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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#481

Post by ezconnect »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #437
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

Economic crashes are hard to predict. In the end stock markets are a bit irrational. They don't crash just because there are good rational reasons. And then some irrational thing triggers a mass panic when you least expected and the whole thing crashes. The circumstances and timing (it's been a while) suggest we are probably closer to a crash happening. From a loan/interest point of view, the dollar de-valuating a bi…

The next crash will probably be a race for assets or hard assets for the people who can afford it. It means the stock market will reach all time high, gold all time high and land prices skyrocketing as people try to escape from the dollar currency. The US President will still be proud the economy is still good because the stock market is at all time high and the people are rich because their homes are at all time high valuation but the middle class can barely afford food because there are no available jobs that pays good enough.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#482

Post by sph »

zahlman wrote: post #222

> Here’s the current price of silver. Not shown on the chart (and which couldn't have been predicted at the time of writing) is today's crash of almost 30% in that price. Speculative bubbles happen. The narrative of people losing faith in currency made no sense, because that should pump the prices of durable commodities as well, if not instead of precious metals.

By crash do you mean a return to the prices of early January 2026?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#483

Post by jfyi »

robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

The alternative is recognizing that China offers a level of long term stability that the US is failing to match. That stability is worth a premium. You may not believe it's a high one, but our trade partners facing random tariff changes every month see it differently, even if just for a negotiating tactic at the current stage.

We also need to seriously adjust our line of thinking at what they are capable of. The "copycat" era is ending. Our supply chains have hammered their youth with generations of engineering knowledge. If you are relying on an ideological difference to assume they are not capable of innovation, you are making a strategic mistake.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#484

Post by user3939382 »

The debt clock is a proxy for the total amount of plastic we route from shipping containers -> landfills. Plastic is oil, oil is energy. Energy can be exchanged for labor globally therefore energy prices money not the other way around. It’s our civilizational bottleneck. The true cost of oil isn’t priced in to begin with and we have it bound up for 500+ years. This is creating a massive distortion in the global economy which physics will insist on regardless of monetary policy.

Or we burn the oil -> heat into the atmosphere via silicon doing things like routing “wyd” texts around dozens of network devices across the country when the message doesn’t have that value.

The economics of how we allocate energy makes no sense and we debate how to fix this via policy.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#485

Post by aarontice »

3 more years, then the macroeconomic headwinds from aging millennials will be past peak earnings and rather than funding cap weighted index, they will be draining cap weighted index.

1929 silent generation decade or depression after.

1967 post war Baby boom from The Greatest Generation, followed by decade plus of stagflation and recessions.

1999, after a two decade run of the stock market going from 1000 on the Dow Jones in 1980 to 10,000 on the Dow Jones in 2000, the baby boomers born to the greatest generation, peak, earning ears, leading to the lost decade afterwards.

Two decades of stock market returns from 6000 on the Dow to 60,000 on the Dow, followed by post peak millennial earnings…

One does not speak unless One knows.

You know nothing Jon Snow.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#486

Post by SecretDreams »

BLKNSLVR wrote: post #474
hypeatei wrote: post #467

> It feels as though all we need is a spark. And yet, many sparks seem to have come and gone. Big market moves, in stocks or yields, that have recovered Yes, in a five year span we've had three 20% drawdowns in the stock market that have all recovered which is unprecedented. IMO, anyone who thinks we're going to crash and have a lost decade is not looking at the bigger picture. The Federal Reserve exists to allow the…

Quoting someone else: "Bears sound smart, Bulls make money"

This goes really good with "even a broken clock is right sometimes".

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#487

Post by camgunz »

YZF wrote: post #392
farss wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "rules-based international order" was a fiction popularized by US policy makers who wanted to quietly substitute it for international law, so they could violate said laws, while still vaguely gesturing at moral authority.

International law was and is also a fiction. We have various conventions and agreements. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_law "In the 1940s through the 1970s, the dissolution of the Soviet bloc and decolonisation across the world resulted in the establishment of scores of newly independent states.[67] As these former colonies became their own states, they adopted European views of international law.[68] A…

Laws aren't fictitious just because people/countries break them. No one writes a law thinking "that settles that, no more embezzling." Laws simply tell you how that system works: you embezzle, FBI arrests you, you get tried, etc.

Also the US always made a big deal about not joining various treaties, with their reasoning explicitly being "we actually plan to do a lot of things that would violate that treaty." In that sense, that shows the US actually had respect for those institutions.

Also, the west benefited from this arrangement. Most western countries could benefit from the rules based order, and when they needed a little pump, the US broke some rules and brought home a treat for the home team. You might argue this undermines the whole enterprise, but my counterargument is this is the longest period of relative peace and prosperity humankind has ever experienced, so although it wasn't perfect, it was a huge improvement.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#488

Post by kasey_junk »

chrisco255 wrote: post #282
deadbabe wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people say this… ok so you buy at 120 and now it’s back at 85, no big deal that’s the same as a few weeks ago!?

Clearly very few people were buying at 120 which is why it fell back to 85. It's a highly volatile commodity. Commodities markets go through booms and busts all the time and you never even hear about most of them.

Your point about commodities is broadly correct but that was a historic daily draw down in silver as well.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#489

Post by christkv »

I find it crazy that people are so obsessed with the current administration they want the world economy to crash. I can tell you that in a current climate a complete world economy crash is going to play out very very badly politically all over the world. I have a real bad feeling it will be a replay of the 30s.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#490

Post by jfyi »

krapp wrote: post #149
amanaplanacanal wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure left vs right is that useful a distinction. Both the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany called themselves socialist, and both claimed to be doing what was best for their people.

>Both the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany called themselves socialist, and both claimed to be doing what was best for their people. The Nazis weren't socialist. They appropriated the term as a propaganda tactic, a means of appealing to the masses. North Korea calls itself a democratic republic, but is obviously neither. One can't simply assume political labels to be correct. In terms of their actual policies and belief…

Germany and Italy practiced Corporatism in that era.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatism

This was their economic "Holy Bible"...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Charter_of_1927

If you really want a rabbit hole, compare the Labor Charter of 1927 to Project 2025 while assuming the free market rhetoric in the later is deliberate misdirection.

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