn matters in the slightest?

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#30

Post by lurk2 »

re-thc wrote: post #18
pm90 wrote: post #7

Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a “serious” valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties? I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn’t just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by Google.

> Why does Google need outside investors? i.e. why should I use my money if I can use someone elses'?

If you use someone else’s money you have to pay him back with interest or equity.
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